For my money, nothing beats the last ten days or so before Major League Baseball’s REAL Opening Day (sorry guys, the two games played in Japan just do not get my heart a-pumpin’ when those teams come back stateside and jump back into spring training), when drafts are in full swing, projections have been made, Spring Training is a month deep, injuries are piling up and the air is electric with anticipation.

Anticipation for what, you say? For Opening Day? No, silly, for BOLD PREDICTIONS.

When I was younger, before I was writing about fantasy baseball, some of my favorite articles to read every year were the bold predictions articles. I loved to see how high analysts would dream, how many of the players I drafted were given lofty expectations and how crazy they would get with their predictions.

Then, at the end of the season, getting to go back and re-read the articles, to see how accurate or, more often than not, inaccurate, the predictions were.

And now, for the first time as a member of the fantasy baseball industry, I get to make my own bold predictions. Mind you, these aren’t bold for bold sake. There’s a kernel of achievability with all of these, you may just have to squint and dream and believe that they can happen.

Without further ado, my TEN BOLD FANTASY BASEBALL PREDICTIONS for the 2025 season:

1. Cam Smith, American League Rookie of the Year

What, you thought I WOULDN’T start this off with a complete homer take? Yeah, right.

Anyways, if you listened to our podcast, Fantasy MLB Today, back on March 18th when I previewed the AL West Division, I predicted that he would be an impactful fantasy bat and could start the year with the big league team.

There are rumors swirling that he will make the opening day roster and that he would be up only to play everyday. Whether that is in right field (where he has spent time in Spring Training) or third base is to be seen, but I believe he has played his way into a position to impact the team in a positive way.

He had one of the best debuts of any 2024 draftee last year, slashing .313/.396/.609 with 16 extra base hits (seven homers, four triples, five doubles), a 24:15 K:BB and a 179 wRC+ across three levels (A, A+, AA). Then, this spring, he’s done nothing but light the ball on fire. He has gone 11-for-26, with a triple and three home runs, with just six strikeouts against five walks.

If he makes the team on Opening Day, he stands to be their starting right fielder (keeping one of Chas McCormick or Jake Meyers on the bench) and will be given every opportunity to stay up for the entire year. And, if he stays up all year, he will be a part of the lineup that PECOTA has projected to score the most runs in the American League, which means there will be runs and RBI a-plenty. An OPS around .800 with 20 plus home runs and around 150 combined runs and RBI? Sign me up.

Editor’s note: Cam Smith was named to the Opening Day roster on March 25th.

2. Cole Ragans, American League Cy Young, #2 Fantasy SP

This one isn’t much of a stretch, I know, but I truly believe this. He finished fourth in Cy Young voting in 2024, behind Tarik Skubal, the actual winner, Seth Lugo, he of the career year at 34 years old and setting a new career high in innings pitched by SIXTY (not counting the playoffs), and Emmanuel Clase, the best reliever on the planet and someone who most likely will not replicate their season (and I don’t see another reliever landing in the top three again in 2025).

So, what’s the path to winning Cy Young for Ragans? Lots of strikeouts – he had the highest K/9 of qualified starters in 2024 (only two non-qualified starters were higher: Garrett Crochet, 12.9 K/9, and he was held back by the White Sox & Jack Flaherty, 11.2 K/9, and he was traded to the Dodgers mid-season, but finds himself back in Detroit this year) and second most overall in the league (he had five less than Skubal and he pitched 5.2 innings less than Skubal). Limiting runs – his 3.14 ERA last year was eighth best in the AL, his 2.99 FIP was second best and his ERA+ was sixth best. There’s another level for him to get to with his run suppression and that leads to a sub-3.00 ERA. And, most importantly, limiting base runners – he already does well with hits here, his H/9 was 7.1, only 0.4 behind Skubal. Where he takes the next step forward and becomes truly great, is reducing his walks. The first, second, fifth and sixth place finishers in AL Cy Young all had a BB/9 of 2.2 or lower. Ragans had a 3.2 BB/9. In his three seasons in the bigs, he has had a BB/9 between 3.24 and 3.84, and it is a problem that extends throughout every level of the minor leagues as well. He has shown positive growth in spring training, with a BB/9 of 2.89 currently, while striking out 10.61 per 9. If he can maintain those positive gains into the regular season, we are in business.

The final thing he needs? Wins, right? Well, he had 13 last year and Skubal had 18. Odds of Skubal repeating 18 wins is pretty slim, so he shouldn’t be too worried about that. Gerrit Cole won with 15 wins in 2023 and the runner-up, Sonny Gray, had only eight wins. Justin Verlander won with 18 in 2022, but he also had the best ERA and WHIP in the AL, so it wasn’t just the wins. What I am saying here, is another double-digit win season is fine. Would a few more help him? Absolutely. And I think he does win a few more games.

An end of the year line of something like 191 innings, 207 strikeouts, a 2.96 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP and 14 wins lends itself to a pretty nice Cy Young campaign. (Oh, and he is the #2 fantasy SP because Paul Skenes is the best pitcher in the universe.)

3. Jake Burger hits 40 (or more) home runs

Burger is trading in loanDepot Park in Miami or Globe Life Field in Arlington, which is like trading in a Toyota Carolla for Dodge Viper. loanDepot Park was the sixth worst stadium for right-handed home run hitters, whereas Globe Life Field was the fourth best, over the last three seasons.

In his time in a Marlins uniform, he hit 20 homers on the road and 18 in Miami, in 796 plate appearances. Before he was traded from the White Sox to the Marlins, he hit 34 home runs 548 plate appearances. He really did not like hitting in Miami and, even with his prodigious power, proved that it is difficult to hit home runs there.

I don’t think it will be a problem in Arlington, Tx. When the temperatures rise, the balls start to fly and Burger has more than enough power to hit 40 or more home runs in a season.

4. Justin Slaten ends up with the most saves in Boston’s bullpen

They should have told Liam Hendriks to take it easy and let Aroldis Chapman know they wanted him to just be an elite level middle reliever and setup man, because the guy who SHOULD be closing games in Boston is Slaten.

He’s a career reliever who posted elite-level strikeout numbers at every minor league levels, so I actually believe there is another level for him to get to when it comes to strikeouts, even if it is just up over 10 K/9, instead of up around a 12 K/9 like he had in the minors.

But, the key difference between him and Chapman is the elite control he demonstrated last year, in his rookie season. He walked less than two batters per nine innings pitched, suppressed home runs and was a ground ball over fly ball pitcher. All of the ingredients you need for an elite closer.

I don’t know how soon he becomes the closer, but we all know that Chapman has legendary control problems and Hendriks just turned 36 and has tossed five big league innings since the end of the 2022 season. If the Red Sox are serious about winning the division and making noise in the playoffs (which I think they are – they are who I predict to win the AL East), they will need someone they can trust to shut down teams at the end of games and that is Slaten.

Let’s call it the end of May and Slaten saves 20+ games from the end of May until the end of the season, ending the year as a top 12 closer.

5. Xavier Edwards steals 50+ bags, wins National League batting title, ends the year as a top 10 fantasy SS

Let’s start with the batting title first: in Edwards entire professional career, he’s only had ONE stop with 100 or more plate appearances where he didn’t hit over .300. That was in Triple-A in 2022 in the Rays organization, when he hit .246. At no other stop has he hit lower than .295. How has he done that? He makes a ton of contact – he had around an 88% contact rate in the minor leagues and has an 84.4% contact rate over 387 big league plate appearances so far. He also doesn’t strike out a lot, 17.1% at the big leagues level, but sub-15% in the minor leagues, walks a lot (around 11% in the minor leagues, 10.9% last year in Miami), doesn’t chase much (22.5% rate last year) and rarely has swinging strikes (sub-8% rate). He hits a lot of line drives (over 21% rate at Triple-A and in the majors) and lots of ground balls and uses the entire field. Luis Arraez won the NL batting title with a .314 batting average in 2024. Edwards hit .328 in just less than half as many plate appearances, but he is helped by having much more speed than Arraez. So let’s call it a .319 batting average and the title.

Now, the steals? Well, he has stolen tons of bases everywhere he has gone and has 36 in 387 big league plate appearances, right around one every eleven plate appearances. If he maintained that rate, which is better than his minor league rate but the new rules have led to more successful attempts, he won’t need more than 550 to 560 plate appearances to steal 50 bases. And he should get on base plenty, what with a batting average north of .300 and a walk rate of 10% or higher, so he will have plenty of opportunities to terrorize the opposing pitchers and catchers.

If he can add in 85 runs batting atop a not so great Marlins lineup, with a handful of home runs and like 40 RBI, that’s a top 10 season for sure.

6. Matt Chapman has another Top 5 Third Base season

This honestly doesn’t feel like an outrageous take, but he is being seriously slept on in drafts. He is being drafted around pick 125, as the 11th third base eligible player.

Those being drafted ahead of him: Jake Burger, Mark Vientos, Alex Bregman, Jordan Westburg. Four players I expect to finish behind Chapman, even if Vientos and Westburg take a step forward, even with Bregman and Burger in new homes.

Chapman has hit 24 or more home runs in five of his six full big league season (and he hit 10 in the Covid shortened 2020 season). What do those five seasons all have in common? 600 or more plate appearances, a number he has failed to reach only two times (his rookie year, when he was called up mid-season, and 2023, when he had 581 plate appearances). So he is usually pretty rock solid on the health side and locked into 600 or more PA. So he should be good for 25 or more homers in 2025, even in San Francisco.

He’s projected to hit cleanup, right behind Jung Hoo Lee and Willy Adames (with Lamonte Wade currently penciled in as the lead-off hitter). Lee is going to get on base a ton and Adames is coming off of a career year, but has been a more than solid offensive piece for multiple seasons. So he should reverse his RBI and runs splits, with 90 or more RBI this year, and probably closer to 80 runs than the 98 he had last year.

So, 26 or 27 homers, 90ish RBI, 80 runs, what else can he do? Maybe you don’t believe in his 15 stolen bases, especially since he had never stolen more than four in a season and had only 11 in his career coming into the 2024 season. Maybe this will convince you that the 15 weren’t a fluke:

An 84th percentile sprint speed. That’s right there with Anthony Volpe, Jazz Chisholm Jr., CJ Abrams, Nico Hoerner and many others who are projected to steal 20 or more bases next year. Smart decisions on the base paths with well above average speed leads me to believe Chapman will again steal double-digit bases.

Add in a .240 batting average and all of a sudden, you’ve got a top five third baseman and you’re able to grab him 85 picks after the fifth third baseman, Rafael Devers, is drafted.

7. Ivan Herrera, Top 8 Fantasy Catcher

The path is clear for Herrera to make the leap. Willson Contreras, even though he is healthy, will be restricted to only first base and designated hitter. Pedro Pages is not as good as a hitter as Herrera, though they are about equal behind the dish.

And, more importantly, he will be starting Opening Day, batting sixth, in between Alec Burleson and Jordan Walker.

He has an above average hit tool and above average power and a great eye at the plate. He is going to get on base plenty, likely with an OBP north of .350. I don’t think he will hit .300 again, but .265 to .270 is not out of the equation.

Most projection systems have Herrera with 350 or less plate appearances for this season, but I think that number should be closer to 450. Once the Cardinals settle on their man behind the plate, they tend to give them plenty of volume – Contreras never had less than like 485 PA unless he was injured. He hit 10 home runs over 371 PA across Triple-A and the bigs last year, so we know there is a decent amount of power there (and he has hit 17 in a minor league season before). So, if he is given even just 450 plate appearances, I’d project him to hit around 13-15 home runs, with like 50-55 runs, 65ish RBI, call it six stolen bases and a batting average of .265 or higher. Compare that to Connor Wong, who was the 9th highest earner at third base last year: 54-13-52-8-.280. And you can grab Herrera 90 picks after the tenth catcher, JT Realmuto, is being drafted.

8. Josh Naylor falls out of the Top 10 1B

I truly wanted all of my predictions to be positive, but decided one negative prediction isn’t a bad thing.

Naylor was a top five fantasy first baseman in 2024 and had a career year, because it was his first season with more than 600 plate appearances. Yet, not a single projection system has him finishing within the same realm as he did in 2024.

Why is that? Well, for one, he is trading a home ball park that was right around league average for left-handed power hitters the last three seasons for one that is the worst for left-handed power hitters. Not to mention it is tough to consistently hit 30 or more home runs when you hit more balls into the ground than into the air – career 1.4 GB:FB ratio. He had to have a career high 18.6% HR/FB just to get to 31 homers – a top 20 rate in all of baseball and a number he had not come close to in any prior season. Add to that he has right around league average barrel and hard-hit rates and it is tough to expect him to replicate a 30 homer season again.

Two, let’s take a look at his first half versus second half splits (I like to split the halves at the end of June, so it is three full months + a few days in March versus three months + a few days in October sometimes):

Through the end of June: 45-20-61-3-.242-.819 OPS
July 1st to September 30: 39-11-47-3-.245-.730 OPS

He stacked the first half of the season and then fell off in the second half. He had the 6th most RBI at the end of June and only the tied-21st most from July 1st until the end of the year.

His ADP is right around pick 101, but I would take the next four first baseman by ADP over Naylor (and have, where I’ve need a 1B, as I have zero Naylor shares) – Jake Burger, Vinnie Pasquantino, Christian Walker and Triston Casas.

9. Rookie of the Year, MVP, Cy Young, Manager of the Year, Comeback Player of the Year, Reliever of the Year

American League

MVP: Bobby Witt Jr. The Yankees are a worse team, both on offense and on the mound. The loss of Gerrit Cole for the year and Luis Gil for awhile will hurt. Cody Bellinger is not Juan Soto. Aaron Judge takes enough of a step back for the best player on the AL Central Division winning team (spoiler alert) to win the first of what should be many.
Cy Young: If you skimmed over this list for some reason, you might miss Bold Prediction #2, where I named Cole Ragans my AL Cy Young.
Rookie of the Year: You already know who I’ve predicted here: Cam Smith. See Bold Prediction #1.
Manager of the Year: Matt Quatraro, Kansas City Royals. Pretty simple really: they win their first AL Central Division title since 2015, have the best hitter and best pitcher in the American League and are the American League favorites to make the World Series. They win more than 90 times for only the second time since 1990.
Comeback Player of the Year: Felix Bautista, Baltimore Orioles Reliever. He bounces back from missing the entirety of the 2024 season due to Tommy John surgery and ends the 2025 season as one of the best relievers in all of baseball (again).
Reliever of the Year: Bautista, Orioles. Oh, did I fail to mention this above? He’s my RP1, Baltimore will use him more often than they’ve said this off-season. They have a division to win.

National League

MVP: Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers. I will pick Ohtani to win the league MVP every year until he gives me a reason not to pick him. Even if he just starts like 21 games, he’ll probably be one of the best offensive producers in the league and could earn the MVP on that production alone.
Cy Young: Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates. Yeah, I am going chalk in the National League. The best pitcher in baseball and the best player on the planet are in the NL, so why not pick them? This is just the first of many for Skenes, who should win three to five before his career is over (maybe even more, health willing).
Rookie of the Year: AJ Smith-Shawver, Atlanta Braves. The NL East Division winners may not have the MVP or Cy Young, but they will have the RoY and the Reliever of the Year (see further down for that). There is essentially going to be a battle for the fifth spot in the Braves rotation until Spencer Strider returns to the rotation, between Smith-Shawver and Grant Holmes. I think AJSS grabs the spot by the horns and runs with it. He walks less batters, strikes out more and has spent parts of the past two seasons in the big leagues, so he is ready to be a full time contributor at the big league level. I don’t think Roki Sasaki pitches enough innings (not due to injuries, just due to the Dodgers innings management, skipping starts, running a six man rotation from time to time, etc.) and I think Dylan Crews is a year away from putting his power and speed together, so he falls short of the award as well.
Manager of the Year: Terry Francona, Cincinnati Reds. From fourth in the division to second and a wild card spot. The Cardinals are not a good team and the Cubs did not improve enough to fight off a fun, young, high scoring team with a real staff ace and some very good arms in the wings. Elly De La Cruz finishes in the top three for MVP, Hunter Greene gets down ballot votes for Cy Young and 2024 first round pick Chase Burns has an electric cup of tea in September and provides some October fireworks.
Comeback Player of the Year: Matt McLain, Cincinnati Reds. I am one of the highest people on McLain outside the city of Cincinnati. I believe he can be the #1 fantasy second baseman and I think his return from missing all of 2024 and how well the Reds will perform overall in 2025 are the reason he wins the award. He has a real outside shot at a 25/25 season with solid counting stats hitting in the upper third of what should be a pretty high scoring lineup.
Reliever of the Year: Raisel Iglesias, Atlanta Braves. The best closer for the best team in the NL East (and second best team in the NL). No Dodgers reliever saves more than 23 games, whereas Iglesias saves nearly 40 with a sub-1.00 WHIP, an ERA under 2.25 and 10.5 K/9.

10. Division, League and World Series Predictions

American League

East: Boston Red Sox
Central: Kansas City Royals
West: Houston Astros
Wild Cards: Baltimore Orioles, Seattle Mariners, Detroit Tigers

Wild Card Series: Houston over Baltimore (2-0), Seattle over Detroit (2-1)
Divisional Series: Houston over Boston (3-1), Kansas City over Seattle (3-0)
ALCS: Kansas City over Houston (4-3)

National League

East: Atlanta Braves
Central: Milwaukee Brewers
West: Los Angeles Dodgers
Wild Cards: New York Mets, Cincinnati Reds, Philadelphia Phillies

Wild Card Series: Milwaukee over Philadelphia (2-1), New York over Cincinnati (2-1)
Divisional Series: Los Angeles over Milwaukee (3-1), Atlanta over New York (3-2)
NLCS: Atlanta over Los Angeles (4-3)

WORLD SERIES

Atlanta over Kansas City, Four Games to Two Games

Chris Sale named World Series MVP after winning two games and coming on in relief in Game 6 to shut down a Royals rally.

The regular season starts today, so sit back, grab you some popcorn and peanuts, and let’s PLAY BALL!!

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