What was expected?

The Diamondbacks nearly had a dream season in 2023 and many reasons to have high expectations for 2024. After sweeping the 2023 Wild Card Series and National League Division series, the Diamondbacks won Games 6 and 7 to take the National League pennant before finally losing to the Rangers in the World Series. They had an ace starter in Zac Gallen and two strong mid-rotation guys in Merrill Kelly and free agent signee Eduardo Rodriguez. They also had promising rookie starter Brandon Pfaadt who looked downright dominant at times in the postseason. Last year’s closer (Paul Sewald) and top setup man (Kevin Ginkel) were returning to anchor the bullpen. They even made a big move on Opening Day by signing free agent starter Jordan Montgomery.

On the hitting side, the D-backs had 2023’s NL Rookie of the Year Corbin Carroll leading off in a strong lineup that included veteran Ketel Marte and slugging first baseman Christian Walker. Also, attempted to upgrade third base production by acquiring Eugenio Suárez in an offseason trade with Seattle.

Arizona plays in the NL West so winning the division would be a long shot since the Dodgers were expected to be so good. However, second place and a Wild Card berth appeared to be available, making another extended postseason a good possibility.

How did it go?

Somehow the Diamondbacks were five games better in 2024 than they were in 2023 (89 wins in 2024, 84 in 2023), but finished in third place in the NL West, behind the Dodgers and Padres and they were eliminated from the playoffs on the final day of the regular season, when the Braves and Mets split a doubleheader (they needed one of the teams to win both games to get in). They had a better run differential than all three Wild Card teams, but poor pitching held them back all season.

On the offensive side, Corbin Carroll had a very slow start to the season, with an absolutely terrible first-half, but big years out of Ketel Marte and Eugenio Suarez and solid supporting cast seasons from Christian Walker, Lourdes Gurriel and Joc Pederson led to one of the best team offenses in the NL. They had the same amount of WAR as the Dodgers, scored the most runs and drove in the most runs, with the second best batting average and slugging percentage and fifth most home runs.

Pitching wise, though, the Diamondbacks sure could have used some much different luck. They suffered injuries to four of their five opening day starters, with Zac Gallen, Eduardo Rodriguez, Jordon Montgomery and Merrill Kelly all missing extended time at some point in the season. Brandon Pfaadt struggled to build on his brilliant post-season, alternating good months with bad (April/June/August/September ERA’s over 5; May/July ERA’s under 3.70). Incumbent closer Paul Sewald missed all of April, part of May and the final three weeks of the year and was not the same dominant reliever he was in 2023. Kevin Ginkel wasn’t the surehanded setup man they’d come to expect and they had to acquire relief help at the deadline (in the form of dominant lefty A.J. Puk). There was some bright spots though. The addition of Puk gives them a dominant setup man and left-handed pitching reliever, they have found the latest elite closer in  23-year-old Justin Martinez and Ryne Nelson emerged as a very good starter, after an extremely productive second half, thanks to a pitching change.

Fantasy Stud?

Ketel Marte was expected to be good in 2024 and he exceeded those expectations. In fact, Marte was a beast!

– had one of the best seasons in his 10-year career

– batted 0.292/0.372/0.560 (nearly matched his 0.298 xBA and 0.549 xSLG)

– 36 HRs and 95 RBI (both are career-highs)

– 7-for-8 in SB attempts

– truly excelled at home (0.323 BA) and historically does better at Chase (lifetime 0.301 at Chase and 0.266 everywhere else)

– was great vs LHP (0.342 BA)

– Statcast page is lit up in red with xBA (0.294), xSLG (0.538), EV (94.0 mph) and hard-hit % (53.3) ALL IN MLB’s TOP 5% this year!

– best barrel rate of his career (12.3%)

– highest hard-hit rate of his career (53.3%)

– second highest BB% of his career (11.1%, 85th percentile) and it has increased four consecutive years

He was drafted just outside the Top 100 in 2024 but finished the year as a tremendous value (just inside the Top 20). Hard to expect Marte to repeat his 25.7 HR/FB rate (third highest in MLB behind only Judge and Ohtani!), so expect a few less HRs in 2025 (thus a few less runs and RBI, too). Seems like ADP should be slightly worse than his 2024 actual… so maybe Top 30.

Fantasy Dud?

Several of Arizona’s players could be considered here but we’ll go with Zac Gallen. The team’s ace started the season pretty well. During the first two months, he was 4-4 with a 3.25 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 1.08 K/9. Unfortunately, Gallen was a lost cause for the next three months. He suffered a right hamstring injury in the first inning of his May 30 start and missed an entire month of action. He triumphantly returned to the mound on June 29 by giving up just one hit in a six inning win over the A’s. Success was fleeting, however, as Gallen struggled mightily with his control throughout July and August, ending up with a 5.02 ERA and 1.59 WHIP during that two-month span. Gallen finally pitched like an ace in September when he was 4-0 with strong ratios (2.67 ERA; 1.04 WHIP).

Overall, Gallen made 28 starts and went 14-6 with a 3.65 ERA (3.94 xERA) and 1.26 WHIP. He had 156 strikeouts in 148 innings. Gallen showed improved control in 2022 and 2023 when his BB/9 was under 2.25. However, his control slipped in 2024 to the tune of a 3.28 BB/9 which more closely resembled his stats from 2019-2021.

– worst K-BB% of his career (16.4%)

– fastball 93.7 mph (43rd percentile)

– chase rate 29.7% (60th percentile)

– K% of 25.1% (67th)

– Barrel rate 7.4% (56th)

– Hard-hit rate 41.0% (30th)

NOTE: Statcast page is quite average and nothing is in the top 25%

Gallen was drafted around No. 50 in 2024 but barely finished in the Top 150 due to spending a month on the injured list and losing control for two months. He’s a big question mark heading into 2025. Is he injury prone? Is he the ace that he resembled in September? Can his extremely poor showing for two months be blamed on his lengthy stint on the injured list? Expect a big variance on his 2025 ADP. Assuming full health, he should be much better than this year’s No. 150 but probably not the Top 50 guy that many expected. Thus, look for him between 75 and 100 in 2025 drafts.

Fantasy Surprise?

Eugenio Suárez was the best surprise on the Diamondbacks this year. He was barely draftable in conventional 12-team leagues after spending the past two seasons with Seattle where he batted .234 and averaged over 200 strikeouts. However, he finished in the Top 50! There’s no way that any fantasy managers could have anticipated that good of a season from Suárez.

– batted 0.256/0.319/0.469 (xBA 0.249, xSLG 0.456)

– his .256 average was 20 points higher than he averaged for two seasons in Seattle and it was his best since 2019.

– scored a career-high 90 runs, with an excellent 30 HRs and 101 RBI

– still struck out often (27.5%) but that was his best rate since 2018

– above average barrel rate (11.3%) [Caution: it has slipped three straight years]

– above average hard-hit rate (42.2%)

His value in 2025? Well, we have way too many years of subpar performance to expect him to replicate his Top 50 from this year…but even a decent step backwards would still make him draftable. Also – and this could be key – 2025 is his contract year! Early ADP is 175-ish and that seems reasonable.

Player Breakdowns:

Hitters

Christian Walker – 1B

Walker, unfortunately, only appeared in 130 games in 2024, missing more than a month due to a strained left oblique. He did perform well when healthy, though, as he had a triple-slash line of 0.251/0.335/0.468, nearly identical to his xBA (0.249) and xSLG (0.465). To go along with those numbers, he hit 26 home runs, drove in 84 base runners and scored 72 runs.

He continued to walk at a decent rate, as his 10% walk rate was in the top 25% of all big leaguers, but his strikeout rate took a turn in the wrong direction. After two seasons under 20%, his strikeout rate jumped to 24.1%, though his swing decisions were essentially the same as 2023’s, so there may have been a layer of bad luck in there.

He is a free agent as we speak, having turned down the Diamondbacks 1 year, $21 million qualifying offer. His ADP in 2024 was around pick 80 and I could see it being the same in 2025, regardless of where he ends up. He has plenty of power and makes the right kind of swing decisions that he should still have a few seasons of 25 to 35 home runs left in the tank, even if he will be 34 years old to start the season.

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Corbin Carroll – OF

Carroll’s performance was one of the biggest story lines for the D-backs in 2024. Fresh off his 2023 NL Rookie of the Year honors, the exceptionally speedy Carroll was expected to be one of MLB’s best players. He faltered somewhat in the second half of 2023 but that fact didn’t tarnish his 2024 ADP. In fact, was often drafted in the middle of the first round.

Those who drafted him were definitely panicking throughout the first half of the season, as he hit just 0.188 in April and then “improved” to 0.202 in May, with a whopping one stolen base. June wasn’t much better, with an overall stat line of 47 runs, two home runs, 23 RBI, 14 SB and a triple slash of 0.213/0.305/0.315 through the first three months of the regular season.

Things began to take a turn for the better in July, when he hit six home runs, stole six bases, scored 22 runs and drove in 16 baserunners, albeit with just a 0.221 batting average. But that was more home runs in one month than the first three, half as many runs, two-thirds as many RBI and nearly half as many stolen bases. August was a return of the elite hitter we knew from 2023, where Carroll posted a 0.280/30/11/24/2 stat line, then ended the year by hitting three more home runs in September, while scoring 22 runs, driving in 11 and stealing 13 more bases.

That second half of the season salvaged his season overall, as he ended the year with a 5×5 statline of 121 runs, 22 home runs, 74 RBI, 35 stolen bases and a 0.213 batting average. So, with that poor first half, he finished 2024 with only three home runs, two RBI and 19 stolen bases less than he did 2023 (well, and a batting average that was fifty-four points lower) and finished fifth in MLB in runs scored and seventh in stolen bases.

In 2024, he was drafted around pick five – after Bobby Witt, Ronald Acuna, Julio Rodriguez and Mookie Betts. He probably won’t end up that high again this year, as he is going around pick 12 on average in very early drafts on NFBC so far, but has been picked as early as 7th and as late as 18th. So he’s an end of the first or beginning of the second round pick with the upside to finish the year as a top five fantasy player – you just have to hope he can put together two great halves in one season.

Lourdes Gurriel – OF

Year two of Gurriel in Arizona went a slightly different direction than year one – more of a focus on contact and getting on base, less of a focus on power.

In 2024, he raised his averaged 18 points from 2023, while hitting six less home runs (and 13 less doubles, though he also had 39 less plate appearances, so some of those doubles can be attributed to time missed). He took a little while to get going, as he hit just 0.236 with a wRC+ of 77 through the end of May, with only an 18% strikeout rate, but also just a 4.8% walk rate.

From June first until the end of the year though? A triple-slash of 0.310/0.354/0.485, with 12 home runs and a 130 wRC+. And his bottom line would look even better, but he missed a few weeks in September. He dropped his strikeout rate 4% from the first-half to the second and raised his walk rate nearly five full percentage points, with a wOBA 56 points higher.

Gurriel has never been a truly elite bat, but he is not a terrible fourth or fifth outfielder, especially in high-stakes leagues. His ADP in 2024 was around pick 225, but he ended the year inside the top 150 players. In early 2025 drafts, he’s been going around pick 227 on average, with a minimum pick of 156 and a maximum pick of 291. I’d be comfortable and happy grabbing him anywhere past pick 200 if I can in 2025.

The best of the rest

Jake McCarthy was expected to be a platoon player coming into the season, but ended up appearing in 142 games and had 495 plate appearances. He had his third consectuvie season with 20 or more stolen bases, while raising his batting average 42 points, from 0.243 to 0.285. He has elite speed and decent power, though the hit skill leaves some room for improvement, with his batting average very reliant on a great BABIP. He was essentially undrafted in 2025, but finds himself drafted only six picks later than Gurriel, on average (233) in early 2025 drafts (min pick was 128, max pick was 330)…Joc Pederson came to Arizona to do two things: hit home runs and share the DH as the strong side of a platoon, which is exactly what he did. Though he only had 449 plate appearances, he hit 23 home runs (only the second time since 2019 he’s hit more than 20), stole a career high seven bases, set a career high on-base percentage of 0.393 and have ostensibly the second best offensive season of his career. He is a free agent again and will probably settle on to his sixth team in six seasons some time later in free agency and can be grabbed in 2025 drafts, right now, around pick 439. You can do a lot worse with that pick.

Pitchers

Eduardo Rodriguez – SP

The Diamondbacks signed Rodriguez to a four-year deal in the offseason. His first year in Arizona got off to a bad start when he injured his lat in spring training. The D-backs shut him down in late March yet Rodriguez remained hopeful this his absence would be short. He was wrong. In the end, Rodriguez missed the first 4+ months of the 2024 season and didn’t make a start until August 7.

Although it was good to see him try to salvage a lost season, he wasn’t too good upon his return. In 10 starts, he went 3-4 with a 5.04 ERA (xERA was even worse at 5.59) and 1.50 WHIP. It’s probably not fair to judge Rodriguez after being shelved for so long and playing in so few games, but he was at or below average in nearly every advanced metric (many were in the bottom 10-20% in MLB). Although his four seam fastball clocked in at the same 92 mph speed as it did the previous year, he suffered by far the highest barrel rate (10.8%) and hard-hit rate (42.0%) of his nine-year career.

Given a year lost to injury and ineffectiveness, it’s hard to estimate his draft worthiness for 2025. Until we see favorable reports from spring training, Rodriguez is best avoided in 12-team leagues and probably most 15-teamers, too.

Merrill Kelly – SP

Kelly was very effective in the early part of the season as well as late in the season. Unfortunately, he strained his shoulder in mid-April and spent FOUR MONTHS on the injured list, missing games from mid-April until mid-August.

When Kelly pitched, he pitched pretty well. He went 1-0 with a 2.50 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in his three April starts before being injured. He got off to an understandably slow start when he returned in August (four starts, 2-0 but 6.75 ERA and 1.69 WHIP). He was much better in September when he started five games and had a 3.58 ERA and excellent 0.98 WHIP. He is not normally a high strikeout pitcher but whiffed 30 batters in 27.2 innings in September. His final season totals were: 13 starts, 5-1, ERA of 4.03 and a 1.17 WHIP.

Similar to Rodriguez, it’s hard to properly value Kelly based on a year with so much time on the injured list. However, with a more recent track record of sustained success (Kelly was very good in 2022 and 2023), he should be drafted before Rodriguez. Probably worth a shot in the final round or two of 12-teamers. Definitely should be drafted (late) in conventional 15-team leagues.

Jordan Montgomery – SP

Montgomery won a World Series with the Rangers in 2023 and hoped to parlay that into a big payday as a 2024 free agent. The market was slow, though, and Montgomery didn’t get a deal until signing a two-year, $47.5 million contract with Arizona on Opening Day. Year 1 of that deal was an unmitigated disaster.

Where to start on that disaster: he missed all of spring training, didn’t make a start until week four and missed a month with right knee inflammation. He made 25 total appearances (21 starts, four relief appearances), had an 8-7 record, but a horrendous 6.23 ERA and 1.65 WHIP, with only 83 strikeouts in 117 innings. His xERA was 5.10, which isn’t nearly as bad as 6.23, but also not great. He ranked in the bottom 5% of major league starters with just a 15.6% strikeout rate, with a career low 6.38 K/9, which has declined for five consecutive seasons.

I’m avoiding year two of Montgomery in Arizona in 2025, but he has a min pick of 269 and max pick of 449 in early drafts so far, with some drafters feeling much braver than I.

Brandon Pfaadt – SP

Though 2024 wasn’t exactly a great season for Pfaadt, it was a much needed improvement upon his rookie season. His strikeout rate went up, while his walk and home run rates went down. He induced more ground balls than in 2023, while lowering both his fly-ball and line drive rates.

He finished 2024 with a 4.71 ERA (which was a full run worse than his xERA – 3.75, FIP – 3.61 and xFIP – 3.58), 1.24 WHIP, an 11-10 record and 185 strikeouts in 181.2 innings pitched. He showed stark improvements in his statcast numbers, as they all dropped his sophomore season: avgEV from 90.1 MPH to 89.4 MPH (not a huge drop, but slower fly balls means less home runs), barrel rate from 11.7% to 8.1% and hard-hit rate from 43.6% to 38.8%.

He threw his four-seam fastball less, more than doubled his sinker usage and maintained the usage rates of his off-speed and breaking pitches, while testing a split-finger fastball from time to time. His fastball ended up being his most effective pitch, as he set it up more with his secondary pitches and located more effectively than he had in his rookie year.

He ended the year on a sour note, as his second half ERA was almost two full runs higher than his first, but that hasn’t seemed to affect early drafters, as he is going around pick 177 on average, with a min pick of 117 and a max pick of 234. Any chance of him coming into 2025 with a discount will probably be out the window by the time we get into February and March drafts, which means he may be too rich for my blood. I would avoid him early in drafts, but would be willing to snap him up if you can get him after the first 13 or 14 rounds of high-stakes drafts.

The best of the rest

Ryne Nelson struggled through the early part of the season, before making a pitching change, upping his fastball usage rate from 49.4% to 60.2% and dropping his cutter usage rate a full 10%. From the beginning of the season through his start on June 14th, he had 11 starts, striking out 41 over 57.1 innings, with a 2.83 BB/9 and a 5.49 ERA (4.32 FIP, 4.66 xFIP); from June 20th until the end of the season (note: he missed two weeks with shoulder inflammation before appearing for 3 innings in the final game of the season), he started 14 games, struck out 85 over 93.1 innings, with a 1.54 BB/9 and a 3.47 ERA (3.38 FIP, 3.56 xFIP). Those are two different pitchers, one of whom is worth drafting and the other not. I’ll be curious to see if he sticks with the pitch usage changes going into 2025, so his spring training starts will be worth paying attention to. If he sticks to the usage change and maintains gains in K/9 and BB/9, then he should sneak into the backend of the Snakes’ rotation and be a viable fantasy SP…Paul Sewald began the year on the injured list and ended the year on the injured list. Even though he wasn’t as great in AZ as he was in Seattle in 2023, the Diamondbacks brought him back to be the closer again. After he came off the DL and shook off the rust, he was dominant, by the end of June he was rocking an ERA of 0.54 and a WHIP of 0.48 and was a perfect 11-for-11 on save opportunities. He fell apart over the second half though and pitched so poorly in July he lost the closer’s job. He took two losses, blew four saves and had some terrible ratios in July (10.80 ERA, 2.20 WHIP), unusable ratios in August (4.66 ERA, 1.34 WHIP) and then pitched in three games in September before hitting the injured list due to a neck injury. He is a free agent for 2025 and will probably settle into a middle reliever role somewhere…Justin Martinez is the new kid on the block, closing games, striking out a ton of batters and blowing by hitters with a 100-miles-per-hour fastball. 2024 was only his second appearance at the big league level and his first full season in the majors, and he was absolutely electric. He struck out 91 batters over 72.2 innings, walked 36 and allowed only two home runs and 20 total earned runs. He throws four pitches: traditional four-seam fastball, splitter, sinker and slider, with his splitter and slider his two best pitches. He coaxed batters into chasing pitches 31.4% of the time, with a 14.2% swining strike rate and allowed contact on 70% of the time. He will probably be the Diamondbacks closer to start the year, unless they go out and grab a more experienced closer via free agency or trade. He has the potential to be a top 10 closer if given the reigns full time…I wanted to give A.J. Puk a shout just because of how much better he pitched in Arizona than he did in Miami. He nearly doubled his strikeout rate, from 23.6% to 41.7% and saw his walk rate drop from 12% to 4.9%. I do not know how the Diamondbacks will use Puk in 2025, as the door to starting could still be open, they could use him as a lethal lefty out of the pen, as a setup man or even give him a shot at closing, but I would keep him on the short list of intriguing pitchers with no defined role as of now.

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