Nathan Baker’s End of Season Player Profile Review

  • With the season coming to a close, and plenty of predictive player profiles under my belt, it’s only fair that I go back and evaluate my takes from 2025 with the benefit of hindsight to see how I’ve done. I’ll go through each of my player features from this season, briefly describe the conclusion I had reach reached for each one, and assign myself a grade on accuracy out of ten.

    Mason Montgomery
    My first profile of the season was definitely my worst, as I greatly overestimated the command improvements that Mason Montgomery had made, and I certainly didn’t foresee the drop off in stuff that he endured as the season wore on. Given my prediction of him being a premium late inning arm, this can only be a 1/10.

    Jacob Wilson
    Luckily for me, it gets a lot better in a hurry, with Jacob Wilson performing almost exactly as I had predicted across this season. I pinned him for a 125 wRC+ and a 4 fWAR, well above his projections elsewhere, and he produced a 124 wRC+ and 3.5 fWar in 122 games; more than on pace for a 4 WAR season without injury. Especially with how early in the season this one was, I’ll follow it with a second extreme grade, 10/10.

    Chase Dollander
    I won’t give myself any credit for predicting Dollander to have stark home/road splits, especially because his splits were far more extreme than I ever could’ve imagined. A 9.98 ERA at home is well beyond the threshold of unrosterable, while a 3.46 ERA at home, with a drastically lower WHIP and better strikeout rate, is quite valuable for fantasy purposes. Fantasy wise, my wait and see recommendation was wise, but I really should’ve talked more about the home/road splits for streaming purposes. 5/10.

    Chandler Simpson
    My warnings about Simpson potentially being demoted for his defense were spot on, and while he was a high average, low OBP/SLG hitter with loads of steals, he wasn’t quite as proficient at the plate or on the bases as I envisioned. 43 steals in 107 games is impressive, but he was caught 12 times, and his .300 average still yields a below average hitter due to the one- dimensional nature of his bat. I’ll give myself a 7/10, because of my recommendation not to dump a quarter of your FAAB money on him.

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