What was expected?

After finishing just outside the playoffs in 2023, the Reds made multiple moves in the offseason to add depth to a roster already featuring up-and-coming players like Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain, Christian-Encarnacion-Strand, Andrew Abbott, TJ Friedl, Spencer Steer, Jonathan India, Tyler Stephenson, Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo and Noelvi Marte.

They signed Jeimer Candelario, Nick Martinez, Frankie Montas and Emilio Pagan along with other smaller deals that, in the end, totalled over $61 million in free agent deals.

There was a lot of confidence that the young core would turn a corner, and the added veterans would give them an added boost to get them over the hump and into the playoffs for the first time since 2020 and that year is the only time Cincy was in the playoffs since 2013.

How did it go?

Manager David Bell was fired midseason… So not very good.

After winning 82 last year, they won just 77 this year.

They were inconsistent as they did things like sweep the Yankees at Yankee stadium but then would lose to teams they shouldn’t.

Marte was suspended for 80 games, McLain dealt with shoulder issues that ended his season, Encarnacion-Strand broke his hand, ending his season early. Candelario was not as good as advertised and he missed over a month toward the end of the season with a broken toe.

However, it was not all bad as Tyler Stephenson took a step forward and EDLC was dominant. And rookie pitcher Rhett Lowder showed promise in six starts.

Hunter Greene had himself a solid season, as did Andrew Abbott. Nick Martinez caught on the rotation and did quite well, too.

But at the end of day, the Reds never could turn the corner and find the magic that put them on the cusp of the playoffs in 2023.

Fantasy Stud?

If I didn’t answer Elly De La Cruz, I’d expect Anthony Kates and the rest of our Sports Ethos staff to vote me off the island.

All he did was lead the majors in steals with 67. He hit 25 homers and scored the 11th most runs with 105.

He slashed .259/.339/.471 with a .349 wOBA and 118 wRC+.

Despite the hella high 31.3% strikeout rate, he walked at a respectable 9.9% clip.

When it was all said and done, he was the seventh ranked fantasy player in 2024 and, showing the greatness of his competition at short, he was just the third ranked shortstop, behind two dudes named Bobby Witt Jr. and Gunnar Henderson.

Fantasy Dud?

Some candidates were Friedl, Marte and Candelario, but the answer here has to be Alexis Diaz.

He was drafted as the 14th closer off the board after converting 37 saves last year with a 30.1% strikeout rate, 3.07 ERA and 1.19 WHIP.

This year he only got 28 saves with a 22.7% strikeout rate, 3.99 ERA and 1.30 WHIP.

The ERA estimators, with exception of the xERA, were all higher than the 3.99 surface ERA . He allowed more fly balls than groundballs and he definitely saw a massive fall off in strikeouts.

Was this legit? Can we expect a bounce back?

Find out more in the player break down section below.

Fantasy Surprise?

Nick Martinez spent the year, up until August 5, as a bullpen arm/spot starter. However, he stuck in the rotation starting Aug. 5 and this is what he did:

He was 5-2 with a 2.42 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP. He struckout 53 in 63 innings pitched and walked only eight.

Pretty damn good.

Martinez struggled in 2017 with the Rangers with a 5.66 ERA and spent the next four seasons in Japan.

He made his return to the bigs in 2022 with the Padres with 47 appearances (10 starts) and then made 63 appearances (nine starts) in 2023. Each year he was respectable, but could not crack the starting rotation.

Martinez looks like he has finally found a home as a consistent starter in a big league rotation and will look to build on the porgress he made toward the end of 2025.

Player Breakdowns:

Hitters

Elly De La Cruz – SS

EDLC really took off in 2024 with a league leading 67 steals to go with 25 homers and 105 runs, as he was one of the best in fantasy baseball.

He currently does strikeout A TON with a 31.3% strikeout rate with a 33.4% whiff rate. But he was more disciplined than one may think as he had an above average 26.9% chase rate, a six point improvement from his rookie season.

Despite that improvement, he still swings at pitches in the zone at a rate well lower than league average at 61.7%. He also makes contact at pitches in the zone at a low 75.6%.

I believe the way to view this data is the amount of room for growth there is. He only needs moderate improvement in these areas to go from one of the best to a top two or three dude in fantasy baseball.

Swinging at more pitches in the zone will mean more contact and when he makes contact, he makes CONTACT. The barrel rate was 12.7%, the avgEV was 91.8 MPH, the hard-hit rate was 45.7% and the launch-angle/sweet-spot rate was 35.7%.

The more contact, means more hits and more homers. It will also mean pitchers will have to pitch around him more, meaning more walks with his solid chase rates. And that means he will steal more.

EDLC is on the verge of greatness. Draft him accordingly.

Spencer Steer – 1B/OF

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