2026 Fantasy Baseball Busts – Starting Pitchers

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  • By SportsEthos Staff

    Last Updated on January 26, 2026 3:32 pm by Paul Williamson | Published: January 26, 2026

    Pitching keeps getting more and more expensive it seems.

    Every year more arms get pushed into the first round and there ends up being an arms race in the draft as many of the elite dudes are drafted quicker out of fear of missing out on premium production.

    But which arms that are getting a boost in ADP should be avoided?

    In this piece, we break down multiple names, including  a couple of repeat offenders.

    Larry Vannozzi

    Spencer Schwellenbach – ADP 86.41/P31

    Repeat after me… “Pitcher, fractured elbow and 77 ADP (Jan 16) do NOT mix well.” Don’t get me wrong. I think Schwelly has been excellent in his brief MLB career and I wish he played for my favorite team. However, how can we expect him to bounce right back and be a Top 75-ish player after BREAKING HIS ELBOW? Go ahead and draft him if you want but I’m staying clear of this potential bust (77 ADP on January 16). I might be a buyer in 2027 but not this year at this price.

    Jacob deGrom – ADP – 47.18/P15

    I loved seeing deGrom remain healthy for all of last year.

    After five consecutive abbreviated seasons, I wasn’t counting on seeing him put in a full year. Yet, that’s why I’m calling him a bust this year.

    What is the chance that the 37-year-old stays healthy for the full year again? He finished in the top 35 last year when everything went his way – good health, good control, good velocity, good fortune (.230 BABIP) and somewhat outperforming his expected ERA.

    This year’s 43 ADP (January 16) is essentially calling for deGrom to repeat all of last year’s good fortune. When I use a Top 50 draft pick, I don’t want to be forced to cross my fingers and hope for good luck.

    That’s akin to tap dancing through a minefield. Yes, it could work out but it could also blow up.

    Jeff Clowers

    Bubba Chandler – ADP – 162.94/P68

    It’s tough to evaluate Chandler’s 2025 season.

    Entering the year as one of the favorites to win NL Rookie of the Year honors, he didn’t end up making his MLB debut until the tail-end of August, at which point he split his time between the rotation and the bullpen – hardly the result fantasy managers were hoping for.

    The delay came in part because Chandler faced his first bit of adversity in the minors while at Triple-A, posting a 4.05 ERA at the level after he carried a 1.83 ERA in his first go-around at the level the year prior.

    There was discussion that he may have been asked by team management to focus on specific pitches to help him adjust to MLB hitters but that could also be nothing more than an easy excuse to point to from an outsider’s perspective.

    To Chandler’s credit, he did perform reasonably well once given the opportunity, with a 4.02 ERA over seven games (four starts) that sat a fair bit higher than his xERA (3.60) or FIP (2.66). Of course, some of those numbers came during relief appearances so a slight dip should be expected when transitioning to the rotation full time.

    His rocky start isn’t enough to detract me from believing in Chandler for the long term but for next year, a 162 ADP is far too high for someone as unproven as he.

    Corbin Burnes – ADP – 586.38/P194

    I understand he’s a well-known name with a lengthy track record of success and that he recently suggested he’d be ready to rejoin the Diamondbacks rotation in mid-July but I’m not buying – either his comments or his draft stock.

    We’ve grown highly accustomed to UCL reconstructions at this point but I think the familiarity has caused us to forget that many recoveries are still not 100% straightforward.

    A simple setback due to minor inflammation can cause a ripple effect that pushes a pitcher’s return back by nearly a month. And let’s not forget that Burnes had seen a dip in his skills even prior to blowing out his elbow.

    Though he sported a sparkly 2.66 ERA, his strikeouts per nine were once again below nine after consistently being in the double digits early in his career and he posted his worst walk-rate since his second season in the league which caused his FIP to come in at 3.83 instead.

    There’s still an above-average pitcher lurking here but even at that late in the draft, I think there’s a good chance you’re returning zero value over the course of 2026 with the selection.

    Nathan Baker

    Tyler Glasnow – ADP – 118.21/P41


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    January 26, 2026, 3:32 pm