What was expected?

The expectations for 2024 were sky high. After finishing fourth in the American League East with an 82-80 record, their worst record in 29 years, and missing the playoffs, they were very active in the offseason. They signed Marcus Stroman, to deepen the rotation, traded for Juan Soto & Trent Grisham (they gave up Michael King, Drew Thorpe, Randy Vazquez, Kyle Higashioka and Jhony Brito) and Alex Verdugo (sent away Richard Fitts, Greg Weissert and Nicolas Judice). They expected bounce back seasons from DJ LeMahieu, Anthony Rizzo and Giancarlo Stanton, Anthony Volpe’s follow up to his great rookie season and the eventual call up of stud minor league OF Jasson Dominguez. Though they would be without Gerrit Cole for the first eight or nine weeks of the season, they believe that Carlos Rodon, Marcus Stroman, Nestor Cortes, Clarke Schmidt and rookie Luis Gil will be a strong enough rotation to compete most nights. They should have a great bullpen, with Clay Holmes resuming closing duties and a solid group of middle relievers.

How did it go?

The season went amazing…until the World Series. Which they lost. To the Dodgers. They had an amazing season. They won 94 games, scored the most runs in the American League (815), Aaron Judge had quite possibly the greatest season by a right handed hitter in the history of baseball and unanimously won the AL MVP award, Luis Gil won the AL Rookie of the Year and became the 10th Yankee to do so and Giancarlo Stanton hit seven home runs in the postseason, a Yankees record. Luke Weaver replaced the ineffective Clay Holmes in the closer’s role in September and was lights out, saving his best performances for September and October (1.76 ERA, 9.39 K/9, 2BB, 2HR and 3ER in 15.1 playoff innings).

But, also, Alex Verdugo was not great, Yankees first basemen were some of the worst offensive producers in baseball and Austin Wells hit 0.111 in September and had only six hits in the postseason. Jasson Dominguez struggled in September, hitting poorly (0.179 batting average) and, more importantly, making miscues in the outfield, which lead to the Yankees replacing him with Verdugo, more concerned with solid defense over the offensive upside.

Fantasy Stud?

I mean, could we have chosen anyone other than the real life American League MVP, Aaron Judge? Especially after the season he had?

Let’s just take a look at where some of his stats ranked in the American league:

– Home Runs – 58 – 1st

– Run – 122 – 2nd (Juan Soto was first, 128)

– RBI – 144 – 1st

– Batting Average – 0.322 – 2nd (Bobby Witt was first, 0.332)

– Walk rate – 18.9% – 1st (Soto was in 2nd, 18.1%; they were the only two higher than 12.6%)

– OBP – 0.458 – 1st (Soto, 0.419, 2nd)

– SLG – 0.701 (Witt, 0.588, 2nd)

– wRC+ – 218 – 1st (Soto, 180, 2nd)

– WAR – 11.2 (Witt, 10.4, 2nd)

Just, holy cow. If it wasn’t for the toe injury last year, he’d have three consecutive seasons of 50 or more home runs. Instead, he just has three total season with 52 or more home runs, three season with 114 to 144 RBI and three seasons with 122 to 133 runs. Judge is at 315 home runs and 33 in April. I think it is safe to say he will reach 500 home runs in roughly five-ish years (I don’t want to predict he hits 50 or more home runs every year, so I’ll be conservative with 40+ every season) and will be a no-doubt, lock it in Hall of Famer. He has had three of the best offensive season of the last 10 years and one of the best rookie seasons of all time and does not seem to be slowing down as he gets older.

Fantasy Dud?

It was kind of tough to determine the fantasy dud, because some of the poor performing Yankees players weren’t drafted particularly high nor did they have much of an expectation coming into the season, so we kind of just settled on Gleyber Torres, mainly because he was drafted as a top eight second baseman and ended the season as the 14th “best” second baseman. He was so bad, the Yankees didn’t even re-sign him and they could use the help for 2025.

He finished the 2024 season with an 80-15-63-4-0.257 stat line, with a 0.708 OPS and a 107 wRC+. He finished with less than 20 home runs in a season for only the second full season of his career and less than 10 steals for the first time since the 2020 COVID shortened season. His strikeout rate jumped from a career low 14.6% to 20.5% which, is essentially what his career rate is and the 14.6% rate from 2023 stands out starkly over his seven season career. More damning is that his statcast numbers dropped to a career worst-tying 88.6 MPH average exit velocity, career worst 35.4% hard-hit rate and a second lowest of his career 6.3% barrel rate. His swing decisions look like they belong to a more successful hitter, with just a 22.4% chase rate, 79.5% contact rate (84.4% in-zone contact rate) and just a 9.4% swinging strike rate.

He has yet to sign with a team this off-season, but will probably be looking at signing just a one year prove it deal, hoping to bounce back with a new team and earn a mutli-year, high salaried contract after the 2025 season.

Fantasy Surprise?

This could have gone one of two ways, either AL Rookie of the Year Luis Gil or Luke Weaver and I decided to go with the veteran starter who became an elite reliever, so Weaver.

Coming into the season, Weaver had been primarily a starter over his nine year career, with his best seasons coming from 2017 to 2019. He has battled injury problems and ineffectiveness since then, but then the Yankees decided to make him a reliever full time. He had less than 60 reliever innings of experience over his previous eight seasons, so this would be a big change for Weaver.

Needless to say, but Weaver embraced the role and was pretty damn dominant. He had a strike out rate of 11.04 K/9, a walk rate of 2.79 BB/9 and a home run rate of 1.07 HR/9, with a 2.89 ERA (3.32 xERA, 3.33 FIP, 3.42 xFIP), limited batters to an 8.6% barrel rate and 38.4% hard-hit rate, with a 31.3% chase rate, 68.6% contact rate and an elite 15.4% swinging strike rate. He basically turned into a three pitch pitcher – four-seam fastball, cutter, change up, with the occasional knuckle curve mixed in, with all four pitchers performing better than they had in years (if ever).

He will be an elite reliever in holds leagues and one of the best closer handcuffs in the league, since the Yankees went out and traded for Devin Williams. If he were to miss time for any reason, Weaver would easily transition to the closer’s role and instantly become one of the best in the league.

Player Breakdowns:

Hitters

Juan Soto – OF

Much like we did with Aaron Judge’s season, let’s break down Soto’s with how well he fared among fellow America League hitters:

– Home Runs – 41 – 2nd (Judge, 58, 1st)

– Runs – 128 – 1st

– RBI – 109 – Tied-4th (with Bobby Witt; Judge, 144, 1st)

– Walk Rate – 18.1% – 2nd (Judge, 18.9%, 1st)

– Strikeout Rate – 16.7% – Tied-15th (with Carlos Santana)

– Batting Average – 0.288 – 9th

– OBP – 0.419 – 2nd (Judge, 0.458, 1st)

– SLG – 0.569 – 3rd (Witt, 0.588, 2nd)

– wRC+ – 168 – Tied-3rd (Yordan Alvarez)

– WAR – 8.1 – 3rd (10.4,Witt)

An MVP season in almost any other season of recent memory. Without Judge’s elite season, he probably still would have lost the MVP to Witt, but the race would have been a lot closer.

He will try to replicate his monster season for the Mets, after signing for 15 years and $765 million.

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Jazz Chisholm, Jr. – 3B/OF

Chisholm started the season in Miami, but was traded right around the trade deadline to the Yankees. The Yankees sent prospect C Agustin Ramirez, prospect 2B Jared Serna and prospect INF Abrahan Ramirez for Chisholm alone. And, based off of the initial performance and results, it’s already a resounding success.

Chisholm ended the season with a 74-24-73-40-0.256 stat line, with a 0.760 OPS and a 110 wRC+, but his numbers in pinstripes were much better than his numbers in Miami.

What’s that table tell us? Yes, he performed better in pinstripes, hitting for more power, stealing bases at higher rate and getting on-base more often than when he was in Miami, but he was also still hitting far too many ground balls, he wasn’t making as much contact and he was making quality contact less (even if it was harder and louder contact). Some folks are going to look at what he did in less than 200 plate appearances for the Yankees, extrapolate that to 600 plate appearances and expect him to put up a 90-35-80-60-0.265 line and reach early to grab him. I’d say let’s pump the brakes a bit, see if he can lift the ball more, getting to more line drives and fly-balls, hit 30 home runs, maybe steal 40 bases in pinstripes (how willing is Aaron Boone going to be in letting Jazz get up to the same base running antics he did after the trade last year?) and where he ends up in the lineup (rumors last year were that he was brought in to bat lead-off or second, but he hit fifth, sixth or seventh more often than not).

Anthony Volpe – SS

That was not the follow up to a breakout rookie season that Yankees fans would have liked. Sure, the defense was wonderful and better than it was when he was a rookie, but the hitting was just as bad.

He struck out less, which is great, but he also walked less, hit for less power and half of all balls he made contact with were hit into the dirt. His barrel rate collapsed, from 9% to 3.9%, his hard-hit rate dropped nearly 8%, from 42.7% to 34.9% and his fly ball rate dropped nearly 9%, from 37.1% to 28.7% (coincidentally, his ground ball rate jumped from 41.1% to 50.2%).

It’s not all doom and gloom though. He made far better swing decisions, making better contact, both in (85.9%) and out (61.8%) of zone, resulting in a contact rate 5.8% higher than his rookie season (79.2%). Though he chased a few more pitches, he swung and missed only 9.9% of the time, a 2.6% drop. He had the sixth best fielding run value at SS (10) a year after having the 14th (1) and tied for the 12th most base running runs (5) a year after he was tied for 32nd (3).

The Yankees will be hoping to see him improve his power hitting this year and lift the ball more, since he never had a season in the minor leagues where he had more ground balls than fly balls and might let him loose a little more on the base paths, since he also demonstrated that he is a positive asset and one of the best at creating runs when running the bases. Volpe has top 5 SS upside but top 15 SS production. Hopefully those lines start to cross soon.

The best of the rest

Giancarlo Stanton continued his “let me get at least 300 plate appearances and I’ll hit 22 or more home runs in a season streak” in 2024, hitting 27 home runs over 459 plate appearances, his most since 2021. He is a full-time DH that is essentially a three-true outcomes hitter, though the walk outcome has been happening less and less. He’s worth a grab in deep leagues, but I’d avoid in most cases…Austin Wells rookie season was such a success that the Yankees traded away his predecessor, Jose Trevino, after the season ended, signalling that the backstop job was his for the foreseeable future. He doesn’t have a great hit tool, but brings some power and a solid eye to the plate, with an 11% or higher walk rate at every professional stop except for his 75 plate appearances stop in the majors in 2023. He is one of the best defensive catchers in the league and should find himself in the Gold Glove mix as soon as 2025. He is a standard league startable catcher and has the upside to be a top 10 fantasy catcher…Jasson Dominguez, “The Martian”, enters the 2025 season with a lot of Yankees fans hopes and dreams on his shoulders, as one of the most talented and most hyped Yankees prospects in some time. After he missed the first few months of the 2024 season recovering from Tommy John surgery and then missed extended time with an oblique injury, Dominguez enters the 2025 season healthy and with an almost guaranteed starting spot in the outfield, besides Aaron Judge and Cody Bellinger. He has the power and speed upside to hit 30 or more home runs and steal 30 or more bases, but he needs to focus on elevating the ball more and striking out less, at the big league level. He will be just 22 years old when the season starts, so he has plenty of time to develop into the player the Yankees faithful hope he can be, but the pressure will be on for him to be that player this year.

Pitchers

Gerrit Cole – SP

For the first time in Gerrit Cole’s career, he failed to reach 100 innings in a season (not counting COVID shortened seasons). He had thrown at least 116 innings or more in his previous ten full seasons, throwing 181.1 innings or more every full season since 2017, until last year.

Cole didn’t make his 2024 debut until June 19th, nearly three months after the season started, as he suffered and recovered from nerve inflammation and edema in his right elbow.

Though he looked like the same Cole when he returned, attack hitters with first-pitch strikes, pounding the zone and striking out more than a batter an inning, there were cracks. He posted his lowest K/9 since 2017 (9.38), a disturbing three year trend that has seen his K/9 drop nearly three full strikeouts per nine-innings. He posted the third worst BB/9 of his career (2.75), nearly all of his pitches were down a full mile-per-hour, he had the worst K/BB of his career (3.41), allowed more fly balls than ever before (44.1%) and had his lowest chase rate (28.9%), swinging strike rate (10.7%) and worst contact rate (77.2%) since 2017, his final season in Pittsburgh.

His stat cast numbers were virtually the same to 2023, but that just means they were below average again, with his hard-hit rate (42%) and average exit velocity (25%) both below average, while his barrel rate (56%) was just above average. He still has very solid strikeout numbers and one of the fastest fastballs, but he is running into less swing and miss, less hitters are chasing pitches out of the zone and he is running into more contact. I’m not saying the floor is about to fall out on Cole, but the ceiling is no longer as high as it once was and I am not sure if I would still consider him an SP1 or not. His days as an elite, one of the first SP off the board, fantasy ace are slowly slipping behind him. And it probably won’t hurt to be out a year too early instead of year too late.

Carlos Rodon – SP

Rodon’s second season in the Bronx was much more successful than his first, when he suffered from a back injury and a forearm injury and ended up pitching just 64.1 innings.

He looked nearly as good in 2024 as he had in 2022, his lone season in San Francisco. He had a 10.03 K/9, a 2.93 BB/9 and a 1.59 HR/9, all three an improvement on 2023. He had a 3.96 ERA (4.14 xERA, 4.39 FIP, 4.09 xFIP) and a 1.22 WHIP, winning a career high sixteen games and throwing 175 innings, the second highest total of his career.

He allowed the second highest fly-ball rate of his career (49.4%) and less than desirable statcast numbers (90.4 MPH average exit velocity, 11% barrel rate and 40.7% hard-hit rate, none of which is great). He did, however, have a solid chase rate (31.5%) and swinging strike rate (14%), which supports his high strikeout rate, plus just a 71.5% contact rate, while having the best Stuff+ (122) of his career.

I think 2025 is going to bring another solid season from Rodon, so long as he stays healthy. Double-digits wins, striking out 10 or more per nine innings, walking nearly three while allowing more than a home run per nine innings with a high, but manageable, fly-ball rate should result in a top 50 SP season. He is being drafted around pick 129, the 52nd SP off the board, so there is a slight discount for his 2024 performance as we speak.

Luis Gil – SP

Gil won the 2024 American League Rookie of the Year award, even though he had spent some time in the major leagues in both the 2021 and 2022 seasons. He missed most of the 2022 and 2023 seasons recovering from Tommy John surgery, so it was a surprise he pitched a full time starters load in 2024.

But a very strong spring and the injury to Gerrit Cole’s elbow led to Gil receiving the opportunity to start from Day 1 of the 2024 season and he never looked back.

He struck 171 batters over 151.2 innings (10.15 K/9), walking 77 (4.57 BB/9), allowing 18 home runs (1.07 HR/9), a 3.50 ERA (3.83 xERA, 4.14 FIP, 4.36 xFIP) and a 1.19 WHIP.

Gil has always had control issues and high walk problems, so if Cole had not needed to be replaced for so long, he may have been a reliever as soon as last year. Instead, Gil was able to overcome his control issues en route to a solid season and win the Rookie of the Year.

A starter with such a high walk rate is tough to trust to continue to be successful, so Gil is expected to take a step back, with his ERA and WHIP both rising, his strikeouts per nine innings dropping and his overall performance slipping. He has been drafted around pick 186, as the 77th pitcher off the board, on average, but there are a few pitchers being drafted after him that I would rather take a shot on than Gil. If you can grab him closer to his max pick (220) than his current overall, I would feel more comfortable drafting him

Clay Holmes – RP

Holmes started the 2024 season as the Yankees incumbent closer, saving a total of 30 games, with a 9.71 K/9, 3.14 BB/9, 0.57 HR/9, a 3.14 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP.

He ended the year as a regular middle reliever, after blowing THIRTEEN saves, taking five losses in the process. It was more blown saves than he had in his previous five full seasons of relief experience combined.

The Yankees chose not to re-sign him this off-season, as he opted instead to sign with the New York Mets, who have announced that they are going to give him the opportunity to begin the year in the starting rotation.

I have no clue what to expect out of Holmes for the upcoming season. Can he pitch 150 or more innings and start 28 or more games? Will he performs so poorly as a starter the Mets have to relegate him to the bullpen?

Who knows. But drafters in high-stakes leagues are not showing him much respect, since he has been drafted around pick 414 in high-stakes leagues in December, coming off the board as the 128 pitcher drafted. That’s probably both too early and too late to be drafting Holmes, so unless you are interested in taking the risk on him, I would avoid him in 2024 drafts for now.

The best of the rest

Marcus Stroman had the worst season of his career since 2018. He posted a career low strikeout rate (6.58 K/9), career high walk rate (3.49 BB/9), career high home run rate (1.11 HR/9) and lowest total WAR (1.0) of any season where he has pitched at least 130 innings (so every season but one in his career). Projections are not kind, either, as they expect him to still have a low strikeout rate, undesirable walk rate and struggle to keep runners off base. He is being drafted so late in drafts he is virtually free and should be treated more as a streaming starter than a rosterable asset…Clarke Schmidt burst out of the gates to begin the 2024 season, throwing 60.2 innings through May, with a 2.52 ERA, with a 9.94 K/0, 2.97 BB/9 and a 0.89 HR/9, solidifying his spot in the rotation and establishing himself as one of the best starters in the American League. Unfortunately, due to a lat strain, he would miss around 14 weeks of the regular season, but when he returned in September he was slightly less effective, but still pitched very well (3.65 ERA, 9.49 K/9, 3.65 BB/9, 0.73 HR/99, 3.69 FIP, 4.36 xFIP), before struggling in the playoffs (12 IP, 9K, 7BB, 2HR, 7ER). He is the sixth Yankees pitcher drafted, on average (pick 233, pitcher 92), but I think he will return more value than two of his fellow rotation mates being drafted ahead of him.

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