What was expected?

The Kansas City Royals lost a team-record 106 games in 2023 and missed the playoffs for the eighth straight season. To say expectations were not high entering the 2024 season would be an understatement. They did not make a big splash in free agency and spend a billion dollars like the Dodgers or make a blockbuster trade to make the team better like the Yankees.

What they did do was enhance their rotation with the signing of two veteran right-handed starting pitchers in Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha. Bullpen additions came in in the form of lefty Will Smith and righty Nick Anderson, neither of which made much of an impact in 2024.

With a young and talented lineup, save for Salvador Perez, they added three veteran hitters to their homegrown talent in outfielder Hunter Renfroe and infielder/outfielders Garrett Hampson and Adam Frazier, neither were fantasy relevant in 2024.

How did it go?

Who knew the Royals would have the American League MVP runner up in Bobby Witt Jr., the best young player in the game, and the American League runner up in the Cy Young voting in Seth Lugo. With Lugo leading a much-improved pitching staff, the Royals ended their playoff drought and went 86-76, a 30-win improvement over the 2023 season. This team was just the second MLB team to earn a playoff berth after losing 100 or more games the previous season (excluding the dreaded Covid season of 2020) since the 2017 Minnesota Twins earned an American League wild-card spot after going 59-103 in 2016).

Behind great starts by Cole Ragans and Lugo, the Royals stymied the powerful Orioles offense, winning the Wild Card series in two straight by scores of 1-0 and 2-1. Next up were the New York Yankees in the Divisional Series and the Royals lost the series 3-1. All four games were close as the Yankees only outscoring the Royals 14-12 through the four games.

The main impetus for the turnaround was on the pitching side. The 2023 pitching staff had the third-worst ERA in 2023 while the 2024 staff had the eighth-best ERA in the majors. The 2024 squad finished with a 3.76 ERA (5.17 in 2023), 1.24 WHIP (1.41), 8.44 K/9 (8.11) and 2.97 BB/9 (3.53). The rotation of Lugo, Wacha, Cole Ragans, Brady Singer and Alec Marsh started 151 of the 162 games, going 58-48 with a 3.48 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 8.74 K/9 and 2.63 BB/9.

Offensively as a team, the 2024 numbers were similar to the 2023 statistics with one major difference. The 2024 slash line of .248/.306/403 was close to the 2023 line of .244/.303/.398. They hit 170 homers in 2024 compared to 163 in 2023. The Royals did score 57 more runs in 2024 (735-676) and that can be attributed to one of the big improvements from 2023, strikeouts. They struck out 1161 times in 2024 compared to 1396 in 2023. More balls in play equals more opportunities to score runs.

Fantasy Stud?

No question here who the star of the Royals is, MVP runner up Bobby Witt Jr.

He had an ADP of three in 2024 drafts and finished third on the Fangraphs player rater. He led the Royals in every standard fantasy category with a .332 average, 125 runs, 32 homers, 109 RBIs and 31 stolen bases. He has increased his total in each of the three seasons in the majors, except for stolen bases when he had 49 in 2023.

The start of Witt Jr.’s career is on a similar trajectory to Mike Trout of the Los Angeles Angels. The table below shows the comparison in their first three full seasons. Note: Trout’s first three seasons were his age 20-22 season while Witt’s are his age 22-24 seasons.

Looking at these two, Trout had more power, hit for a better average and walked a lot more than Witt Jr., but Witt is striking out less and showing more speed. Hopefully, his career path will continue to mirror that of Trout’s, minus the injury history that has derailed Trout’s career the last few years.

Fantasy Dud?

Going based on ADP and where they finished in the Fangraphs player rater, the dud would have to be MJ Melendez. He had an ADP of 290, the fifth Royal hitter selected in 2024 drafts, and finished ranked 493^rd and the 12^th ranked hitter on the Royals.

He was a popular pick, especially in leagues with position eligibility set at 10 games as he appeared in 10 games as a catcher in 2023. A player with catcher/outfield eligibility is a benefit in standard fantasy leagues. But Melendez had a down year compared to his 2023 season. His .206/.273/.400 slash line in 2024 was down from his .235/.316/.398 line of 2023. The 25-year-old lefthanded hitter was unusable against lefties in 2024, batting .164 with four RBIs and three extra-base hits (no homers) in 74 plate appearances.

While he is on the right side of the platoon, his inability to hit lefties and losing catcher eligibility will see his ADP drop in 2025 drafts. He is only fantasy worthy in 2025 in AL only leagues as of now, or a 30-40 round pick in a 50-round draft-and-hold.

Fantasy Surprise?

I could have gone with one of three pitchers with this pick as Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha and Brady Singer all outperformed their ADP by more than 200 spots. But I must go with the Cy Young Award runner-up in Lugo here. With an ADP of 260 and the 68^th starting pitcher selected, nobody expected Lugo to finish in the top-20 in four of the five standard fantasy categories.

Pitching in his age 34 season, he tied for the league lead in starts with 33, tied for third in wins with 16, was second in innings pitched with 206.2, 10^th in ERA at 3.00, 14^th in WHIP at 1.09 and recorded 191 strikeouts, tied for 20^th in the majors. Not too bad for a pitcher who became a starter in San Diego last year after spending the previous five seasons in the bullpen.

Player Breakdowns:

Hitters

Bobby Witt, Jr.

Witt Jr. signed an 11-year, $288 million dollar contract before the start of the 2024 season and it looks like he will earn every penny of it. Is there anything this guy cannot do? He led MLB in batting average (.332), was sixth in at bats (636), third in runs (125), 16^th in homers (32), sixth in RBIs (109) and 17^th in stolen bases (31). One of the most exciting players in the game today, he would have won his first MVP award in 2024 had it not been for Aaron Judge. Witt Jr., was a unanimous runner-up, receiving all 30 second-place votes.

The Royals had the worst leadoff hitters in baseball in 2024, combining for a measly .270 on base percentage. A better leadoff hitter would give Witt even more opportunities to drive in runs in 2025.The Royals have seemingly added a new leadoff man in a trade with the Reds, acquiring second baseman Jonathan India on November 22.

His hard-hit rate of 48.1 % and barrel rate of 14.3% are well above the league average of 38.7% and 7.8%, respectively. If there is one “flaw” in Witt Jr.’s game, it would be his walk rate. He walked eight percent of the time in 2024, just below the league average of 8.2%.

Witt is a no-brainer top-five pick in 2025 drafts and will go as the top pick in some drafts.

Salvador Perez

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