Will 2022’s Worst Offenses stay bad?

After looking at the offenses that improved greatly in the 2022 season, I was eager to see how last year’s worst offenses project going forward. Being a part of a good offense is always a plus for players, but sometimes the worst teams in the NFL can employ elite fantasy assets. Here I take a look at 2022’s worst offenses and analyze them and their players’ futures. 

1. Houston Texans

Significant Moves:
-Lost WR Brandin Cooks
-Lost G A.J. Cann
-Acquired G Shaq Mason
-Signed RB Devin Singletary
-Signed TE Dalton Schultz
-Signed WR Robert Woods
-Drafted QB C.J. Stroud
-Drafted WR Nathaniel “Tank” Dell
-Drafted C Juice Scruggs

Back in 2021, the Houston Texans were scrambling as they were in the process of moving on from Deshaun Watson and taking a flyer on 2021 3rd-round pick Davis Mills at quarterback. Rex Burkhead led the team with 427 rushing yards and Brandin Cooks was the lone bright spot as he notched 90 catches to go with over 1,000 yards receiving and six touchdowns.

In 2022, the Texans were hopeful that Mills would show some growth from his rookie season, but were left disappointed. General Mills tossed 17 touchdowns and 15 interceptions for the inept Houston offense. The second-worst passing attack in the league last year led Mills to a QB21 finish, and was never really in fantasy consideration, at least for 1QB leagues.

The ground game for the Texans featured one of the lone bright spots coming out of Houston last season. Despite boasting the ground game that also ranked second-worst in the NFL, Dameon Pierce was a top-20 fantasy option at the running back position last season on a PPG basis. Pierce missed a handful of games last season, but illustrated great talent as a hard-nosed back.

Texans pass-catchers were not in high demand last season. Brandin Cooks had a weird season between him dealing with injury, demanding a trade, not getting it, losing his team captain status and coming back and capping the season with a week 18 WR7 finish with 100 yards and a touchdown. Elsewhere, Nico Collins, Chris Moore, and Jordan Akins each had middling seasons, but Collins flashed the most promise in his time on the field.

The Houston offensive line was an okay unit last season, but they project to be a much improved one going into 2023. Laremy Tunsil is the highlight of this squad, being one of the better tackles in the NFL and the highest-paid offensive lineman in the league. The interior was poor last season, but trading for former Buccaneers G Shaq Mason and drafting C Juice Scruggs in round two of this year’s draft should mean there are better days ahead for this o-line.

Lovie Smith’s only season as Texans head coach went about as well as anyone could have expected from him given the circumstances. However, the 3-13-1 finish for Houston led to his termination at the season’s conclusion. Now first-time head coach DeMeco Ryans and offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik look to steer the Texans in the right direction.

The Year Ahead

While the 2023 off-season has given us much to be excited about for the future of the Houston Texans, I’m not so sure that this season is the year to invest a lot into their offense. Second-overall pick C.J. Stroud is tasked with turning around a Houston offense that has struggled since moving on from Deshaun Watson. Stroud could be a name to keep an eye on later in the season, but I’m not looking his way in redraft formats this year.

Texans pass-catchers are a group that I’m considering more and more as the season gets closer. I like dart throws on young WRs Nico Collins and John Metchie late in drafts. New Texans tight end Dalton Schultz is one of my favorite targets at the position. He finished as a top-11 tight end each of the last three seasons, including a TE3 finish in 2021. He could be in line for another such finish if he can become one of Stroud’s top targets.

The Texans’ backfield is a murky one going into 2023. Pierce is coming off an effective rookie campaign, but the team went out and signed former Bills RB Devin Singletary. At their price points, I like Singletary more. I haven’t had an opportunity to draft Pierce once this off-season because others simply like him more than I do. Singletary averages 4.7 yards per carry in his career, and I think he could eat into Pierce’s role more than we’d like.

Related: Half-PPR 2023-24 RB Tier Rankings

Projecting Beyond

Looking into dynasty football, this is where Texans players become much more palatable. C.J. Stroud is an excellent target to look for in both 1QB and 2QB/Superflex drafts this off-season. Not much more to say, more likely than not, he will be one of the best young signal callers in the NFL for the foreseeable future. I’ll note that I don’t think Davis Mills will have much of an NFL career going forward and can be ignored in drafts.

Young, high-upside WRs Nico Collins, John Metchie and Nathaniel “Tank” Dell are great dart throws and hopefully one of them ends up as Stroud’s top target of the future. The best bet is Collins for now, but I love the prospect of adding Metchie or Dell if you miss out on Collins or don’t want to pay the steep draft capital. TE Dalton Schultz is also another fine, younger option at tight end, and I love adding him as a later option at the position. 

Out of the backfield, I like Pierce a lot as a dynasty piece. If he can be a part of a young Texans core that gets better with time, he could have a string of great fantasy seasons, but the uncertainties land him in the mid-to-late RB2 range for me. Singletary will likely never see workhorse duties for the remainder of his career, and his lack of upside makes him less desirable in this format. However, if you already have upside at RB, you can snag him at a great discount.

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