The National League East projects to be as competitive as ever in 2025, with three incumbent playoff teams adding to already strong squads in the pursuit of a World Series title. The Marlins expect to be a non-factor, but the young core of the Washington Nationals will excite at the very least, and may even have a chance to surprise some people in the periphery of a wildcard race.

In what figures to be a three horse race, the Phillies, Braves and Mets all find themselves in very different long-term scenarios, with very similar short-term ambitions. In a way, the approach of those three teams this winter has epitomized each of their mindsets going forward, and I’ll do my best to break down what will be a very difficult division to project for the upcoming season.

Phillies

The Phillies blew past expectations to win the division for the first time in over a decade, dominating teams early with one of the best starting pitching staffs in the league, complemented by a sporadically powerful lineup and (debatably) the deepest bullpen in baseball. Cristopher Sanchez established himself as a bona fide major league starter, Alec Bohm and Ranger Suarez enjoyed scalding starts that put them in early discussion for awards, and Kyle Schwarber had his best season in a Phillies uniform. Jeff Hoffman, Matt Strahm, Orion Kerkering and eventually Carlos Estevez provided a consistency in the late innings that very few teams could rival. Add Bryce Harper, Zack Wheeler, Trea Turner and Aaron Nola all providing adequate enough returns on their lucrative contracts, with Wheeler in particular finishing second in Cy Young voting.

For all of these qualities, the inconsistency in the offense began to rear it’s ugly head down the stretch, as Bryson Stott, J.T. Realmuto and Nick Castellanos continued to disappoint, all while Bohm and Edmundo Sosa came back down to earth, and then some.

A comprehensive defeat to the Mets in the division series encapsulated a poor finish from a good team, but the Phillies have surprisingly taken a laissez-faire approach to the off-season thus far.

Trading for Jesus Luzardo provides some much needed pitching depth, hopefully reducing the number of incompetent AAA starters used next season, which was a serious issue in ‘24. Max Kepler is uninspiring, but a badly needed floor-raiser in the outfield. Jordan Romano is a worthwhile gamble, but fans will be disappointed to see the team let Jeff Hoffman go.

Reported attempts to trade Alec Bohm have yielded nothing, and the efforts to dump off the catastrophic Castellanos contract were always likely to fail. Thus, Dave Dombrowski has chosen a path between going all in and trading the farm for someone like Kyle Tucker, without sacrificing next season by trading soon to be free agent Ranger Suarez.

This team will clearly have one of the best starting rotations in baseball, and likely the best in the division. Projection models do not like the bullpen, with most referencing it as the 20th best in the league, which seems harsh, although some regression is to be expected. The lineup is where this team will live or die, with question marks over at least two outfield positions, catcher and two infield positions. Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper and Trea Turner provide the only certain production in 2025. I expect this team to make the playoffs, as will the other two teams in the division, but I’d marginally lean towards predicting Philadelphia to finish in third place in a tight three horse race, with the lack of depth and neglected holes in the lineup coming back to bite them.

Player I Like

Cristopher Sanchez, SP

Sanchez broke out in 2024, throwing 181.2 innings with a 3.32 ERA, and solid peripherals to match. Sitting in the 95th percentile or better in ground ball rate and chase rate, Sanchez was particularly effective in inducing Chase below the strike zone with his sinker-change up combo,
doing an excellent job of missing barrels and getting efficient outs. Steamer projects Sanchez to have a 3.48 ERA with a similar below average strike out rate and a slightly improved but already excellent walk rate.

For his ADP at 188, Sanchez presents excellent value, especially compared to other pitchers in that round; I’d take him over Brandon Pfaadt and Zach Eflin if I’m looking for a starter in this range.

Player I Don’t Like

Bryson Stott, 2B

I don’t dislike Bryson Stott as a player or a fantasy asset, but I really don’t love the value at picking him ~169 ADP. I could easily see a bounce back year of sorts, but the reality is that Stott ranked in the bottom 10th percentile of barrel and hard hit rate, with his only redeeming value being his 32 stolen bases. A .671 OPS won’t cut it there, especially with Nico Hoerner available 15 spots later, who offers a similar value proposition with more track record on the bat.

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