Fantasy Baseball Year in Review – Padres

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  • By Anthony Kates

    Last Updated on February 14, 2026 12:51 pm by Anthony Kates | Published: November 10, 2025

    The Padres came into the 2025 season looking to build off of their very successful 2024 season – they won the second most games in franchise history (93), had one of the five best offenses in baseball, the sixth best rotation, seventh best bullpen and gave the Dodgers everything they could handle before falling the National League Divisional series. Unfortunately, budding stars Jackson Merrill and Michael King missed plenty of time due to injury, they received virtually zero offensive production from their catcher and second basemen, Yu Darvish threw just 72 innings and Dylan Cease was absolutely dreadful (outside of his strikeouts). So how did they handle all of that adversity? They won 90 games, finishing three games behind the Dodgers for the National League West crown (tied with the Mariners for the 7th best record in baseball), even though they had just the 22nd best rotation and the 13th best offense (but also the best bullpen in the league), ultimately losing to the Cubs in a Wild Card series.

    Catcher

    The Padres catcher group had one of the worst offensive outputs at the position. None of Freddy Fermin, Elias Diaz or Martin Maldonado were worthy of a fantasy roster spot in 2025. As a group, they combined for 60 runs, 15 home runs, 55 RBI and a .214 average, with a .600 OPS. Both Diaz and Maldonado are free agents and will not be retained, leaving the bulk of the starts behind the plate to Fermin in 2026. It will once again be an offensive black hole and he can be ignored in all but the absolute deepest leagues.

    First Base

    Padres first basemen hit the fewest home runs of any team in 2025, but they also had the lowest strikeout rate, thanks to starting the contact machine that is Luis Arraez. Arraez had the lowest strikeout rate in baseball, among qualified hitters, with a career low 3.1%, but he also hit the fewest home runs among first basemen with 500 or more plate appearances, with just eight, which was four more than last year. It was just the second time in his career that he hit lower than .300, even though he had the best contact rate of his career and the lowest swinging strike rate he’s ever produced. He is a free agent and will surely find himself in a new uniform for the 2026 season and can be a fantasy afterthought for most leagues. Ryan O’Hearn was added at the trade deadline, after making the All-Star Game for the Orioles, to add a some more pop to the lineup and improve upon the first base offensive output. Though he was not as impressive as he was in Baltimore, he was a better producer than Arraez, posting a 112 wRC+ in 183 plate appearances, compared to Arraez’s 104 on the season. O’Hearn is also a free agent and will likely find himself in another uniform in 2026, leaving Gavin Sheets as the current favorite to start at first for the Padres in 2026, unless they sign someone in free agency or trade for a starter. He hit 19 home runs, with 57 runs, 71 RBI, two stolen bases and a .252 batting average in 545 plate appearances split between left field, designated hitter and first base. He set full season career highs in nearly every single offensive category, finishing the year as the 60th best outfielder. He will not be first base eligible to start the season, but is worth a late round pick in slightly deeper leagues, just in case he can build on his breakout season in San Diego.

     Second Base

    Jake Cronenworth was the seventh most valuable second baseman in MLB last season, but only generated the 24th most value at the position in fantasy. Among second basemen with 450 or more plate appearances in 2025, he finished tied for 16th in home runs, with 11 (out of 25), 19th in runs, with 61, 14th in RBI, with 59, tied for 20th in steals, with 3, and 16th in batting average, with a .246. It was his best overall offensive output since 2021 and would have been even better if he hadn’t ended the year with just 515 plate appearances. Will Wagner and Jose Iglesias also saw time at second base, but neither was worthy of any fantasy attention. Cronenworth should only be drafted in deeper leagues in 2026, 15 teams or more or in instances where you start a corner and/or middle infielder in addition to the standard infield positions.

    Third Base

    Manny Machado has been a top four fantasy third baseman for 11 years now. The only third baseman better over that time frame is elite producer Jose Ramirez, who is buoyed by his stolen base output. Machado turned 33 in the middle of the season, but has been steady as ever. He has hit 27 or more home runs in every full season since 2015 and has just one season with a wRC+ under 113 since the same year. He had his best barrel and hard hit rates since 2021, maintaining elite swing decisions and elevating the ball more than he did in 2024. He was the fourth drafted third baseman in 2025 and that is where he finished, surpassed by just Ramirez, Junior Caminero and Eugenio Suarez. Machado should once again be one of the first four or five third baseman off the board in 2026 and should be treated as a top fantasy option at the hot corner until he proves he is no longer the same producer.

    Shortstop

    Xander Bogaerts is no longer the elite offensive producer that he once was, finishing the year as the 19th most valuable fantasy shortstop. He finished the year with 63 runs, 11 home runs, 53 RBI, 20 stolen bases and a .263 batting average, good enough for a 104 wRC+. Though the stolen base total was a career high, he matched his home run total from 2024, even though he had 89 more plate appearances in 2025. He hasn’t had a barrel rate over 6.9% or a hard hit rate higher than 39.5% since 2021, though his statcast numbers last year were his best since that season. Even as his bat worsens, his glove should keep him in the lineup, but he isn’t really a viable fantasy option except for in deeper leagues. Expect his draft price to be even lower than it was in 2025, when he was the 14th shortstop off the board around pick 155.

    Outfield

    Fernando Tatis produced his second 6 WAR season and his best offensive season since 2021. He set career bests in plate appearances, runs, stolen bases, walk rate, strikeout rate, chase rate, swinging strike rate and on-base percentage (500 or more plate appearances division), hit 21 or more home runs in his fifth straight non-COVID season, continued his streak of 10 or more stolen bases (every year of his career) and had one of his best defensive seasons of his career to boot. Tatis will turn 27 in January and will enter his prime with really only one flaw: he struggles to elevate the ball, with a career 34.7% fly ball rate (46.3% ground ball rate, career). He was the fifth outfielder off the board in 2025 drafts and finished the year as the number six fantasy outfielder and is essentially a top-8 lock when healthy. He will again be a top 15 pick in 2026.

    Jackson Merrill struggled to replicate his amazing rookie season, missing 47 games due to a variety of injuries (hamstring strain, concussion, ankle sprain). Overall, he hit 16 home runs, with 59 runs, 67 RBI and just one stolen base, batting .264 with a 116 wRC+ and a .784 OPS. His walk rate was up, but so was his strikeout rate; his statcast data was nearly identical to his rookie data, which was already pretty good, he hit more fly balls than ground balls (and had a line drive rate north of 20%), though his plate discipline took a hit. He chase more pitches, swung more, made less contact and had more swinging strikes, though it wasn’t terrible overall. Merrill was the ninth outfielder off the board in 2025 drafts, around pick 27, but should surely be available later in 2026 drafts.

    Ramon Laureano was acquired (with Ryan O’Hearn) from the Orioles at the trade deadline, after earning an All-Star Game invite and producing the best 82 game stretch of his career. Before he was traded to the Padres, he scored 45 runs, hit 15 home runs, drove in 46 base runners, stole four bases and hit .290 in 290 plate appearances. In 198 plate appearances for the Padres, he scored 27 runs, hit nine home runs, drove in 30 base runners, stole three bases and hit .269. It was a drop off from his Orioles production, but he still generated a 127 wRC+ and an .812 OPS, which was an improvement on Gavin Sheets, who was manning left field before Laureano showed up. He finished the season as the 23rd best fantasy outfielder, despite having just 488 plate appearances, the only player in the top 25 to have less than 500 (Byron Buxton had the next fewest, with 542), but will probably be drafted somewhere in the top 40 to 50 outfielder range in 2026 drafts.

    Pitchers

    Nick Pivetta was the best starting pitcher for the Padres in 2025, producing the best season of his career. He set a career high in innings pitched and strikeouts, boasting the best home run rate of his career, while striking out more than a batter per inning and walking fewer than 2.5 hitters per nine innings pitched. He found that success despite some pretty poor statcast numbers, though getting to call Petco Park your home helps a ton with limiting home runs. He had pretty average plate discipline numbers, with hitters chasing fewer pitches than they did the last two seasons, posting his highest contact rate since 2022 and his lowest swinging strike rate since the same season. But he had one of the best four-seam fastballs among all starting pitchers and four above-average secondaries, attacking hitters early and often. Pivetta is usually a decent pitcher, but this was his first truly great season. He finished the season as the 13th most valuable fantasy starter, after being drafted as the 45th starter, but his 2026 value will fall somewhere in between there. It is tough to bet on a replication of this season in his age-33 season, so he won’t be drafted like a top-15 starter, but odds are he will be drafted a lot closer to pick 100 than 200 in 2026.

    Michael King’s second season in San Diego did not go as well as his first, though it has more to do with injury problems, than performance issues. He was diagnosed with a thoracic nerve injury in his right shoulder in May and missed nearly three months of the season, made one start off of the injured list, then was immediately placed back on the IL with knee inflammation, which resulted in him missing another month of starts. All in all, he was only able to throw 73.1 innings over 15 starts, striking out 76 batters, walking 26 and allowing 12 home runs, with a 3.44 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP. He had the worst barrel rate of his career but kept his hard-hit rate under 40%, though he also had a career high fly ball rate. Batters chased fewer pitches, made more contact and swung and missed less often than in 2024, as King attacked hitters with a first-pitch strike at the lowest rate of his career. Padres fans and fantasy managers will be hoping for a bounce back season in 2026, though they will not have to draft him inside the first 65 picks like they did in 2025 (early NFBC ADP data has King being drafted anywhere from pick 77 to pick 176, with an ADP of 132, the 49th pitcher off the board – this includes relievers).

    Dylan Cease was the 11th pitcher drafted, on average, in 2025 drafts. He ended the season as the 100th most valuable starter. You’d assume he must have missed a bunch of time due to injury, but you’d be wrong. He threw 168 innings, he struck out 215 batters…but he also had a 4.55 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP. That is the 15th worst ERA and tied for 15th worst WHIP among the 65 starting pitchers who threw at least 150 innings this past season. He had the fourth worst walk rate, but the third best strikeout rate. His FIP, xFIP and SIERA were all a full run lower than his ERA, so he did suffer from some bad luck. Cease has generated at least 3.4 WAR or more in each of his full MLB seasons and there is some positive regression built into his 2026 projections. He may not be the 11th pitcher draft in 2026 drafts, but he probably shouldn’t fall much further than the top 20 to 25 or so either. If you want to draft Cease in 2026, you’ll have to grab him inside the first 100 picks.

    Robert Suarez was the 13th closer drafted, on average, in 2025 and ended the year as the 5th most valuable reliever, after saving 40 games, the second most in the league. He had the best walk and home run rates of his career, while getting his strikeout rate all the up to just under 10 per nine innings pitched, producing his best big league season just in time to opt out of his contract and enter free agency at the ripe old age of 34. The relief market is particularly strong this off-season, but Suarez has been one of the best closers in baseball over the past two seasons, so he should find a new closer’s role to assume somewhere. The Padres traded for Mason Miller at the trade deadline and he was absolutely electric over the final two months, striking out nearly two batters per inning (45 strikeouts over 23.1 innings), walking 10 batters and allowing just one home run and two runs in a Padres uniform. He only registered two saves, but also had 10 holds, but should have the inside track to the closer’s role for the Padres…so long as they don’t convert him back to a starter (there’s been rumors). If he does indeed get the closer’s role, he will again be one of the top five or so best closer in the game. If he is converted into a starter? Who knows, but just look at Michael King to get an idea of what the Padres have done in the RP-to-SP field. Adrian Morejon built off of a pretty good 2024 season and turned in an elite 2025, earning 13 wins, 20 holds and three saves, with 70 strikeouts, a 2.08 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP over 73.2 innings. He was the 7th most valuable reliever and generated the tied for third most WAR among relievers as the most reliable left-handed reliever in the Padres bullpen and a weapon that could be used in any situation. We cannot expect Morejon to win 13 games again in 2026 (more than six wins would be shocking), but he has established himself as one of the best arms for the Padres and will be a top option in holds leagues (though he could potentially earn the closer’s role if Miller is converted to a starter and the Padres have an open competition) in 2026. Who would he compete with to become the Padres closer if Miller is converted? Jeremiah Estrada, that’s who. He led the team in holds and appearances, had the second highest strikeout rate out of all relievers (behind Miller) and had the third lowest walk rate in the bullpen. There were rumors that Suarez was going to be traded prior to the 2025 season and expectations were that Estrada would be given the opportunity to close, but obviously that did not come to fruition, so if Miller is converted into a starter (as rumored), then Estrada would likely get first crack at the role for 2026. Whoever ends up closing games for the Padres – be it Miller, Morejon, Estrada or even Jason Adam (one of the best middle relievers in baseball over the past four years; has 60 holds the last two seasons, a 2.69 ERA for his career – even lower the last four seasons, with 295 strikeouts over 256.2 innings), they will be one of the best most valuable closers in fantasy baseball.

    Prospects

    After trading away Leo De Vries in the Mason Miller trade (and trading Robby Snelling for Tanner Scott in 2024), the Padres are left with just one top 100 prospect talent in their minor league ranks: Ethan Salas. He absolutely ripped Low-A ball in 2023, but has struggled at every stop since. The good news is, he has been much, much younger than the league average player at each stop, getting in 512 plate appearances at High-A before turning 19. He only played in 10 Double-A games this past season before suffering a stress reaction in his lower back, resulting in him missing the rest of the minor league season. He won’t turn 20 until next June and will be nearly three full years young than the average Double-A player when he puts his San Antonio Missions jersey back on for the 2026 season. He is already an elite defender behind the plate, but there are questions surrounding his ability to tap into his plus-power and whether his hit tool will ever be more than average.

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    November 10, 2025, 5:21 am