Early Week Streamers for June 9th – June 12th

  • This year, we’ve decided to do two streaming articles a week for our premium subscribers. The podcast only provides one day of streamers at a time (a day ahead), whereas the streamer articles will provide three and four day streaming outlooks, giving you a leg up on those non-premium Sports Ethos members (and those in your league who don’t use Sports Ethos at all…even though they should).

    The articles will come out every Sunday and every Thursday. As I will be producing Sunday’s article, at the time it is published, it will have the most up-to-date information for Monday through Wednesday’s pitching schedules and streams. If there are any changes, the article will be updated to reflect that, so check back daily. On Monday night, I’ll update Wednesdays streamers, as I have more information and less TBD spots on the schedule. On Tuesday night, I will update and post any streams for Thursday, as there will be more information available for the few Thursday games we will have and there should be no TBD spots on the schedule for that day.

    You will notice that I have very few single digit percentage rostered players during the early part of the week and that’s because I do not want to assume a ton of risk early in the week. There is zero reason to be desperate before Friday, at the earliest, so there is zero reason to take on any kind of high risk stream. But, if you DO want to have risk on a daily basis with your streams, I will highlight the low-rostered and/or high risk streams that might have a modicum of upside, but I wouldn’t personally start, after I’ve discussed the streams I do recommend.

    **All stats for Monday and Tuesday streamers are through Friday’s games, Wednesday’s and Thursday’s are through Monday’s games.**

    Monday – June 9th – Probable Starters

    Unfortunately, there are no recommended streams for Monday. The starters are either performing poorly or facing teams performing too well. On to Tuesday.

    High-risk: Brayan Bello vs Rays, Matt Boyd @ Phillies, Wade Miley @ Guardians, Yusei Kikuchi vs Athletics, Dustin May @ Padres, Aaron Civale vs Braves, Mick Abel vs Cubs, Emerson Hancock @ Diamondbacks, Andre Pallante vs Blue Jays, Luis L. Ortiz vs Reds, Michael Burrows vs Marlins, Jeffrey Springs @ Angels

    Tuesday – June 10th – Probable Starters

    **MIA and LAD are both currently TBD for Tuesday starts. I will update this as soon as I have further information.**

    Miles Mikolas – STL – vs TOR – 13%

    Believe it or not, but Mikolas has been pretty dang good over his last five starts. He has pitched 27.1 innings, striking out 18, walking five and allowing just eight earned runs and three home runs. He has allowed more fly balls than ground balls in this time, but just a 17.2% line drive rate. He’s been very aggressive with hitters, throwing a first pitch strike in 67.9% of at-bats and throwing 62.1% of his pitches in the zone, which has resulted in an 85.6% contact rate. He has been a bit lucky, what with a 10.1% barrel rate, a 43.8% hard-hit rate and an 82.7% strand rate, but just a .279 BABIP, so it hasn’t been all luck.

    He’s facing a Blue Jays team that has struggled a bit facing right-handed pitchers on the road over the past months. They have an 89 wRC+, which is the eighth lowest in the league, with a .296 wOBA, also eighth lowest, and a .665 OPS, also eighth. They have struck out just 14.6% of the time though, which is easily the lowest in the league, with a 9.5% walk rate, which is the tied-for seventh highest, with the Angels. They hit essentially the same amount of ground balls as they do fly balls, but have the seventh lowest line drive rate, 17.8%, just ahead of the White Sox. They have the tenth highest hard-hit rate and the sixth lowest soft-hit rate, but, just a .137 ISO. That has led to just 10 home runs, the 11th lowest total, even though they have the 16th most plate appearances over the past month against RHP on the road. They have the 10th fewest extra base hits, tied-for 13th most double-plays (seven; tied with the Royals, Reds and Mets) and are tied for the third fewest steals, with four other teams, with just three.

    I don’t expect Mikolas to have a huge strikeout game, but I can see him holding the Blue Jays to three runs or less, with maybe a walk, a handful or so of strikeouts and a quality start.

    Lance McCullers Jr. – HOU – vs CWS – 47%

    The McCullers train is about to leave the station and the time for boarding is now. After a horrendous second start, where he allowed seven earned runs and three walks over one-third of an inning, McCullers has been pretty great. Over he last four starts, he has pitched 20.1 innings, struck out 29, walked six, allowing only five earned runs (seven total) and two home runs. He allowed half of those walks in one game and walked only one batter per in the other three. He has allowed more ground balls than fly balls and has just an 18% line drive rate. He has a 7.8% barrel rate but an obscene 54.9% hard-hit rate, but has been lucky stranding base runners, 80.2% strand rate, and a little lucky with his BABIP of .286. Where he has excelled the most is limiting contact, with just a 72.7% rate, and forcing swings-and-miss, with a 12.1% swinging strike rate. He has thrown his slider more than any other pitch and it has been performing great for him, with a 27.7% whiff rate and 13 strikeouts in 41 plate appearances, but his knuckle-curve has been his best pitch, with a .067 batting average against and a 54.8% whiff rate.

    And he is facing a White Sox team that is again performing as one of the worst offenses in baseball, with their 77 wRC+ against RHP on the road of the last month the fourth lowest in baseball. Their .280 wOBA and .625 OPS are also the fourth lowest, though they have the 11th lowest strikeout rate, 21.2%, and the 11th highest walk rate, 8.8%. They hit more ground balls than fly balls, hit line drives 17.2% of the time, sixth lowest, with the tied-for second lowest hard-hit rate, 28.4%, with the Athletics, but the lowest soft-hit rate, just 9.6%. They have the sixth fewest plate appearances against righties on the road over the past month, but just the third fewest home runs, six (just one ahead of the Giants and Dodgers), and the second fewest runs, 24. They are tied-for the seventh fewest extra base hits, with just 23, with the Reds.

    I think McCullers is going to have another great outing. He should limit walks, strikeout at least a batter per inning and limit an already poor offense, grabbing his third straight quality start and second win in the process.

    Grant Holmes – ATL – @ MIL – 41%

    Holmes’ sophomore season has not been as good as his limited rookie season, but he has been much better over his last five games, having allowed no more than three earned runs in any game and logging three quality starts. He threw 28.1 innings over said five starts, with 29 strikeouts, nine walks, three home runs and 10 earned runs, while being an extreme ground ball pitcher. He had a 55.7% ground ball rate in this time, with just an 11.4% line-drive rate, which is good, because his statcast data was a little rough. He had an 11.4% barrel rate and a 43% hard-hit rate, but an average launch angle of just 7.2 degrees, which is what has limited fly balls and even home runs. He as a 76.1% contact rate, which is kind of average, with a decent 31.3% chase rate and an 11.5% swinging strike rate. He attacks batters early, with a 57.3% first-pitch strike rate, and throws pitches in the zone basically half the time, with a 49.9% rate.

    And he gets to face a team that is one of the least productive teams at home against right handed pitching over the past month, the Brewers. They have an 83 wRC+, which is the sixth lowest in the league, with a .288 wOBA, also sixth lowest, and a .629 OPS, tied-for fourth lowest, with the Angels. They have the highest walk rate in the league, at 12.6%, and the 11th lowest strikeout rate, just 19.1%. They do hit more fly balls than ground balls, but have the tied-for seventh lowest hard-hit rate, 30.6%, with the Braves, and the highest soft hit-rate, 20.2%. That has led to just seven home runs, tied with the Diamondbacks for eighth fewest, even though the Brewers have the 11th most plate appearances against righties at home over the past month. They’ve scored 34 runs, tied with the Angels for 19th, hit just 17 extra base hits, tied-for third with the Nationals, and have stolen the third most bases, with 13.

    Holmes has really only struggled against good offenses so far this season and the Brewers offense is not good right now. He should strike out a handful of batters, probably walk two, but limit the Brew Crew to three or fewer runs while throwing at least five innings.

    High-risk: Quinn Priester vs Braves, Jose Soriano vs Athletics, Sawyer Gipson-Long @ Orioles, Carson Palmquist vs Giants, Slade Cecconi vs Reds, Shane Smith @ Astros, Colin Rea @ Phillies, Lucas Giolito vs Rays, Cade Povich vs Tigers, Mitch Spence @ Angels, Griffin Canning vs Nationals, Kyle Harrison @ Rockies


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