What was expected?

The Guardians approached 2024 with many questions. They were disappointing in 2023 by going 76-86 and finishing 11 games out of first place. They scored the third-fewest runs in MLB that year so all hitters not named José Ramírez were a big question mark. Three starting pitchers made their MLB debuts in 2023 and went on to play key roles. How would they fare in their sophomore seasons? Finally, who would manage the team? Long time manager Terry Francona stepped away from his job just days after the 2023 season concluded. What would things be like without Francona for the first time in 12 years?

How did it go?

One question was answered pretty quickly. Little more than one month after losing Francona, the Guardians hired Stephen Vogt as their new manager in November 2023. His name should look familiar because he was a player as recently as 2022. That’s right – just one year after his playing career ended, Vogt was managing an MLB team! The Guardians interviewed other candidates with longer track records but felt the 39-year-old Vogt would mesh well with their young team.

Vogt, José Ramírez and closer-extraordinaire Emmanuel Clase led the team to a much better year in 2024. Although they did not bolster their offense with significant new hitters until acquiring Lane Thomas in July, the Guardians increased their scoring and finished near the league average rather than near the bottom as they did the previous year.

Their 2024 turnaround was impressive. The Guardians improved their win total by 16 games. They went 92-69 in the regular season and finished first in the American League Central, 6.5 games ahead of Kansas City and Detroit. They earned the AL’s No. 2 playoff seed and a bye in the wild-card round. They won a close AL Division Series with the upstart Tigers, 3 game to 2, but fell easy prey to the Yankees in the AL Championship Series, winning just one of five games.

Fantasy Stud?

Closer Emmanuel Clase had an amazing year and could state a case to be the team’s stud.  However, this title just has to go to José Ramírez.

• – Was drafted in the first round and did not disappoint (finished as a Top 5 fantasy player)
• – He had it all: health, volume and production
• – He played 158 games and slashed .279/.335/.537 (all near to career averages)
• – He did admittedly over-perform slightly, especially SLG (.262 xBA and .460 xSLG)
• – Set new career highs in runs scored (114) and stolen bases (41! Not bad for a 32-year-old slugger!)
• – Tied career high with 39 homers
• – 141 wRC+ and 6.5 WAR
• – Set a career high in max exit velocity of 116.6 mph
• – His 12% strikeout rate was in the 98th percentile, exceptional for a power hitter.
• – Still displayed above average speed which has not shown any signs of slowing in recent years
• – Was honored with his sixth All-Star Game
• – He will be a Top 10 pick again in 2025

Fantasy Dud?

Andrés Giménez wasn’t a total bust but he sure was disappointing. He was often drafted in the 100-125 range but barely finished as a Top 200 player. 

• – He hit 6 fewer homers and scored 12 fewer runs than 2023
• – His OBP fell below .300
• – Had an overall triple slash-line of .252/.298/.340
• – Despite a career-high number of plate appearances, he had fewer doubles, fewer triples and walked less often than he did in 2023
• – He maintained an excellent 15.3% strikeout rate but most other advanced metrics were far below MLB averages (average exit velocity, barrel%, chase% and walk% all in the bottom 10%)
• – It now appears that his excellent 2022 season (.297/.371/.466) is a clear outlier
• – Was traded to Blue Jays in December 2024

Fantasy Surprise?

Ben Lively was not draftable in 2024. He wasn’t even in the majors during the 2020, 2021 or 2022 seasons. He reemerged with the Reds in 2023 but had a 5.38 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. Needless to say, there were no expectations of Lively in 2024 – not in real life nor in fantasy.

Surprise! Lively was a key part of the team’s success. He began the year on the injured list due to an illness but debuted on April 17 and was in the starting rotation the rest of the year. He had a good first half then faltered in August (5.40 ERA). Just when fantasy managers believed that he had finally reverted to being “just Ben Lively,” he regrouped down the stretch run with a strong 3.15 ERA in September.

• – He started 29 games and went 13-10 with 3.81 ERA and 1.25 WHIP
• – He was very effective but you can’t mistake him for a strikeout artist (just 118 strikeouts in 151 innings; 18.7 K% was bottom 20% in MLB and 90.2 average fastball was bottom 6%!)
• – Somewhat over-performed his advanced stats ( xERA 4.02, FIP 4.66, xFIP 4.57)
• – He wasn’t a star but receiving Top 250 value from someone who wasn’t draftable coming into the season was definitely a boon

Player Breakdowns:

Hitters

Josh Naylor  – 1B

He had a career year in 2023 with his best batting average (.308) and OPS (.842), so expectations were pretty high entering 2024 and he was regularly drafted around the Top 125. He ended up batting just .243, which was 65 points lower than previous year and 20 points below his career average, so there were times during the season when he seemed disappointing.

However, he mashed 31 homers (almost twice the number from 2023) and easily established personal bests in runs scored (84) and RBI (108), so this strong production more than offset the lower-than-expected batting average. His triple slash line was .243/.320/.456 in 152 games (expected stats were pretty close). He had impressive walk and strikeout rates for a slugging first baseman (16.6 K% (80th percentile) and 9.2 BB% (64th percentile)).

He finished the season just outside of the Top 50 and it is probably not realistic to expect a repeat of 2023’s excellent .308 batting average (he hit .243-.256 in all of his other seasons) but a repeat of his 2024 overall production is possible as the 27-year-old enters his prime years.

He should be targeted somewhere between picks 75 and 100 in 2025 drafts.

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Steven Kwan – OF

You were left scratching your head if you followed Kwan in 2024. He was certainly a value because he was drafted in the 200 range but finished as a Top 150 player. However, it the way that Kwan got to that point which was interesting – and confusing.

Few players started the season as hot as Kwan. He hit .350 in April and even chipped in a couple homers which wasn’t bad for a guy with just 11 homers in the past two seasons combined. He continued his success into early May but then trouble struck when he strained his hamstring. He spent almost four weeks on the injured list but returned at the end of May and was even better than before as he hit .374 in June with four more homers. Kwan was blistering along at a .352/.407/.512 pace at the break and was named as a starter in his first All-Star Game.

Unfortunately, Kwan’s performance fell off a cliff the rest of the season. He hit just .212 the rest of July and .207 in August. Things worsened in September when he hit just .195 and missed two weeks with back tightness.

Overall, hit .292/.368/.425 in 122 games with 14 homers (career high), 44 RBI and 83 runs scored, which was not too far off from his .286 xBA and .390 xSLG. He stole a career-low 12 bases and career-worst success rate of 71%, likely due to his missed time and possible lingering hamstring concerns. His first half success was inflated by an extremely high BABIP (at one point in June, his 15-game rolling BABIP reached .500!) while second half woes were due in part to extremely low BABIP (15-game rolling BABIP sank all the way down to .120 in late August)

Although was bad in the second half, he was MUCH better in the playoffs when he hit .381 in 10 games. He has been in MLB for just three years but is unlikely to be as good as he was in the first half AND unlikely to be as bad as he was in the second half. If it all balances out in 2025, he’ll probably return a top 150 value again.

Lane Thomas – OF

The Guardians acquired Thomas from the Washington Nationals at the July trade deadline. The trade cost them their No. 8 prospect according to MLB Pipeline (Alex Clemmey), No. 22 prospect Rafael Ramirez Jr. and infielder José Tena.

Thomas performed well as a first-time starter for the Nats in 2022 but really exploded in 2023 when he hit .268 with 28 homers, 86 RBI and 20 steals. He was in the midst of another good year for the Nats in 2024 although it was “good” in a different way. His average fell a little to .253 and he hit just eight homers. The biggest news was on the base paths as he stole an amazing 28 bases in just 77 games! That’s a career-high for him with two months still remaining in the season. That accomplishment was even more amazing when you consider that Thomas missed a month of action due to a Grade 2 MCL left knee sprain that he sustained in late April. He stole 11 bases in July and looked fully ready for success when he was traded to the Guardians at the trade deadline.

Thomas disappointed at the plate and on the base paths during his first two months with Cleveland. In 53 games, he had a pitiful batting average of .209 and hit seven homers. His stolen bases nearly disappeared as he swiped just four bases and was caught twice.

He had a triple slash of .237/.309/.400 in 130 games overall with 15 homers and 63 RBI, which nearly matched his xBA of .246 and xSLG of .383. He was not an efficient runner: had 32 steals but was caught in 14 other attempts, despite his usual 93rd percentile sprint speed. He had a wRC+ 99 and 1.3 WAR.

He struck out 25.9% of the time, which nearly matches his career average and ranked in the bottom 25% in MLB. Almost all other advanced metrics were at or below MLB averages per his Statcast page.

He was frequently drafted around pick 100 but finished just outside the Top 150. His high and not-improving strikeout rate makes it hard to expect big improvement heading into 2025 so consider him closer to pick 150 than the 100 pick that he cost in 2024.

Best of the Rest

David Fry…Was a bit of a cheat code as he retained eligibility at catcher but in reality was a utility player who was often seen at first base, in the outfield or at DH. Played 122 games and hit .263/.356/.448 with 14 homers and 51 RBI. He really started capturing attention in May when he hit .383 with seven homers. Fry cooled off considerably the rest of the way, especially in the second half when he hit just .237. He caught 22 games so should retain catcher eligibility in 2025. Even though he was better than anticipated, he finished outside the Top 400 and should not be considered in standard 5×5 12- or 15-team leagues.

Bo Naylor…After batting .237 with 11 homers and five steals in limited action during 2023, Bo Naylor was a popular breakout prediction at the catcher position heading into 2024. Those hopes seemed like ancient news by the time the season ended as Naylor was a bust. He hit just .201/.264/.350 and those numbers were not a fluke as they were almost identical to his expected stats. Naylor hit 13 homers, had 39 RBI and stole six bases in 123 games. He had a reasonable strikeout rate in 2023 but it ballooned to a hideous 31.4% in 2024 (bottom 5% in MLB). Almost all of his advanced metrics were below average. Naylor will be nothing more than late round dart throw in deep two-catcher leagues until he makes significant improvements.

Kyle Manzardo…Acquired from Tampa in July 2023 and made MLB debut in May 2024 when Kwan was injured. Sent back to Triple-A in mid-June after hitting .207 with zero homers in his first 29 games, almost all of which were as the DH. Was recalled in September and fared much better by hitting .270 and swatting five homers. Overall, ended with a .234 average in 53 games. Unlikely to provide much value in standard leagues during 2025 unless he carves out a starting role.

Jhonkensy Noel…Called up in late June for his MLB debut just weeks before turning 23 years old. The 6’3″ 250-pound slugger captured attention with loud contact and by hitting five homers in his first 18 MLB games. Had 198 plate appearances in 67 games, hitting .218/.288/.486 with 13 homers and 28 RBI. Over that small sample, Noel showed top 5% barrel rate and bat speed. He had a 31.8% strikeout rate overall but was particularly bad in September when the rate increased to 35% and his batting average was a homerless .118. The young slugger has a great nickname (“Big Christmas”) but must improve his sky-high strikeout rate to be relevant.

Pitchers

Triston McKenzie – SP

Oh my, how the mighty have fallen. Ok, maybe that’s a bit too strong for the likes of McKenzie, but things sure have gone poorly for the lanky right-hander since his 2022 breakout season. He made 30 starts that year and had a 2.96 ERA and 0.95 WHIP – numbers that he hasn’t even approached for the past two seasons.

McKenzie missed almost all of 2023 with injuries to his shoulder and elbow. He was bombed in his season debut on April 1 (no kidding!) but managed to win two of his next three starts despite allowing lots of traffic on the bases. His ERA improved to 3.23 by mid-May although he continued to suffer a high WHIP. Things worsened for McKenzie thereafter, especially in late June when he gave up 12 runs in just 7.2 innings over three starts. At that point, the Guardians had seen enough and sent McKenzie to Triple-A.

For the season, he was 3-5 in 16 starts with awful ratios (5.11 ERA, xERA 5.59 and 1.56 WHIP). He was particularly wild and his 14.4% walk rate ranked among the worst in all of MLB. Going to the minors didn’t help as he was similarly wild and ineffective. McKenzie will not be fantasy-worthy in 2025 barring a miraculous turnaround.

Tanner Bibee – SP

Remember that question about how Cleveland’s three rookie pitchers from 2023 would fare in their sophomore seasons? Tanner Bibee was one of those three guys and he no trouble repeated the previous year’s success.

Bibee made 31 starts and went 12-8 with a 3.47 ERA and excellent 1.12 WHIP. That ERA wasn’t quite as good as it was in 2023 but his WHIP improved and he was better at getting strikeouts. He fanned 187 batters in 173.2 innings and his 26.3 K% ranked in the top 25% in MLB. His walk rate improved and placed him in the top 25% of that metric, too. One of Bibee’s few weaknesses was his low ground ball rate. It ranked in the bottom 20% in 2023 and sank further in 2024 to the bottom 10%, leaving him vulnerable to giving up the long ball.

Bibee was usually drafted before pick No. 110 but provided excellent value by almost cracking the Top 75 at year’s end. He somewhat overperformed (xERA was 3.80) and it might be hard for him to significantly improve unless he can start inducing more grounders. Those factors might make it hard to take another step forward in 2025 but he’s certainly worth being selected before No. 100.

Gavin Williams – SP

Gavin Williams is another one of Cleveland’s 2023 rookie starters who was intriguing to fantasy managers heading into 2024. However, unlike Bibee, his sophomore year was rocky.

Williams had a problem early in spring training when he hurt his elbow while throwing a weighted ball. He was only expected to miss a week or two but then suffered a setback in April at the team’s Arizona training complex. He couldn’t make his season debut until July.

His first start was on July 3 and he started the rest of the season without further elbow problems but had very mixed results. He sparkled in a six inning, one-run win at Minnesota and a seven inning, one-hitter at Kansas City. On the other hand, he gave up five runs or more on four different occasions, including once to the lowly White Sox.

He made 16 starts and went 3-10, with a 4.86 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. His advanced stats were a bit better including 4.14 xERA, 3.67 FIP and 4.12 xFIP. He had 79 strikeouts in 76 innings with a 23.8 K% that was close to league average. His 96.6 mph four-seamer was almost a full tick above his rookie year speed and was nearly in the top 10% in MLB. He had an elevated walk rate of 9.6% that ranked in the bottom third in MLB.

It’s hard to adequately judge his performance because he missed so much time. However, Williams has the pedigree (former first rounder from the 2021 MLB draft), a high-end fastball and favorable team context, so he is worth a mid- to late-round selection in standard 2025 drafts as long as he is healthy during spring training.

Logan Allen – SP

The final member of Cleveland’s 2023 rookie trifecta to discuss is Logan Allen. He won 7 games in 2023 with a decent 3.81 ERA with 119 strikeouts in 125.1 innings. However, his high 1.40 WHIP served as a warning sign.

In short, Allen was a disaster in 2024. He began the year as a member of the starting rotation, winning his first two starts and three of his first five. That’s not bad at all until you consider his WHIP. By April 30, his WHIP matched 2023’s 1.40 mark. Things would only get worse for Allen as the season progressed.

Allen turned in a remarkably bad 1.72 WHIP in May yet somehow remained in the starting rotation and even won three games. He produced another poor WHIP in June (1.52). After walking four batters in 4.1 innings in his first July start, he was pulled from the game and demoted to Triple-A. He was recalled for two starts in August but fared even worse (1.90 WHIP!!).

Overall, Allen started 20 games and went 8-5. His 5.73 ERA was fully supported by a 5.89 xERA. His final WHIP was 1.58 and many of his advanced stats were in the bottom 10% in MLB. He wasn’t any better in Triple-A where he had a 5.36 ERA in 10 games. His performance gives little hope for fantasy relevance in 2025.

Shane Bieber – SP

Bieber opted for non-surgical rehab in the off-season for elbow inflammation and looked good going into 2024. He made two excellent starts in April when he threw 12 shutout innings, impressively striking out 20 batters while yielding just one walk. Unfortunately, renewed elbow troubles and subsequent tests revealed that he needed Tommy John surgery, which was performed in April. He won’t be available to pitch until the middle of 2025.

This was a potentially brutal blow for Bieber as he was to be a first-time free agent after the season. However, he was interested in remaining with Cleveland and the pitching-needy Guardians felt likewise. In December, a reunion was cemented when the two sides agreed on a one-year, $10 million deal for 2025 that includes a $16 million player option for 2026.

Matthew Boyd – SP

Boyd had Tommy John surgery in 2023 while he was with the Tigers and subsequent rehab cost him most of his 2024 debut season with the Guardians. He finally appeared in mid-August and pitched very well during the rest of the season. He was 2-2 in eight starts and posted a 2.72 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP (both ratios were much better than his career averages). His control didn’t seem to suffer in this small sample as his walk rate matched his career average while his strikeout rate was one of the best of his career. Boyd was even better in the playoffs when he allowed only one earned run and struck out 14 batters in just 11.2 innings.

Boyd’s successful two-month stint helped him land a two-year, $29 million deal with the Cubs in December 2024. Injuries have prevented Boyd from pitching a full regular season since 2019 and he’ll turn 34 before spring training, so he is a risky but potentially worthwhile pick in 2025 drafts.

Emmanuel Clase  – RP

Emmanuel Clase was one of the best fantasy players in 2024. He wasn’t just a top closer, but actually one of the Top 10 overall players. Take a look at his numbers:

• – 74 appearances and 74.1 innings (fourth straight year with over 70 appearances)
• – 4-2 with the second-highest number of save in MLB (47 saves)
• – Third consecutive year with more than 40 saves
• – He had just 3 blown saves
• – His ratios were simply unreal: 0.61 ERA (no, that’s not a typo!) and 0.66 WHIP
• – Even though he was nearly un-hittable, his 24.4% strikeout rate was only a tad above the MLB average
• – Otherwise, his advanced metrics were in the top 2-3% of MLB pitchers including his barrel rate, hard-hit rate and incredibly low walk rate of just 3.7%

It is completely unreasonable to expect a repeat in 2025 as no one can be counted on for a sub-1.00 ERA, especially in this case as Clase’s xERA was 2.42. Even though regression is virtually guaranteed, don’t count on Clase being available in the fourth round or later in 2025 drafts. After all, his 2024 ADP was around No. 50 and he will surely be targeted earlier in 2025. We’re not encouraging a third-round selection; just be aware that someone in your league could very well take that plunge.

Best of the Rest…

Hunter Gaddis…Look past his 0-for-5 in save chances and you’ll see that Gaddis was excellent in 2024. He threw 74.2 innings in 78 appearances as one of Cleveland’s top two setup man. He was 6-3 with 33 holds and had a 1.57 ERA and a ridiculously low 0.76 WHIP. He had a 5% walk rate (top 10% in MLB) and a league average 23.7% strikeout rate (only 66 strikeouts over those 74.2 innings, but Gaddis isn’t exactly an overwhelming pitcher). It will be hard to expect the same kind of dominance from Gaddis in 2025, especially since his xERA (2.68), FIP (2.82) and xFIP (3.94) were all a run or more higher than his actual ERA. He may still be the one of the Guardians best setup men, but may not be one of the top 10 elite holds relievers for fantasy purposes.

Cade Smith…Raise your hand if you have never heard of Cade Smith. That’s ok, because he’s “just” a reliever who made his MLB debut in 2024. Oh, but what a season it was for the rookie! He pitched a whopping 75.1 innings in 74 games. He had six wins, one save, 28 holds and fabulous ratios (1.91 ERA and 0.90 WHIP). He allowed hard contact as shown in his below average barrel and hard-hit rates. However, he had an incredible strikeout rate of 35.6%, one of the top marks in all of MLB and consistent with his minor league career. He didn’t walk many batters and his low 5.6% walk rate was in the top 20% in MLB. He’ll probably regress a little in 2025 as a repeat of his 1.7% HR/FB ratio is not likely plus his xERA was 2.50, but he’ll be worth rostering for those in need of a top setup man with volume, strikeouts and excellent ratios.

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