At this point of the season, we’ve seen enough of most players to get a firm idea of their abilities and to form concrete ideas about their fantasy value. Well, I’m here to tell you to throw everything you know out the window!

Okay, not actually – but now feels like a good time to remind people of the sunk-cost fallacy and how that applies to their teams. In short, the sunk-cost fallacy suggests that just because you’ve invested a lot in a player, whether via draft or trade, it doesn’t mean you should continue keeping them on your team if they’re not providing the value necessary to earn that roster spot. Don’t just hold them to their preseason value in your internal rankings – make sure you are constantly re-evaluating and remember that you always want to pay for future performance, not past performance.

The same applies in reverse too. Just because you’ve decided not to invest in a player earlier in the year, doesn’t mean you should anchor them to their original value point. They might just surprise you in the second half. So, who are some players that could make strides in raising their value in the second half? Let’s take a look at a few names below.

Spencer Arrighetti – SP – HOU – 9% Yahoo, 27% CBS

Arrighetti is a great example of what I mentioned above. After his first few starts, I considered myself “out” on Arrighetti and I largely put him out of my mind based off a bloated ERA and WHIP that didn’t show much sign of coming down. Now, a few starts later, I find myself intrigued by what Arrigheti has done the past month.

Over the last 30 days, Arrighetti has pitched to a 4.18 ERA, 1.25 WHIP over 28 innings, to go with a 31:10 K:BB and a pair of quality starts. While those numbers aren’t eye-popping, they’re a vast improvement from his overall numbers on the season (5.65 ERA / 1.58 WHIP). Those types of ratios rarely keep you in the rotation plans of a playoff contender such as Houston for long – so what did the Astros see from Arrighetti that encouraged them enough to stick with him?

From the outside, we can only guess – but if I had to, I would point to his K/9 of 10.05 (well above-average for a starter) and his pair of strong secondary offerings. His slider (11.5% usage) has a 122 Stuff+ and his curveball (19.8% usage) has a 114 Stuff+, making both a good step above league average. Unfortunately, his fastball (41.6% usage) drags down the entire endeavor, languishing with a Stuff+ of just 85. He also exhibits an elite level of extension (96th percentile) that helps his pitches play up, with a higher perceived velocity than your average pitcher.

The reason I point out the usage rates in particular is because Arrighetti has made a notable change in his pitch repertoire since being promoted. At Triple-A in 2023, threw his slider 35% of the time but has thrown it 1/3 as often in 2024. Though a varied arsenal makes each pitch harder to pick out and hit, some pitchers just thrive better that way (see: Spencer Strider). While Arrighetti is no Strider, he could be a tweak or two away from truly finding his groove and making an impact on your team during the playoff stretch.

League size recommendation: 14-team leagues

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