If you’re an NBA GM most things revolve around whether you’re buying low and selling high. Some of the decisions are deliberated for years and some decisions are knee-jerk reactions to a development in the marketplace. Along with the NBA Draft we get a two week happening in which 30 competing agendas all play out in concert — half of it rooted in pre-determinism and the other half rooted in random chance.  Some of the GMs are good and some are quite terrible and that’s before you get to the owners!

Still, for all that variance and all the power brokers that plow their way through whatever structure the league attempts to take, everything can be boiled down to getting the most value for your salary cap buck.

What these ranks attempt to do is give GMs (or fans at home) a cheat sheet for the big event. They can target players based on overall rank of the acquisition … independent of how efficiently the player is using salary cap dollars

OR

The efficiency of those dollars spent … also in the context of the overall value they bring (Cash-to-Value Ranks) … After all league minimum players are cheap but outside the best case scenarios they don’t move the needle so we have to always keep overall value at the forefront of our thinking.  

If folks are doing it right they are going to find the players that I lay out at the top of both of those lists.

RECEIPTS

This list has been the home of big-time plays such as Joe Ingles in 2017, Joe Harris and Fred VanVleet in 2018, in 2019 Richaun Holmes was the big win we had seen coming for way too many years. Two years ago Jerami Grant was my top Cash-to-Value rank and predictably blew up. In that season De’Anthony Melton was one of the league’s best players in terms of net rating and it wasn’t a fluke – he was awesome all season lon gand in the postseason … and a casualty of NBA politics in crowded Memphis — since then he has continued to ball out most recently deep into the playoffs with Philly. TWO years ago it was our second ranked cash-to-value wing Max Strus knocking in big shots all season long and in the ECF for literal pennies, and this year he followed that up with another postseason of big plays … alongside other alumni of these ranks, Caleb Martin and Gabe Vincent. Two years ago we had third ranked Frontcourt-Non-Five Jarred Vanderbilt getting loose, which he did, and Isaiah Hartenstein as the 10th ranked cash-to-value big when he didn’t even get picked up in free agency (and 1st overall last year). Since then he has established himself as capable of playing bigger playoff minutes. Last year we pick-pocketed Malik Monk, correctly hit the gas on Jalen Brunson, and speaking of third ranked wing target Caleb Martin we boat raced everybody there. We also had Kyle Anderson, Bruce Brown and Lonnie Walker right after him.

ABOUT THE CASH–TO–VALUE RANKS

The purpose of the Cash-to-Value ranks is to give decision-makers around the league, fans and anybody in the basketball space an idea of how to extract the most value possible in each of their free agent decisions.

We typically exclude elite players from the top slot in Cash-to-Value ranks even if they’re dominant even if an argument can be made on their behalf (they’re still ranked that way in the overall ranks). This year there is nobody who actually fits that description, a very down year in terms of high-end free agency.

Pile up enough of these winners and you can have the cash and credibility to go after the top tier players in the league.

So who has the top spot this year?

Some years it’s easy to pick just a single player and in others I might take two players, but this year some of the best values just had extremely visible high end performances in the playoffs. There is also a cluster of great targets that don’t have quite the high end trajectory — paired with league minimum costs — that we typically feature in this space. So I’m going to go with a pretty broad group here for targets that I think best represent these ranks.

The top values this year who rose to the top of the SportsEthos Cash-to-Value Ranks are Austin Reaves, Bruce Brown, Jalen McDaniels and Nickeil Alexander-Walker.

If we had to pick one player who truly fits the spirit of these ranks, trying to get something very big for a very low cost that’s going to be Alexander-Walker, who is also a restricted free agent.

If I had to add another player in this spirit, who won’t be available because he has a team option, it would be Kessler Edwards, but let’s just set that one aside since Monte McNair isn’t stupid.

Enough talking about what we were going to be talking about so let’s get into it!

GROUND RULES

CASH-TO-VALUE RANKS

The concept is this — you’re looking to get the best players at the cheapest costs. If you do that effectively, you have more money to spend elsewhere.

These ranks lean into that pretty strongly. However, you can’t win in the NBA without getting above average and elite players. The key is spending up to get the right players and for the purpose of these rankings, above average players get plenty of love in their cash-to-value rank, depending on how much they cost of course. As mentioned above the cash value ranks are going to significantly reward players who are both cheap and high-end, most likely giving them the top cash-to-value ranks.

VETERANS VS. UPSIDE

These ranks will give older veterans that can still contribute a bit more value than a pure cash-to-value rank might represent. Teams aren’t lining up to sign them and deals may vary, but in terms of winning it all a quality old vet that’s willing to play at or close to the minimum represents a better play than some younger upside guys.

OVERALL RANK

If you just want to know who the best players are you can sort by the overall rank column. This rank will include some elements of upside, which is unavoidable when assessing overall free agency value. However, short-term production and win-now scenarios are going to show up in the overall ranks.  For example, James Harden is not going to do well in the Cash-to-Value ranks, but in terms of overall rank he’ll have higher marks.

POSITIONAL GROUPINGS AND APPROACH

I did something new last year and went with four different groupings. Ballhandlers and Small Guards, Wings, (newly named) Frontcourt Non-Fives and Bigs.

Ballhandlers are legitimate point guards or can play on the ball (excluding point centers and FNFs that run the point).

Wings are either asked to be outstanding shooters or they’re being asked to lock the perimeter down, or both. They’re valued in their ability to switch and otherwise facilitate offense.

A key difference between Wings and FNFs is that you’re not generally seeing Wings play the four slot. This (FNFs) group is often a rangy 6’8″ to 6’10” being asked to defend 2-4 or 3-5 (well or not is another story). They’ve become much more important as teams employ five-out looks, and elite ballhandlers and offensive initiators have grown in size and versatility.  With so many different player types landing in this group one commonality is that they’re being asked to play 3-5 in tons of small lineups as the league goes small, but they’re just simply not able to command the paint. As has been the case with the league at large, they’re firing away from deep.

Bigs are the aforementioned muscle you need to control the paint and shooting is a bonus.

ELITES

Sometimes we’ll split these guys out into their own category but this year nobody meets the definition.

SYMBOLS AND ANNOTATIONS

A QUICK WORD ON THIS FREE AGENT CLASS

As usual, there are no shortage of targets for smart teams. Give it up for the dumb teams y’all! Without much high-end talent out there, this is a great year to save your powder and just aggressively target players high in the Cash-to-Value ranks. Chances are 1/3 of the league is gonna throw themselves at bad money and your favorite team is going to get better by simply watching them do that, and then after that it’s time to clean up.

HISTORIC RECEIPTS

All the previous years’ ranks for your perusal.

2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017

BALLHANDLERS AND SMALL GUARD

It’s a little bit annoying to me that Austin Reaves is my top cash value play let alone my top overall free agent ballhandler. There are no shortage of reasons for this. I’m going to have to argue against Kyrie Irving and James Harden Truthers one way or another pretty much any season, but to have to do that with even Reaves backers viewing him solely as an intangibles guy is doubly annoying.

And I’d really love to stick Bruce Brown in the top spot if anything because he has paid us off so much throughout the years, but the answer is the answer and the answer here is Reaves. This, even after he just went berserk in the playoffs and the loudest megaphones in the land all collectively said this dude is going to get paid.

And yet… He’s still going to be undervalued … and yet he’s still going to be a better free agent acquisition then either Irving or Harden, who have long and distinguished histories of being deep sea anchors for their teams. You can get all the way TFO with your talk that these two are somehow unassailable as top acquisitions in their class. They’re simply not.

If you need to go to the on court stuff just go to the defense and that’s all you need to see. But if you want to get into the toxicity or the inefficiency as they bend the offense inflexibly, be my guest.

Reaves is Billy Hoyle reincarnate, just without the massive blind spot in between the ears. The shooting stroke and efficiency of motion, in addition to at minimum average athleticism, paired with a lethal mindset, and now with way more than enough film and results for anything to be questionable… The only thing we’re looking at here is the market’s unwillingness to evaluate him at his real level of play.

Whether you want to go with stereotypes, the slow and low path to where he got to now, anything you want to assign to playing well in the shadows next to LeBron Inc., or simply looking like a less excitable version of Mr. Hoyle… there are a lot of reasons the market won’t take all the way off. Of course, there are going to be people willing to pay and I think he’s gonna get a pretty good number… But at least half of the interested parties are going to be scared that they are buying into a fluke or that it’s not marketable either upstairs or to the fans… They’re simply not going to be able to pay what he is worth.

And when you throw everything together that he does well he profiles like a top 75 player in this league. I’m not saying if he’s your third best player that you’re winning an NBA championship, but in that role he wouldn’t be the reason that you lost it. And the same holds true for Bruce Brown, which should be obvious after the playoffs. Donte DiVincenzo gets a higher rank than Irving and Harden because he is making winning plays deeper in the playoffs than those guys are and impacting the team he plays for in relative proportion at a much lower cost to the cap. He’s also younger…  and securing a serviceable playoff piece on the cheap like this is how you afford higher-end players, driving the value here.

I think it’s been tough to play in Chicago the past few years if your name’s not Zach Lavine, Nikola Vucevic, DeMar DeRozan or two seasons ago Lonzo Ball. Coby White has slowly cleaned up the young player stuff and at 23 years old with his combination of polish and lower height athleticism, somebody has a shot here to possibly grab a future third or fourth best player on the cheap. Check out the cluster of Theo Pinson, Jaylen Nowell, Ayo Dosunmu and Dennis Smith Jr. if you’re looking for bargain pop.

WINGS

The top three guys in the OVERALL wing ranks are only interesting to me in that I’m fading Khris Middleton against perceived value and was tempted to put Herb Jones over Jerami Grant.

The next two names on the list are way more interesting. Whereas one could go for Middleton at 31 years old after not being able to get back out on the floor last year, I’d be very tempted to trust my gut with Kessler Edwards and Nickeil Alexander-Walker over him.

Ultimately Edwards needs to round out his offensive game to keep within distance of Middleton. But if it clicks at all he has high-end, two-way upside given his athleticism … and promising overall grasp of the game at his age and experience level. This is a clear-cut case of a player that if they had a bigger name they’d have jumped to the front of the line really quick.

Sacramento slow-played him and should’ve gone to him more in the playoffs, but at least they’re the ones that actually found the diamond in the rough. Things are still clogged there so it could be another low and slow season but for all the talk about splashy wing and perimeter defender acquisitions they’re already sitting on the guy they need to develop.

NAW really showed out in the playoffs and some aggressive team should get out there and make a “make me move offer.” Defensively he has great upside and the offensive consistency, shooting and overall feel aren’t light years away… They’re right around the corner.

I’m not sure what Lonnie Walker is going to cost but I wouldn’t be shocked if it’s still less than he’s worth after some highly visible big playoff games. Between Josh Hart, Josh Okogie, Walker, Damion Lee, and even further down the list with Keita Bates-Diop, Terry Taylor, Oshae Brissett and Malik Beasley… You can really go bargain-hunting and come back with serviceable value.

FRONTCOURT NON-FIVES

NBA GMs have some opportunity here but it’s a pretty mixed bag for the group as a whole. The only upside shot I really like is Jalen McDaniels, who landed with Daryl Morey and got hidden a little bit last year down the stretch … after also being hidden in Charlotte purgatory. I can pick a part at his game but he has shot well from the foul line and had flashes of other shooting success, with plenty of athleticism to create the upside potential.

And then at the top of this group’s overall ranks there are a quartet of quality players with Draymond Green and Harrison Barnes trending downward and Cam Johnson and Kyle Kuzma dueling for the top slot. I really like what Kuzma has done and it was really close between he and Johnson, but Johnson has the elite level shooting that can unlock a lot more value without having to handle the ball so much, and then defensively he has the edge by a decent amount.

There is some decent value hanging out at basement bargain prices, with Kenyon Martin and Ish Wainwright the most interesting names on the list for me. Martin is just 22 years old and has had enough good games to make him an obvious target. And then Wainwright just has a physical profile you don’t see much and I like his chances of putting that to good use.