Since his major league debut 2019, Fernando Tatís Jr. performed like a superstar, posting over 6.4 fWAR per 162 games throughout parts of five seasons. After missing all of 2022 through injury and suspension, Tatís Jr. found a new home in right field, winning the platinum glove in his first full season at the position.

His bat was not as potent last year, primarily due to an increase in chase resulting in a substantially worse on-base percentage, but he still hit 25 home runs and stole 29 bases. In 2024, he’s made strides with the bat, and far more significantly than what meets the eye at a glance.

The What
Tatís Jr. holds a respectable .279/.354/.468 slash line with 14 HR, enough to get an all star nod even with regressed defense. These are good, albeit unspectacular numbers, but his peripherals are certainly spectacular. Tatis has a .309 xBA (30 point difference from actual BA) and a .553 xSLG (85!! point difference from actual SLG). This puts him ahead of stars like Bryce Harper, Mookie Betts and Francisco Lindor in both expected categories, and the evidence of elite process doesn’t stop there.

Tatís Jr. ranks in the 90th percentile or higher in xBA, xSLG, xwOBA, barrel %, hard-hit % and average exit velocity. His chase rate and whiff rate are drastically improved from last year, and his K:BB has improved as well. His offensive improvement this season is all encompassing, with the exception of his lower stolen base pace (8 so far).

The How and Why
Tatís Jr. made strides in two significant but simple areas of his offensive game, greatly improving his swing decisions while also enhancing his plate coverage.

Crushing everything middle-away is a constant for Tatís Jr., posting an xwOBA over .450 on pitches in that zone for every year (excluding 2020) of his career. Slight adjustments to his set up now enable him to cover inside pitches as well, posting an xwOBA of .425 on pitches down or middle-in.

A quicker swing trigger factors into his improved plate coverage as well, but is more important in limiting his chase rate in the shadow zone. His swing percentage is down as a whole, and the benefits have disproportionately affected shadow zone run value, going from -15 last year to +1 so far in 2024.

The Value
Tatís Jr. has been cleared to resume baseball activities, and is expected to return in August. As discussed, his surface numbers are impressive, putting him in a similar echelon to Riley Greene and Isaac Paredes, who are both excellent players.

Provided he’s fully healthy upon his return, Tatís Jr. should be viewed as a late first/early second round quality talent. Project-ably, he’s similar to Yordan Álvarez, Gunnar Henderson and Rafael Devers, yet will likely command less value upon his return.

If you are a comfortable playoff position in your fantasy league, acquiring Tatís Jr. now is your best bet, and using Anthony Santander (or similar player) should be more than enough to get it done. If you are still in the mix, waiting a few weeks might be best, at which point you could reasonably parlay Steven Kwan into Tatís Jr. and a pitcher, and come out comfortably on top.

Regardless of your current playoff position in your fantasy leagues, Tatís Jr. presents as the perfect buy-low candidate, both in terms of injury and performance. A September tear upon his return is to be expected, and should cost far less than any other superstar.