Early Week Streamers for June 23rd – 26th

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  • By Anthony Kates

    Last Updated on June 22, 2025 8:55 pm by Anthony Kates | Published: June 22, 2025

    This year, we’ve decided to do two streaming articles a week for our premium subscribers. The podcast only provides one day of streamers at a time (a day ahead), whereas the streamer articles will provide three and four day streaming outlooks, giving you a leg up on those non-premium Sports Ethos members (and those in your league who don’t use Sports Ethos at all…even though they should).

    The articles will come out every Sunday and every Thursday. As I will be producing Sunday’s article, at the time it is published, it will have the most up-to-date information for Monday through Wednesday’s pitching schedules and streams. If there are any changes, the article will be updated to reflect that, so check back daily. On Monday night, I’ll update Wednesdays streamers, as I have more information and less TBD spots on the schedule. On Tuesday night, I will update and post any streams for Thursday, as there will be more information available for the few Thursday games we will have and there should be no TBD spots on the schedule for that day.

    You will notice that I have very few single digit percentage rostered players during the early part of the week and that’s because I do not want to assume a ton of risk early in the week. There is zero reason to be desperate before Friday, at the earliest, so there is zero reason to take on any kind of high risk stream. But, if you DO want to have risk on a daily basis with your streams, I will highlight the low-rostered and/or high risk streams that might have a modicum of upside, but I wouldn’t personally start, after I’ve discussed the streams I do recommend.

    **All stats for Monday and Tuesday streamers are through Friday’s games, Wednesday’s and Thursday’s are through Monday’s games.**

    Monday – June 23rd – Probable Starters

    Ryan Yarborough – @ CIN – 35%

    UPDATE: Yarborough was placed on the IL by the Yankees after this article was published. He’s pitched through oblique pain for two weeks, but ultimately the Yanks decided to place him on the IL. Allan Winans will come up from Triple-A to start on Monday instead, but I would stay away from him.

    Yarborough has made 16 appearances this season – eight relief to start the year and now eight straight starts. He has been more effective as a starter than he has been as a reliever, with a lower walk rate, lower home run rate, less fly balls and more ground balls. He’s not much of a strikeout pitcher, with just a 7.43 K/9, a 23.9% chase rate but a decent 11.5% swinging strike rate – the same as Hunter Brown, one of the best pitchers in the American League. He has very solid statcast data – a 6% barrel rate, 33.6% hard-hit rate and just an 86.8 MPH average exit velocity. He’s limiting good quality of contact and greatly limiting hard-hit balls, which makes it much harder to hit home runs and create good quality offensive innings. This comes in handy for Yarborough, who is more of a fly ball than a ground ball pitcher, with a fly ball rate six percentage points higher than his ground ball rate, but also with just a 15.7% line drive rate, which is great. He’s had some BABIP and strand rate luck, but when you generate weakly hit balls, poor quality contact and don’t walk many batters, you can also help to generate your own luck.

    The Reds have struggled against left-handed pitching as of late, with just a 72 wRC+ over the past month, which is the fifth lowest in the league. They have just a .283 wOBA, seventh lowest, .638 OPS, fifth lowest, and a .119 ISO, sixth lowest. They do have a 20.8% strikeout rate, which is the ninth lowest in the league, and an 8.4% walk rate, tied with the Mets and Marlins for the ninth highest. They hit more ground balls than fly balls and have the eighth lowest line drive rate, with the second lowest hard-hit rate and the second highest soft hit rate. They have the 19th most plate appearances against lefties over the past month, but have hit just four home runs, tied with the Rangers and Rockies for fewest in the league. They have scored just 18 runs, second fewest and just two more than the Giants, they only have one stolen base and have hit into five double plays. They also have just 17 extra base hits, tied with four other teams for fifth fewest.

    Facing a team like the Reds, Yarborough should continue to find success. They don’t make quality contact, they struggle to elevate ball, achieve hard hits and even get on base, things that Yarborough has excelled at on the pitching side. Plus, he should be staked to enough runs for a win, pitching for the offensive factory that is the Yankees.

    Chad Patrick – MIL – vs PIT – 27%

    Patrick has been a quiet revelation for the Brewers, an unheralded prospect and out-of-nowhere rookie pitcher that has been a steadying hand during the rocky boat ride that 2025 has been for the Brewers. He has been the Brewers best starting pitcher on the season, just lightly outproducing staff “ace” Freddy Peralta. He boasted decent strikeout rates in the minor leagues with okay control and, over his last six starts, has looked even more like the high strikeout guy he was in the minor leagues than he did to start the year. Over his last six starts, he has thrown 31.3 innings, allowed 13 earned runs, four home runs, 11 walks and struck out 38 batters. That has resulted in a 10.91 K/9, which rivals the numbers he put up in Double-A and below, and is more than three full strikeouts higher than in his first nine starts. Now his walks and home runs are both also up over his last six games, but neither terribly so and both within a tolerable range. He has allowed a rather high 9.5% barrel rate, but just a 35.7% hard-hit rate, so he has been able to keep most of those barreled balls inside the park. He’s allowed far more fly balls than ground balls, but has a slightly below average contact rate, 75.8%, with a 30.4% chase rate and an above average 12.9% swinging strike rate. So long as he limits hard contact and continues to get plenty of whiffs, Patrick will continue to shine.

    The Pirates have had the worst offense when facing right-handed pitching on the road over the past month and pretty handily. They have a 62 wRC+, worst in the league, and a full nine points lower than the White Sox. Their .260 wOBA, .100 ISO and .578 OPS are also the worst in the league. They also have the sixth highest strikeout rate, 24.8%, and the seventh lowest walk rate, 6.9%. They have the worst ground ball to fly ball rate in the league, which means they also have the highest ground ball rate, 49%, and the lowest fly ball rate, 31.9%, but they do have a middle of the pack line drive rate. They have the fourth lowest hard-hit rate and the ninth highest soft hit rate, which, combined with their batted ball data, has resulted in just six home runs, second fewest, over their 391 plate appearances against a right handed pitcher on the road, which is the 11th most over the past month. They have scored 34 runs, which is the sixth fewest, they have 23 extra base hits, which is tied with three teams for fourth fewest, they have hit into seven double plays, tied with three teams for the 12th most and have stolen seven bases, tied with the Rockies and Phillies for 14th most.

    This is Patrick’s first start against the division rival Pirates, but he should fare much better against their poor offense than he did against the Braves and the Cubs (no one should be blamed for getting smacked around by those two offenses, especially when everyone is healthy). He only has three wins on the season because the Brewers offense has struggled quite a bit, but he should have a strong chance to walk away with win number four and possibly even quality start number six.

    High-risk: Trevor Rogers vs Rangers, Shane Smith vs Diamondbacks, Jack Kochanowicz vs Red Sox, Paul Blackburn vs Braves, Carmen Mlodzinski @ Brewers, Stephen Kolek vs Nationals, Patrick Corbin @ Orioles, Mitchell Parker @ Padres, Eduardo Rodriguez @ White Sox, Walker Buehler @ Angels, Ben Brown @ Cardinals

    Tuesday – June 24th – Probable Starters

    **The Dodgers, Rangers, Cardinals and Padres Tuesday starters are currently to be determined, so once they are determined, we will update the list.**

    Charlie Morton – BAL – vs TEX – 21%

    Morton has turned back the clock over his last five starts, looking like the high strikeout, dominant pitcher he was not too long ago. Over those five starts, he has pitched 26 innings, allowed just seven earned runs, one home run, eight walks and struck out 34. He has three quality starts over that time frame and allowed more than two earned runs or two walks in just one start, which was the same start. His K/9 is up to 11.77, his BB/9 is under three and he is limiting home runs. And he’s performed that well while suffering through a .388 BABIP, which is absolutely atrocious, though it is offset somewhat by an 82% strand rate, which is well above league average. He’s been able to limit damage being done by that BABIP thanks to just a 4.4% barrel rate and a 33.8% hard-hit rate over these five starts. Not to mention Morton’s 44.6% ground ball rate compared to a 27.7% fly ball rate and just a 70.9% contact rate, which, combined with a 13.4% swinging strike rate and a 29.8% chase rate, has limited too many batters getting on base even with the high BABIP.

    The Rangers have been a fairly solid offense against right-handed pitching on the road over the past month, with a 108 wRC+ that is the 10th best in the league. Their .323 wOBA is also the 10th best, their .738 OPS is 11th best and their .178 ISO eighth highest. They have just a 20.3% strikeout rate and an 8.7% walk rate, both of which are in the top 11 in the league. They hit the same amount of balls on the ground as they do on the fly, they have the 11th lowest line drive rate, tied with the Orioles, with the 12th highest hard-hit rate and the second lowest soft hit rate. The Rangers have the third most plate appearances over the past month against righties on the road, so it is no surprise they have the third most home runs, 18, and the second most stolen bases, 11, tied with the Rays and Royals, but they also have the most runs scored, with 64.

    In these situations, when a pitcher is on a heater and an poor offense is performing well, I tend to lean towards the pitcher. The Rangers offense has been bad more often than it has been good this year and I believe that Morton will show up on Tuesday with a bucket of water to douse the Rangers bats.

    Ryne Nelson – ARI – @ CWS – 6%

    Nelson has made six starts this season, after ending last year on a ridiculous run (from July 7th until September 8th: 12 starts, 74.2 IP, 5 wins, 8 quality starts, 76:15 K:BB, 27 earned runs, 8 home runs; then he missed two weeks and came back for one relief appearance before the regular season ended) and starting this year in the bullpen. But he has made five of those starts since May 20th, with one relief appearance mixed in. Over these six appearances, he has pitched 29.1 innings, allowed just nine earned runs, two home runs and eight walks, while striking out 17. He allowed seven earned runs in a game against the Reds, in which he also allowed a home run and four walks, and allowed two earned runs, one home run and four walks in his other five (four starts) appearances. The strikeouts aren’t coming as often as they did last year, but he is allowing less home runs and less hard-hits, albeit with an ugly 11.4% barrel rate. He has a ground ball rate that is 13% higher than his fly ball rate and a line drive rate under 19%, though he does have a high contact rate, 85.4%, which can be attributed to a low chase and swinging strike rate, 25.7% and 7%, respectively, but also how he attacks hitters, with a 62.6% first-pitch strike rate and a 52.2% zone rate.

    Over the past month, when facing right-handed pitching at home, the White Sox have had a below league average offense. Their 101 wRC+, .315 wOBA and .712 OPS are all the 11th lowest in the league and their .134 ISO is the eighth lowest. They do have just a 19.6% strikeout rate, which is tied with the Cubs for the seventh lowest, and an 11.5% walk rate, which is the third best, and they have a fly ball rate nearly ten full percentage points higher than their ground ball rate, with the eighth lowest soft hit rate, but they also have the lowest hard-hit rate in the league. This has resulted in the White Sox hitting just eight home runs, tied with three other teams for the seventh fewest, even though they have 382 plate appearances against right-handed pitching at home over the past month, the 12th most.

    Though Nelson isn’t striking out batters at the same rate as he was last year, he has still been quite effective as a starter, especially as of late. The White Sox offense has not been that hot at home, struggling to hit for power and get on base, which Nelson should be able to exploit. Four of his last five starts have ended with one run or less and I think he makes this the fifth time in six games. And, with the powerful Diamondbacks offense behind him, he should end up in the win column as well.

    High-risk: Trevor Williams @ Padres, Justin Verlander vs Marlins, Taj Bradley @ Royals, Andrew Heaney @ Brewers, Chris Paddack vs Mariners, Cal Quantrill @ Giants, Tyler Anderson vs Red Sox, German Marquez vs Dodgers, Logan Allen vs Blue Jays, Nick Martinez vs Yankees, Sean Burke vs Diamondbacks, Luis Severino @ Tigers, Eric Lauer @ Guardians


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    June 22, 2025, 6:08 pm