Nathan’s 2026 Fantasy Baseball Bold Predictions

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  • By Nathan Baker

    Last Updated on March 18, 2026 6:42 pm by Paul Williamson | Published: March 18, 2026

    With less than two weeks to go until opening day, prediction season is well underway, and we’ve got some bold calls for you to ponder amidst all of the “Ohtani MVP” and “Skenes CY Young” predictions.

    I’ll sort these loosely in order of boldness, from least to most, with the last prediction a pot shot that may just have a prayer of coming good.

    A real chance…

    Andrew Painter will struggle, but Zack Wheeler will replace him in the rotation and pitch
    like an ace again
    The Phillies head into 2026 with the hope that their aging core still has one more playoff run in them, supplementing the same group of players with a pair of well regarded prospects. Justin Crawford divides opinion on his viability as an everyday player, but Andrew Painter is a consensus top 40 prospect, and was ranked even higher prior to his own UCL tear in 2022.

    Despite being back to full health, his fastball velocity and shape has not returned to what it was before the injury, and his questionable ability to maintain his stuff throughout a full major league start leaves me skeptical that he’s ready for a full-time big league role.

    The Phillies don’t have any other rotation options to start the season, so he’ll get that chance, but he struggles to miss bats to the degree that he has in his minor league past, and Zack Wheeler will return from thoracic outlet syndrome to replace him in the rotation. Pitchers who undergo TOS surgery have a poor rate of recovery post-op, but Wheeler has the venous type of the injury, which produces more favorable outcomes than most.

    His pitchability and wide arsenal will compensate for any reduced velocity, and he’ll be back to being a force at the top of the Phillies rotation when he eventually returns.

    Anthony Volpe (finally) breaks out

    There may not be a more maligned baseball player in New York, but much of the criticism thrown Volpe’s way lacks nuance. The former top prospect is still only 24 years old and saw drastic improvements in swing speed and exit velocity pay off at the beginning of 2025, before tearing his labrum and attempting to play through the injury.

    His improvements at the plate regressed, and his numbers fell on a slow and steady decay that lead to a trade for Jose Caballero to take his job. He’ll have to earn every start he gets, but he’s got the talent and the drive to win that job once he’s fully healthy. A 20/20 SS at pick 366? Sign me up!

    The Rockies pitching experiment will work

    Paul DePodesta accepted what may be the most intriguing POBO position in the league this offseason, and begun rebuilding baseball’s worst team by acquiring a slew of starting pitchers with bottom-barrel stuff. Tomoyuki Sugano, Vallente Bellozo and Jose Quintana all hold some of the worst strikeout rates in baseball, with well below-average velocity and movement profiles that rarely miss bats (as does long-time Rockie Kyle Freeland). For years, Rockies’ teams pursued strikeouts with their starting staff, hoping that reducing balls in play would mitigate the effects of the hitter friendly air and dimensions at mile high, but that philosophy ignored the detrimental effect that altitude has on pitch shape.

    All pitches will break less at altitude as a result of the reduced drag on the baseball, but the effects are particularly noticeable in the heavy reduction in IVB on four-seam fastballs, reducing their movement deviation from off-speed pitches. Ultimately, this effect can turn stuff monsters into below average pitchers (see Chase Dollander), but by acquiring a series of pitchers accustomed to pitching with mediocre stuff, the variance of outcomes should (theoretically) be smaller. I don’t expect the Rockies to be competitive, but they’ll avoid having a bottom five pitching staff in baseball next season, which would be quite the accomplishment.

    The Toronto Blue Jays will miss the playoffs

    In another universe, Jeff Hoffman throws a 3-2 fastball to Miguel Rojas and the Blue Jays win the World Series; they were that close to one of the most magical, improbable titles of all time, taking down the best and richest team in baseball in a year where everyone counted them out. Unfortunately for Blue Jays fans, this universe is not reality, and as it so often goes, the magic that brought them to the doorstep of a championship cannot be relied upon year-to-year.

    The Jays were and still are a terrific ballclub, but they won’t benefit from the widespread ~80th percentile outcomes across the board in 2026. While I believe passing on Bo Bichette on a potential long term deal will prove to be a wise choice, his production will be difficult to replace in that lineup, and the hyper-competitive AL East will see them finish no higher than third.

    JJ Wetherholt (253 ADP) ranks higher than Trevor Story (105 ADP)

    Story stayed on the field for all of 2026, marking the first time he’s played a full season since the pandemic, and his results were impressive, slugging 25 HR and stealing 31 bases in 157 games. The slash line was solid, but his swing decisions declined below the bottom quartile of the league, leaving him in a tenuous spot just outside of the top 100 in fantasy drafts.

    JJ Wetherholt has a top 2 hit tool in the minor leagues, a path to every day playing time in the major leagues, and will likely gain 2B eligibility after a few weeks in the majors. Strangely, the rookie has a higher floor than the 33 year old veteran, but the ceiling is there too, with 20/20 upside to join his batting average that will likely start with a three. Pair the ability with Story’s extensive injury history, and this ~150 pick gap can pretty conceivably be bridged.

    Eury Perez will get Cy Young votes

    Many will forget just how impressively Perez took the league by storm when he debuted in 2023, and only a Tommy John surgery could halt what would’ve been an electric second season in the big leagues.

    After missing all of 2024, Perez returned near the end of 2025 and looked back to his best self, seeing a full return in his fast velocity and shape while showcasing improved command on his secondaries. His health should continue to be the only thing holding him back from greatness, and I’m predicting that despite a soft innings cap around 160 IP, Perez will dazzle enough to earn some down ballot appreciation.

    The Pittsburgh Pirates will be the worst defensive team of all time

    The 2017 New York Mets currently hold the worst single season team OAA with a -58, and watch out, because these Pirates have some butchers out there. Of their projected starting eight position players, only Jared Triolo projects as a meaningfully above average defender, with Brandon Lowe, Bryan Reynolds and Oneil Cruz amongst the worst defenders at their positions in the sport.

    Cruz has every chance to be a good defensive player, but next to him will also be Ryan O’Hearn, a natural first baseman, with two more first baseman on the field (Lowe and Spencer Horwitz) and last year’s second baseman at shortstop, with a well below average arm.

    The fantasy fallout from this? Beware of Pirates pitching, particularly those who pitch more to contact *cough* Mitch Keller *cough*.

    Kodai Senga will get Cy Young votes, Luis Robert Jr. will get MVP votes, and the Mets still won’t win the division

    A three-for rounding out the bold predictions, and I’ll try not to ramble too long. Kodai Senga was one of the best pitchers in baseball last season prior to suffering a freak hamstring injury covering first base; an injury which he wasn’t recovered from upon his return, as evidenced with reduced velocity, command and his own testimony.

    Senga’s 1.39 ERA before the break would’ve been enough to enter discussions with Paul Skenes, but after missing a month and returning with eight starts of 6.56 ERA ball, his season ended in the minor leagues as the Mets collapsed. With his spring training velocity back to the range of his prime years, he’ll be right back in ace form, devastating hitters with the unique and unhittable ghost fork.

    I’ve been at the top of the LouBob hill for long enough that I may as well die on it, but my excitement with him finding a new home is exceeded by his own enthusiasm. Out of a toxic environment in Chicago, Robert Jr. needs to 1.) stay healthy and 2.) improve his swing decisions; the latter will surely improve with the Mets terrific player development staff, while the former is being addressed by both the Mets and Robert Jr.’s agent Scott Boras, although injury outlooks are always somewhat of a crapshoot.

    And for all of that, the lack of production from Marcus Semien, team defense and a bad bullpen will cost them a chance at the division; unless the Braves somehow suffer more Mets-esque injuries than the Metropolitans, which is part of the way towards being the case.

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    March 18, 2026, 6:42 pm