What was expected?

Though they finished the 2023 season in third place in the American League Central Division, the Twins entered the 2024 season with big expectations. With a dominant start rotation, deep bullpen and explosive power in the lineup, the Twins expected to compete not just for a playoff spot, but the divisional title. Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa and Royce Lewis were all expected to enter the season fit and healthy, prepped to carry a dynamic offense with power throughout every spot. Though they lost Sonny Gray in free agency, Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober all have the type of stuff to lead a rotation, with young (Louie Varland) and old (Chris Paddack) arms to fill out rotational depth. After the starters go their five or six innings, they will be handing the ball off to one of the most deep and talented bullpens in the majors, headlined by closer Jhoan Duran, setup man Griffin Jax and middle reliever Cole Sands.

How did it go?

Somehow, the 2024 season was worse than the 2023 season, with the Twins finishing lower in the standings (fourth) and missing the playoffs again. Injuries were a major culprit, again, as Correa, Lewis and Buxton all missed time, with none of the three “stars” of the lineup even reaching 400 plate appearances. Lopez and Ober had 32 and 31 starts, respectively, but Ryan only started 23 games, missed nearly all of the last two months and ended the season on the injured list. Duran opened the year on the injured list and didn’t make his season debut until April 30th, but Jax filled in as closer while he was injured. The rotational depth struggled, as Paddack, David Festa, Simeon Woods-Richardson, Zebby Matthews and Varland struggled to hold down the fourth and fifth pitching spots and cover for Ryan while he was out. The 2025 off-season will find the team at a sort of crossroads – when full healthy, the rotation is one of the five best in baseball, with a 1-3 that rivals all but the best teams (Seattle, Atlanta, Los Angeles), with some promising youngsters that could fill-in the back of the rotation (Matthews, Festa, Varland), but has a group of uber-talented hitters that struggle to stay healthy. They will once again build their lineup around the triumvirate of Correa, Lewis and Buxton, with Matt Wallner, Max Kepler, Trevor Larnach, Willi Castro and Ryan Jeffers filling in the spots around them. Expectations will be high again in 2025, though the ascension of he Tigers and the Royals with the continued dominance of the Guardians means it will be a steep mountain to climb.

Fantasy Stud?

It was tough to choose between Ober (career high in innings pitched) and Ryan (shorter season, but more dominant over the same time frame), but I ultimately decided that Ryan was the stud.

I know he started eight less games and had 43 less innings pitched, but it was a better season (he beat out Ober in fWAR 3.1 to 2.9, so…). Ryan lowered his walk rate for a second consecutive year, down to 1.53 BB/9, which was the fourth best among starters with at least 110 innings pitched at the time of his injury. His 9.80 K/9, which was down from 2023, was still extremely good, as he ranked 18th at the time of his injury. He had pretty good statcast data, with an 8.5% barrel rate, a 36.4% hard-hit rate and just an 88.3MPH average exit velocity. He is and has always been a fly ball hitter, with a career 50.1% fly ball rate (45.4% in 2024), but does well to limit home runs, aided by that low barrel rate. He had a 12.6% swinging strike rate and a 28.9% chase rate, both of which support his K/9.

He ended the season on the injured list due to a Grade 2 teres major strain behind his right should, but should be fully healthy for spring training and the 2025 season.

Fantasy Dud?

Over three seasons, Royce Lewis has hit a combined 33 home runs, with 81 runs, 104 RBI and a 0.268 batting average and 128 wRC+, over 605 plate appearances. So, given a complete season, Lewis would probably be one of the two or three best at his position…but he cannot stay healthy. In 2022 he had knee problems. In 2023 he had knee, oblique and hamstring problems. 2024? Quad and abductor injuries. What’s it going to be in 2025, shoulder and toe? Hip pointer and elbow? The disappointing part and what makes him a dud for 2024, is that he was drafted around pick 53, one of the first 35 bats off the board, and he only played in 82 games. It was obvious his injuries affected him, as well, since he posted the lowest exit velocity, max exit velocity and hard-hit rate of his short career so far, though everything else lined up with his previous “elite” production. We just need Lewis to stay healthy for a full season, so Twins fans and fantasy managers alike can be rewarded with what should be an elite statistical season. As for the 2025 season? So long as he is fully healthy and ready for the season, I am sure he will be treated as and drafted as one of the top fantasy third baseman, which means a generous amount of draft capital will have to be invested in Lewis if you really want him.

Fantasy Surprise?

It was tough to find a true fantasy surprise on this team, because most of the player performed up to or down to their expected standards, so let’s go with a pitcher who was a relatively unknown minor leaguer coming into the 2024 season, before flying through three different minor league levels and ending the year on the big league roster: Zebby Matthews.

He was an 8th round pick in the 2022 First Year Player Draft, a junior out of Western Carolina. He tossed three innings after signing, then tossed 105.1 innings in 2023, between low-A and high-A, where he showed off a solid strikeout rate and great control. In 2024 though, his control was off the charts, as he maintained a strikeout rate north of 10 K/9 while walking less than a batter per nine innings pitched. And he did this through high-A, double-A and triple-A, as he pitched 97 innings, struck out 114 batters and walked only 7, allowing only 7 home runs as well. He was promoted to the majors in August and, over nine starts and 37.2 innings, continued to strike out a ton of batters, striking out 43. But, his walk rate took a jump, up to 2.63 per nine innings pitched (11 over the 37.2 innings) and he struggled to keep the ball in the park, allowing 11 home runs over the same amount of innings.

Going into 2025, Matthews should have an inside shot at grabbing the fifth spot in the rotation, so long as the Twins do not sign or trade for another starting pitcher.

Player Breakdowns:

Hitters

Carlos Santana – 1B

Santana turned 38 in April and had his best season since 2019, five teams and five years ago. He finished the season as the 23rd best first baseman, but was drafted outside of the top 400 picks, so only in the deepest of leagues. His overall stat line of 64-23-71-4-0.238 isn’t the prettiest, but he would have made a decent stand in for say Triston Casas, while he was out with an injury, or as a replacement for Spencer Torkelson while he, um, “figured” out his swing again, or whatever it was he had to do in the minor leagues. It was his ninth season with 20 or more home runs and his 13th straight season hitting 18 or more home runs (non-covid seasons). Though his walk rates have dropped from the mid-teens, he was still in the double figures, at 10.9%, and his strikeout rate was a very respectable 16.7%.

He is a free agent for the 2025 season and has stated he’d like to play for three or more seasons, if possible, and I believe you can do a lot worse at a corner infield spot or, in deeper leagues, first base, than a guy like Santana. In the right lineup and ballpark Santana can still make a fantasy impact. And he will probably be available extremely late, yet again, for drafts in 2025.

Carlos Correa – SS

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