What was expected?

Coming into the 2024 season, expectations were high for a Mariners team that just missed out on the playoffs in 2023. I say missed out to be kind, since they absolutely choked away their spot by losing six of their final ten games of 2023, allowing both the Rangers and Astros to slip into the playoffs instead. In order to fix some of their offensive woes, they signed Mitch Garver away from the Rangers, brought back a familiar face in Mitch Haniger and signed switch-hitting infielder Jorge Polanco. The hope being that adding these names to the familiar faces of Julio Rodriguez, Cal Raleigh, J.P. Crawford and Ty France would result in a stronger offensive unit that would not fade at the end of the season. Of course, the rotation was expected to be one of the best in the league again, led by Luis Castillo, Logan Gilbert and George Kirby, with (hopefully improved) sophomore seasons from Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo rounding out the rotation. They still had the dominant Andres Munoz to close out games and the dominant Matt Brash setting him up, giving them stability at the back of the bullpen. A playoff spot was not a guarantee going into the season, as they did have the past two World Series Champions in their divisions, but hopes were high in Seattle nonetheless.

How did it go?

Just like 2023 did: they missed the playoffs by only one game. Only this time, instead of finishing the season poorly and having teams leap over them into a playoff spot, they finished the year winning eight of their final ten games and still missing out on the playoffs. They fired their long time skipper, Scott Servais, on August 23rd, after nine years at the helm, and replaced him with former Mariners Catcher Dan Wilson. Their key free agent acquisitions from the off-season – Haniger, Polanco and Garver – missed copious amounts of time with injuries and, when healthy, combined to hit just 0.198. To offset some of those offensive woes, they traded for the speed-power combo outfielder Randy Arozarena, from the Tamp Bay Rays, and corner infielder Justin Turner, from the Toronto Blue Jays, both of whom performed better in Seattle than their previous homes, but not well enough to push the Mariners over the hump. It’s fair to wonder how a team with such a good rotation and one of the six or seven best offenses in the league, can continue to miss the playoffs year after year.

Fantasy Stud?

Unfortunately, for the Mariners and fantasy managers, the fantasy stud is not Julio Rodriguez again. Instead, that honor goes to the #1 starter in the rotation and the guy who finished the season as the fifth best starting pitcher in all the land, Logan Gilbert. He started thirty-three games and went 9-12, though his stats tell a much different story than his record. Gilbert led the Mariners in strikeouts (sixth most overall), and led all of the big leagues in WHIP (0.89) and innings pitched (208.2 innings). It was a career season for the 27 year-old, who, in his fourth season, posted career bests in innings, strikeouts, hits allowed (148), walk rate (4.6%), strikeout rate (27.4%) and ground ball rate (45.1%).

Gilbert is an absolute horse on the mound, throwing 185 innings or more the past three seasons and he is one of only six pitchers who threw 190 or more inning in both 2023 and 2024. His 2024 ERA may not have been “elite”, at just 3.23, but it was his third consecutive season with an ERA of 3.73 or higher, and it was supported by the ERA estimators, as his xFIP (3.11), FIP (3.27) and xERA (3.08) were are relatively in line with his actual ERA. His big fastball (96.6MPH, 88th percentile) was a big reason why his Statcast page is absolutely bathed in red lollipops, though he does get hit pretty hard, pretty often (average exit velocity 89.6 MPH, bottom 27%; hard hit rate 39.3%, bottom 44%). He offsets that by having one of the best walk rates in all of baseball, with his 4.6% in 2024 the fifth-best among starters.

He should be able to replicate his season again in 2025, where he should extend his run of lots of innings, not a lot of runs allowed, while limited base runners and putting the Mariners in a position to win more often than not. He will not provide the same value as he did in 2024 (he was drafted, on average, around pick 70, but finished the year inside the top 25), but will probably still provide one of the best returns for where he will be drafted (early 2025 drafts have shown him getting drafted around pick 29 as of today).

Fantasy Dud?

Julio Rodriguez is the most obvious candidate and who we are going to talk about. He was drafted, on average, third overall, but finished the year ranked fifty-fifth, which was better than where, say, Ronald Acuna finished, but at least Acuna had an injury to excuse himself. Rodriguez played in 143 games and set career worsts in nearly every single statistical category. Even with how poor the year was, he did still have his third straight season of 20 or more home runs and 20 or more stolen bases, and he hit 0.273 or higher for the third straight season, but his walk rate, on-base percentage and OPS all dropped for the second consecutive season.

What originally seemed like a “slow start”, turned into an absolutely dreadful first half, including Rodriguez hitting the proverbial bottom of the hole, when he hit 0.206 in the month of June. He finished the first three months of the season with only 37 runs, seven home runs, 29 RBI, 17 stolen bases and a 0.247 batting average, with just a 0.624 OPS and an 86 wRC+. His second half was literally night-and-day better, with incredibly hot months of July and September wrapped around a poor August. From July 1st through the end of the season, Rodriguez had 39 runs, 13 home runs, 39 RBI, seven stolen bases and a 0.312 batting average, with an 0.892 OPS and a 158 wRC+.

He’s too talented and too young to fall too far in drafts for 2025, but it is safe to assume he will probably not be a top five pick, but he will still probably have an average-draft position near the end of the first round (in early drafts, his ADP is 13).

Fantasy Surprise?

Though the Mariners probably had two positive fantasy surprise players for 2024, we are going to talk about the most impactful of the two: Bryce Miller. He was the fourth Mariners starter drafted, on average, ending up on fantasy teams somewhere in the 175th to 200s pick range, but ended the year as the second-best arm in the rotation and the eighth best fantasy starter, period. Miller started 31 games in his sophomore season, throwing 180.1 innings, striking out 171 and walking just 45 batters, with a 2.94 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP (huge improvements on his rookie season, which were 4.32 and 1.14, respectively). His ERA was eighth best in the league and his WHIP was fourth best, not that far off from league leader and teammate Gilbert.

Miller’s season started hot, with a dominant March/April (2.04 ERA, 39K in 35.1 innings, with just 12 walks, five home runs and eight earned runs), then dropped somewhat off a cliff (May and June a combined 62 innings, with just 52 strikeouts, sixteen walks, nine home runs and thirty-four earned runs, for a 4.94 ERA and 1.15 WHIP), before bouncing back and crushing it from July 1st through the end of the season (83 innings, 80 strikeouts, 17 walks, seven home runs, 17 earned runs, with a 1.84 ERA and a 0.89 WHIP).

The season should be taken with a few grains of salt, when considering where to value him for 2025, because he was hit very hard (90.3 MPH avgEV, bottom 15%; 9.7% barrel rate and 41.2% hard hit rate, both in the bottom 33%). He offsets the hard hits the same way Gilbert does, limiting baserunners (6.4% BB% and only 131 hits in 180.1 innings). With pretty average velocity and some less flattering numbers under the hood, it’s a mistake to expect Miller to repeat his Top 30 season again in 2025. He deserves to be selected earlier than this year (175-200 range) but should be considered in the Top 100 range rather than Top 30.

Player Breakdowns:

Hitters

Cal Raleigh – C

Raleigh had a career year in 2024, sitting new career highs in games played (153; third highest among all catcher), home runs (34, highest among catchers), RBI (100, second most among catchers), walk rate (11.1%; he has raised it every year of his big league career), on-base percentage (0.312; only the second season it has been over 0.300) and hard-hit rate (48.1%; a 7.4% raise from 2023).

Though he hit just 0.220 with a 0.436 slugging percentage, both numbers were under what was expected (0.235 and 0.486, respectively) and his 0.235 greatly limited his batting average upside, as well. He’s raised his contact rate each year he has been in the league, making more contact year-by-year in the zone, but his out-of-zone contact rate has dropped each year. He did post a career high chase rate in 2024, even though it had dropped the two previous seasons.

He was the sixth catcher off the board, on average, in 2024, drafted around pick 140, yet returned top 75 value on the season. Though his batting average will never be anything to brag about, Raleigh’s immense power and great statcast numbers translate into position leading home run numbers and the Mariners offense is good enough that he will be among the top two or three catchers in runs and RBI more often than not. He should be treated as one of the three or four best fantasy catchers, but his batting average will deter more risk averse managers, which will allow the savvy fantasy manager the opportunity to again draft him later than he should go.

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Victor Robles – OF

Robles was the other Mariners player I considered for the fantasy breakout, but since he did it for a shorter time AND we are not sure if he can replicate it, we will just talk about him here.

He started off the season extremely poorly, with a 0.176 batting average, 27.3% strikeout rate and 0.401 OPS before the Washington Nationals released him in May. The Mariners picked him up shortly after his release, needing OF help and bench depth, and the rest is fantasy history.

From June 5th, the day he debuted in a game as a Mariner, until the end of the season, Robles was the tenth most productive outfielder in the entire league. He hit 0.328, the second highest batting average among OF over that time, behind only Aaron Judge; he stole 30 bases, the most among OF; he scored 41 runs, which was tied for 48th most among OF, but he was one of only five OF with less than 300 plate appearances that scored 40 or more; and he had a 0.393 OBP, which was fourth among OF, behind only Judge, Juan Soto and Yordan Alvarez. He hit only four home runs, which was never his strong suit anyways (except for a very weird 2019 season when he hit half of his career total), so count them as a bonus.

Now, he should not be treated as a top 10 fantasy outfielder for 2024, but he should be taken seriously. The Mariners lineup should once again produce some solid offensive numbers, especially with full seasons out of Robles and Arozarena and whoever they pencil in for the departed Justin Turner and Jorge Polanco and early indicators are looking like Robles could have a role leading off like he did the final two-plus months of 2024. He may not hit 0.328 and have a 0.393 OBP for 2025, but a 0.285 batting average with a 0.345 OBP with 40 or more steals and 90 runs is still a very valuable player to have. He will be worthwhile risk as your OF3 (or 4 or 5 in deeper leagues).

The best of the rest

Luke Raley was acquired in a trade with Tampa in January, hit .243/.320/.463 in 137 games with 22 HRs and 11 SB. Slightly overperformed his xBA (.226) and xSLG (.432). His K% of 29.7% is bad but was the best of his career and has been getting better (less poor?) each year…Randy Arozarena came over from Tampa Bay as a trade deadline acquisition in July. First half performance with Tampa Bay was some of the worst of his career by hitting just .211/.318/.394. Batting average improved slightly with Mariners (.231) in 54 games but hit just 5 HRs with lowest ISO of his career. Also, he stole only 4 bases in 54 games with his new team. His overall xBA, xSLG and K% were all well below average. One redeeming value was his high BB% of 11.3% (88th percentile)…Dylan Moore had a very, well, Dylan Moore kind of year (all speed, no hit) but took it to a new level by swiping a career-high 32 bases. Of course, those SBs were costly to fantasy managers as they came with a weak .201/.320/.367 slash line (xBA of .206). With a career batting average of .206 and strikeout rate of 30% (“just” 28% in 2024), no one should expect anything from Moore in 2025 other than another speedy weak hitting season.

Pitchers

George Kirby – SP

Kirby was the second Seattle starter drafted, with an ADP around 40, but he finished as the third most valuable starter in the rotation. So though he didn’t necessarily live up to his draft spot, he still finished as one of the top 19 or 20 starters and provided top 60 value on the season.

Kirby has established himself as a decent strikeout pitcher with elite command, with the best walk rate in baseball the past two seasons (0.90 BB/9 in 2023, 1.08 in 2024 – 0.23 better than the next best pitchers). Remember how we said earlier that Gilbert was one of six pitchers to throw 185 or more innings in both 2023 and 2024? Well Kirby was also one of those six pitchers, throwing 190.2 and 191 innings, respectively, over these two years. He had the best K:BB in baseball, 7.8, and it wasn’t really close (Tarik Skubal had the second highest and it was 6.5).

Kirby is essentially at his peak, with the only way to really impact his value by a) raising his strikeout rate, which could negatively affect his walk rate, b) lowering his ERA, which is both in and out of his hands or c) raise his win total, which is moreso in the hands of his team than himself. That’s not to say that his peak isn’t bad, it’s just to say that any improvements to walk rate, hit suppression or WHIP won’t really move the needle, which means he should probably be treated as an SP in the 12-15 range, instead of a top 10 guy, like he was in 2024 drafts.

Luis Castillo – SP

In his second season in Seattle, Castillo took a few steps back in production, with higher ERA and WHIP numbers, regressing strikeout numbers and a fastball losing it’s velocity. He started 30 games, went 11-12, threw 175.1 innings, striking out 175 while walking just 47. His fastball velocity has dropped every season since 2020, when it peaked at 97.6 MPH, to the 95.7 MPH it averaged this past season.

It’s not all doom and gloom with Castillo though. He averaged the second most innings per start of his career (5.84 IP/G; he average 5.94 in 2019), posted a career low walk rate (6.5%; it has dropped for three straight seasons) and righted the ship on his slider, whose effectiveness fell off a cliff in 2023, but roared back in 2024, becoming his second best pitch again, after his fastball.

He was drafted, on average, around pick 70 in 2024 but finished the season outside the top 130 players. Early drafters are treating the 2024 season like a blip on the radar instead of some fall off, as his current ADP in early drafting leagues is 73, but that feels like it is too early. I would still treat him as a top 100, since he has the track record, but would prefer to grab him in the mid-to-late 90’s, not the early 70’s.

Bryan Woo – SP

Woo makes five Seattle starters inside the top 40 starters overall, though he finished higher than even Castillo in 2024 even though he pitched much fewer innings.

He tossed only 121.1 innings, over 22 starts, finishing the season with a 9-3 record, a 2.89 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 101 strikeouts and just 13 walks. Those walks led to a 0.96 BB/9, lower even than his league leading teammate, Kirby, though he didn’t qualify for the leaderboards because he didn’t pitch enough innings (162 innings is needed to qualify for the leaderboard; one per game scheduled). His strikeout rate was the lowest of his pro career (he had a 9.55 K/9 in 2023 in the majors, but his strikeout rate in the minor leagues was never lower than 12 K/9, so there should be room to grow in this area without negatively affecting his walk rate too much.

He missed all of April and part of May, June and July, which makes it hard to truly assess his season, even if when he was healthy he was pretty dang dominant. He did finish the year poorly, with a 4.94 ERA in September, though he did have his best strikeout rate of the year then (9.88 K/9), he also had his second worst walk rate (1.32 BB/9) and his worst home run rate (1.65 HR/9).

He was drafted outside the top 175 picks in 2024 and ended the year just inside the top 75 players and early drafters are grabbing him around pick 132 right now, but I expect that to slowly move up and by February/March I expect him to be drafted inside the top 120 picks, if not higher.

The best of the rest

For Andrés Muñoz, many hoped he would be the exclusive closer for Seattle but he was occasionally used as a high-leverage reliever. Regardless of his exact role, he had an excellent season by appearing in 60 games with 22 saves and three wins (though he did blow five saves and lost seven games). He had tremendous ratios (2.12 ERA and 0.96 WHIP), both of which were better than last year and his career averages. ERA was much better than his xERA (2.92), FIP (3.35) and xFIP (2.98). Struck out 77 batters in 59.1 innings. He had an excellent 11.7 K/9 but that number is down from 2023’s 12.3 and 2022’s 13.3 rates and Was in the top 10% for xERA, xBA, fastball velocity (98.1 mph), K%, hard-hit% and groundball%. He was often drafted Top 100-125 and was a value because he ended around Top 80. Munoz will be a free agent after next season so could be a mid-season trade candidate though that seems unlikely since the Mariners should again be in contention for a playoff spot…Yimi García was a trade deadline acquisition from Blue Jays but was injured too often to help the squad. He is a free agent and may not return to Seattle in 2025 (could be a key setup guy if he does return).

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