I'm with you Dan. Seeking upside at that point if the draft can put a team over the top. I don't see a down side to that strategy. What is the worst that can happen? I end up dropping the 121st pick for a hit FA. The best is I spent my 121st pick and get a guy that gets me 3 0r 4 rounds of value

Precisely. And Zain and I always talk on Wednesdays about the power of the rotating roster slot. Pick up a guy who's chugging at a top-50 clip for 2 weeks, then send his ass out to pasture.

I vote (b), although I will admit I have a soft spot for Robin Lopez

Haha, why Tama, why???

Cheap source of blocks, not bad ft's, and some first-round level mascot shenanigans too

I believe you refer to the land of "What have you done for me lately " as the scrap heap.

I am always amazed at the number of players that shuffle through my line up over the course of a season

Wish he'd play a few more mins/game, though

I would say I try to mix between A and B. Getting a guy late in the draft who I know can hold a consistent value of around 100 is important to rounding out a solid team. If you take too many risks then you are reliant upon good waiver moves, and I try to save as many moves as possible for the playoffs (my league has 50 moves we can use anytime for the entire season, so I save them for the playoff run).

I'd have to say B, because at that point in the draft, I want a guy with some hype (deserved or not) that I can package into a trade. Someone will always be obsessed with youth/potential.

^ When I saw your username and your first line of "I'd have to say B..", I figured it would follow with "'Nuff said" haha

Anyway.. I agree with tybraun. Although, to be more specific, if we're talking standard 12 team leagues, I would try to stick to 'A' during picks 80-100, and right after that, I would switch to 'B'. I know you have past data that proves your philosophy Dan, however, was that only for last year's rankings?

Despite that though, I'm still inclined to believe picks 80-100 has a higher shot because they tend to have more logical reasons to beat their expected rank. Things such as team composition, changes, team depth, their track history, etc are things I feel still apply in a reasonable way for those picks.

For example, here's an excerpt from the Hoop Ball slow mock draft of my team around picks 80-100.

"RD7- Pick 76, Markieff Morris, SF/PF
RD8- Pick 93, T.J. Warren, SF
RD9- Pick 100, Pau Gasol, C"

(Sidenote: IMO, I drafted Morris too early for my own taste)
- I believe Morris will very likely be giving me his price right here of Top 75-80 as he finished 74 last year. Also, the Wizards barely changed during the off-season. I felt like this is a no-brainer. My only regret is that I might've wanted to wait til pick 93 for him, as there was a chance he might've still been on the board.

- TJ Warren finished 66 last year. He's likely gonna be the 3rd option on the team as well. Although Josh Jackson is their new, fresh asset.. I don't think TJ Warren's gonna get overthrown for it, especially with the showing he had last year. I feel like I got both value + upside on this pick.

- Pau Gasol, similar to TJ Warren, feels like value + upside. Gasol finished 48, 13, 18, and 75 from 2013-2017, respectively. I know he's old, and that does bring some risk such as amount of games played (he played 64 games last year), but there's also not as many players to compete with him in minutes. Dewayne Dedmon gone, David Lee gone. So put all these reasons together, and I think at 100, this feels fantastic to me.

Then for my rank 100+ picks, I did your method, which I agree with:

RD10- Pick 117, Tyler Johnson, PG/SG
RD11- Pick 124, Dion Waiters, SG/SF
RD12- Pick 141, Ersan Ilyasova SF/PF
RD13- Pick 148, Kelly Olynyk, C

All picks to me that have high upside, but could be a complete bust, except for Olynyk, who I just felt will likely be a bust but just wanted to make a gamble on. I don't expect to hold on to him too long anyway, as I'm a waiver wire nut.

Also, speaking of waivers, many players tend to be on the waivers before they end up breaking out during the year. Example of that from last year would be Gary Harris or Jusuf Nurkic. Some to a lesser degree would be Richaun Holmes and Marquese Chriss. So I feel like the opportunity to find breakouts are still there during the year, as long as you're active.

My overall opinion is that 80-100 are still very valuable picks. I personally would delay your method up to pick 100+ and use the 2-3 picks during 80-100 for more proven, but still slightly risky picks. Just my take.

I get the point of the question but your range for scenario A is a bit unrealistic. Basically your saying with pick 80+ you draft players with 100% chance of being 90-100. Range should be like 70-110 or something like that.

I think 80+ is probably a little too early to go all upside. Assuming you go all upside at pick 9, thats potentially 5 players on your roster that are unplayable - very unlikely you will win a competitive league like that. Rounds 11, 12, 13 probably better suited as you already have a 10 man active roster that will give you guaranteed top 100 production. My experience is if you have 10 top 100 players then you will be contending.

Also the assumption that you can get a player that's top 50 for 2 weeks all season long is a little unrealistic. In a public random yahoo league it's entirely possible, but in any competitive league when you have 12 active managers, it's a lot harder.

Can only go off my experience, but I'm in a pretty active league and there's always 4-5 managers that go all upside, so they always have at least 2 players they can drop at any second. All of them follow in real time, so say Terrence Ross goes for 20 in a half, he will be picked up straight away.

"50 on the line" -- I agree with your notes to a certain degree. I was posing a hypothetical, so clearly nothing is a 100% situation.

Still, a top-100 guy can be pretty bland and unhelpful. I'd rather use my first 5 picks relatively safely. Picks 6, 7 and MAYBE 8 with a little risk, and 9 through 13/14 go bonkers. Might even go a little funny with 8, too. All I need is 2-3 of those last 5-6 picks to pan out and I've got a beastly top-9/10 with a few roster spots to play with.

Completely agree with your drafting principles. I never draft rounds 1 or 2 on potential, which means I won't be going jokic before mid 2nd and why I like KAT and curry top 3.

I'm probably just a little more risk adverse than you. I just find 9 a little too early to go bonkers because if you miss on all 5 picks, I find its too hard to recover the rest of the season - you basically have to hit on every FA to compete.

Also even when you 'hit' and turn a 9th-13th rounder into a 4th/5th rounder, your not going to be that in front of the entire league as other teams would have inevitably 'hit' as well.

Personally I like to draft a team I'm confident gets me to top 4, then rely on my FA/trade skills the rest of the way.

I just find guys like Jon Leuer so nauseating. They're top-100 reliably but they're just not helping. They're taking up valuable space for me to go FULL TILT and make a bunch of mad-cap moves.

I love going bananas on the waiver wire, so I also kinda like missing on 1-2 draft picks to have that rotation slot open.