What was expected?

The Tigers came in into the season with middling expectations at best after a relatively quiet off- season, trading for Mark Canha while signing five major league deals, all short term. Jack Flaherty ended up paying off the most, pitching like an ace before being traded to the Dodgers at the deadline, with the team is seemingly out of playoff contention. That would’ve been the plan with all of their acquisitions, but only Flaherty and Andrew Chafin fetched any return (of the FA acquisitions), in what felt like yet another lost season in Detroit.

How did it go?

The first of their season went just as many had predicted: bad. On August 4, right after trading whatever they could at the deadline to rebuild for another season, the Tigers sat perilously in fourth place in the American League Central, 10 games back in the wildcard, 15 games back in the division, and holding a 0.2% chance of making the playoffs, according to Fangraphs. Then, everything changed.

The Tigers would go 33-16 the rest of the way to shock the world and make the playoffs in one of the most improbable runs in MLB history. A sweep of the always formidable Astros in Houston allowed fans to dream, before their season came to an end after a hard fought five game series against the Guardians, where they got beat with their best on the mound.

Their best was of course Cy Young award winner Tarik Skubal, who stayed healthy to establish himself as one of the best pitchers baseball. The Tigers got as far as they did with great pitching, but outside of Skubal, it was “pitching chaos” in the words of manager AJ Hinch. Tyler
Holton, Brant Hurter, Will Vest, Jason Foley, Brenan Hanifee, Sean Gunther, Keider Montero, Beau Briske, Ty Madden, Joey Wentz and Kenta Maeda all provided significant innings as starters, openers, long relievers, set up men, closers, you name it, it happened. If that sounds like a lot of names, it’s because it is, yet ironically, none of them held real fantasy value, mainly due to the lack of predictability of usage.

Fantasy Stud?

This could only be one player, and Tarik Skubal has earned every accolade that’s come his way. Skubal ranked in the 90th percentile or higher in walk rate, strikeout rate, whiff rate, and all four major era-adjacent metrics, having the best season of any pitcher in baseball. 192 innings was by far a career high, as was his league leading 228 strikeouts. With an electric five pitch mix and some of the best command in the league, Skubal should be treated as the blue chip ace that he is in 2025 drafts; I’d take him before any other starter in the league.

Fantasy Dud?

Javier Báez offered nothing yet again, and is becoming a more glaringly poor use of long-term funds by the day, but Spencer Torkelson came nowhere near justifying his 115 ADP. After a 31 home run season in 2023, I can see why people were bullish on Torkelson, especially given the prospect pedigree and a strong second half, but his ‘23 progressions in quality of contact got drastically worse, as did the strikeouts.

It wasn’t a swing decision issue, but perhaps a swing issue itself; the Tigers sent Torkelson down in June, and kept him there for well over a month to try and fix his swing. He showed flashes of improvement in August, but slowly regressed to his prior form, and as much as it feels odd to discount a first overall draft pick who’s still only 25, Torkelson shouldn’t be picked in the top 200 next season with this low of a floor.

Fantasy Surprise?

Some fantasy owners tried to find value in Colt Keith and Kerry Carpenter, both of them improved in the second half of the season (particularly Carpenter, who posted a 167 wRC+ since August 4 in a platoon role), but few would’ve expected Parker Meadows to become the force that he was down the stretch and in the fantasy playoffs.

Meadows held an ADP of 250, and struggled early enough that he became sparsely owned atone point, but raked for the past two months of the season, posting a 135 wRC+ with 27 runs an a 2.0 fWAR since that oh so significant August 4 date, including a game flipping, ninth inning grand slam off Robert Suarez in San Diego; a moment which really started to make Tigers fans believe.

Player Breakdowns

Riley Greene, OF
Riley Greene enjoyed another excellent season of progression, making the All-Star team and establishing himself as one of the better outfielders in the game. He exceeded the value of his 147 ADP, and had another year of all around linear progression, improving everything other than the strikeout rate, which is still not ideal at nearly 27%.

Still, expect Greene to go comfortably in the top 100 next season, with the next potential step being a breakout into stardom in his age 24 season. Keep note of what the Tigers do this off- season though, as his value will increasingly come from walks if they do not protect him in the lineup, which would somewhat limit his ceiling.

Kerry Carpenter, OF/DH

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