What was expected?

Coming into the season, it seemed like business as usual for the Rays. Sure, they didn’t spend a ton of money on splashy off-season free agent pickups and they didn’t trade for a superstar, like an unnamed AL East opponent did, but the Rays are used to those limitations and are used to winning lots of games, their own way. The rotation was beat up coming into the year, with Shane McClanahan out for the year after Tommy John surgery, Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen recovering from their own TJ surgeries, Taj Bradley expected to miss a month and not a lot of reinforcements coming up from the minor leagues, but that has never stopped them. The keys to winning baseball in Tampa has perennially been great pitching and great defense, but the offense hit a switch last season, finishing fourth in the American League in home runs (230) and second in the AL  in stolen bases (160), while also having a team OPS of 0.776 (second in the AL). With the rotation thin on high-end arms and thin on proven pitching, they would need to lean on their offense and deep bullpen to secure victories. A spot in the playoffs was expected, since they had made the playoffs the previous five seasons, and a winning record was required, as they had six consecutive seasons with winning records coming into the year.

How did it go?

It did not go according to plan, at all. They had their first losing season since 2017 (80-82) and missed the playoffs for the first time since 2018. They scored the second fewest runs in the AL (604; ahead of only the White Sox and 31 behind the Angels), hit the second fewest home runs (147, again better only than he White Sox), led the AL in stolen bases (178) and had the second-worst OPS (0.669, ahead of, you guessed it, the White Sox). Their starting pitching was better than expected, though only one pitcher (Zack Littell) would throw more than 140 innings on the season, and their bullpen was absolute dynamite, as expected. Junior Caminero made his big league debut and although he was not tearing the cover off the ball, he still performed well and proved that there is hope on the horizon. Randy Arozarena was pretty terrible throughout the year and was traded away to the Mariners in July; Isaac Paredes was traded to the Cubs for a package around Christopher Morel, who was absolutely terrible in Tampa; they traded two of their “best” SP, in Aaron Civale and Zach Eflin, to the Brewers and Orioles, respectively, and the offense sputtered along because of injuries to “stars” like Brandon and Josh Lowe. Even the wonderful Pete Fairbanks, closer extraordinaire struggled, as his strikeout rate dropped by five full punchouts per nine innings pitched and his ERA ballooned to 3.57. It was a terrible season that could have been so much worse.

Fantasy Stud?

There was no real fantasy stud for the Rays, so let’s just go with who was the best fantasy player on the team: Ryan Pepiot. He came over in a December 2023 trade with the Los Angeles Dodgers and was good pretty much from the get go. He threw 130 innings, a career season high, with an 8-8 record, 9.83 K/9, 3.32 BB/9, 3.60 ERA, 4.05 xFIP and a 1.15 WHIP. He missed two weeks of action in May and then another month from the middle of July through the middle of August, but still tossed the second most innings in the Rays rotation. He allowed a ton of fly balls, 45.6%, compared to ground balls, 35.3%, but was able to limit home runs by limiting hard-hits (37.1% rate) and standing 74.3% of all baserunners. He limited contact (73.1%, 7th lowest in the AL amongst SP who tossed 130 or more innings), had a decent chase rate (29.1%, 28th best in the AL) and a very good swinging strike rate (12.9%, tied for 8th in the AL).

Fantasy Dud?

Lots of choices here, but I am going to go with the guy who was drafted as a top 25 OF and finished the season just inside of the top 95 OF, Mr. Josh Lowe. Lowe was coming off of a wonderful sophomore season, where he hit 20 home runs, stole 32 bases, had a 0.292 batting average, an 0.835 OPS and a 130 wRC+…all in just 501 plate appearances. Well, Lowe struggled to stay healthy in 2024, seeing only 387 total plate appearances, but even when he was healthy, he wasn’t that great. His strikeout rate rose seven full points (from 24.8% to 31.8%), his power dropped off a cliff (his ISO dropped 58 points, from 0.208 to 0.150), but he did walk a little bit more (8.3% compared to 6.2%) and he stole 25 bases (fifth amongst AL OF). His wRC+ dropped from 130 to 98 and his OPS settled in under 0.700. Besides the traded Randy Arozarena, expectations for Lowe were probably higher than any other Rays player.

Fantasy Surprise?

Edwin Uceta had to be the biggest surprise for the Rays, just another elite bullpen arm with the chops to close games. Uceta spent most of his minor league career as a starter, bouncing around a few organizations after spending six seasons in the Dodgers organization, putting on a Diamondbacks, Mets, Cubs, Mets (a second time) and then finally a Rays jersey. The Dodgers decided to try him out as a reliever in his final year in the organization and, though he made it to the majors that year, he struggled with his command and control, walking far too many batters to be an effective reliever. Cue to early May, 2024, where he made two appearances for the Rays, striking out five, walking two and allowing only one hit over four innings. He would get sent back down to the minor leagues until June 25th, where he would be called back up to the Majors and where he would spend the rest of the season. From that day until the end of the season, Uceta pitched 37.2 innings, striking out 52, walking only six, allowing only two home runs and eight total runs (seven earned). He grabbed two wins, seven holds and five saves along the way, ending the season as the closer. In that time frame, amongst RP who pitched at least 30 innings, he ranked 10th in K/9, 6th in BB/9, tied-11th in HR rate, tied-5th in ERA and 3rd in xFIP.

Player Breakdowns:

Hitters

Jose Caballero – 2B/3B/SS

I know, I know, but it is a bit dreary out here in Tampa, as there weren’t many standout bats, but Caballero was the best of a mainly terrible bunch. He led the AL in steals, which isn’t that surprising to those who paid attention to how he performed in Seattle in 2023, though his OBP fell tremendously, from 0.343 to 0.283 and he only had 90 hits that left a stealable base open, but speed is the name of his game. The nine home runs were a nice little bonus for someone who had hit only 11 over the previous three seasons, but the 0.227 BA was an absolute killer, as were the low counting stats. Power will never really be part of Caballero’s game, so I would be surprised if he could replicate his nine home runs again in the future, especially with an average exit velocity of just 83.7 MPH, a barrel rate of 5.1% and a hard-hit rate of 25.2%. He chases too many pitches (34.5%), has a high swinging strike rate for a speedster (13.3%) and doesn’t make a ton of contact (72.8%). Hopefully good health to a variety of players and a full season of Junior Caminero in 2025 means we will be talking about much better players next year.

Yandy Diaz – 1B

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