I talked about mine on a series of 5 podcasts, but here is what I had written up as my pod notes way back in July/August. The lines have moved, but figured people might enjoy seeing it:

We went 19-11 last year, never touting for a moment, because this stuff is free. When it’s free and it’s winning, it’s fun for everyone.
So, year two. Let’s rock. I will break down every NBA team's mark, give my take, and list a confidence number from 1 to 5 (with 10 being highest).

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Atlanta Hawks OVER 23.5 (Confidence: 2)

The Hawks tried to get worse. It’s weird, then, that I don’t think they succeeded. They shipped off Dennis Schroder, who, for all his fantasy warts, was the team’s best player. They shipped out Mike Muscala, a versatile big man who played decent minutes when Dedmon or Collins needed to miss time. They brought in injury-prone Jeremy Lin to help calm the seas while a fresh-faced rookie (Trae Young) runs the point. All of these notes point to Atlanta winning fewer games than last year, a season that saw an already-terrible Hawks team win just 24 games and hit our Under-25.5 wager. But a few factors are working the other side. First, it’s really, really hard to win fewer than 24 games. Many teams tried, and only Phoenix and Memphis got there last season. Second, tanking is less valuable; the three worst teams all have the same odds at a number one pick, so there should be less jockeying to be the absolute worst. And third, the improvement of John Collins and Taurean Prince should help offset some of the Schroder loss. I don’t think Atlanta piles up wins by any stretch, but getting back to 24 seems quite doable, and 25 is within reach in a weakened East.

Boston Celtics UNDER 57.5 (2)

Last year, I was incredibly confident in the Boston Under, and it very nearly crashed and burned. Hell, if not for the injuries to both superstars, it was almost a guaranteed over. We’re going to ride that storyline to another Under wager for this season. Boston was the darling of the first half last year, going on a crazy run to open the season and leveling off quite a bit as the year moved along. The return of Gordon Hayward has everyone googly-eyed, and the Celtics, rightfully, get a ton of publicity about having a stash of young talent and years of window to capitalize. With LeBron leaving the East, Boston is often talked about as the heir apparent (an ugly overlook of Toronto, if you ask me), and the crown has been placed before a game’s been played. I’m a firm believer in a few key principles, and just like with the Hawks above, who really have to try to lose more than 58 games, it’s awfully hard to win that number. Only three teams hit that mark last year – the Rockets, Warriors, and Raptors, all of whom had pretty insane point differentials and magical offensive success. Boston is going to be good – absolutely – but I have them pegged pretty close to where they were last season when you factor in adjustment periods and maybe the desire to NOT run themselves into the ground in the regular season, which clearly took its toll this last year.

Brooklyn Nets OVER 32.5 (1)

Last year I nailed the Nets, saying I had some small confidence they’d hit 27 or 28 wins. They had 28. So 33 would seem like a huge jump for a team that hasn’t been anywhere near good in half a decade, right? Yeah, sorta. I have my lowest confidence tag on this one, because I literally believe the Nets will go 33-49. Like, they’ll clear that total on the last day of the season. And it’s not because I don’t like what they’ve done from a personnel standpoint. I rather do, actually! I just think expecting more than five additional wins is a lot to ask. But here’s why I do lean ever so slightly to the Over – Spencer Dinwiddie became the clear leader in the backcourt, and I think you see the Nets lean on him even more this year. D’Angelo Russell is going to get more time off the ball, which is good because his decision-making while handling the rock is pretty bad. Jarrett Allen will get better … so will Rondae H. Jefferson … so will the aforementioned Dinwiddie, and so will Caris LeVert. Joe Harris should see some more playing time this year, bringing his nice efficiency to the table. But more than all of that, I like that the Nets rounded out the veteran side of the roster with proven effort guys like Ed Davis and Shabazz Napier. Those are great adds that will help the younger guys along. Allen Crabbe and DeMarre Carroll can continue their current roles, but they got help. No, I don’t think Kenneth Faried has anything to do with this outcome. Again, a weaker East and an improving Nets roster mean a few more wins, but feel free to quote me when I say I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see them finish within a half-win of that 32.5 number. Here’s hoping it’s just above.

Charlotte Hornets OVER 35.5 (1)

Last year I took the Under for another win, and my logic was basically that Dwight Howard was going to ruin the budding chemistry. He did. So this year, it would seem to reason that with Dwight gone, I should go hard to the Over … and I WOULD, except I’m absolutely petrified this team sells off everybody at the deadline. So, instead, I’m ever-so-gently pushing the Over with the hope that most of the roster lasts the season. If Kemba gets moved, though, just understand that this one is cooked. No need for a long write-up, here. The Hornets can go back to spacing the floor, the young guys can play a little, they can go small like everyone else in the NBA, and guys like Batum and Kemba can have some room to operate again. I realize this isn’t a fantasy writeup, but Cody Zeller got a lot more interesting again, didn’t he? The Hornets were actually pretty good when he was healthy two years ago – just remember that when they rattle off a few wins early and feel free to middle this number if it moves … before the players do.

Chicago Bulls OVER 27.5 (3)

This one feels too easy, and I don’t like that. The Bulls hit 27 wins last year in tank mode. If they had played even 25% of their decent guys down the stretch, they’d have eclipsed this mark with relative ease. As it stands, they crushed their Over 22.5 number we had last season. Am I overthinking things? Is this number based on the expectation that most of the betting public was blissfully unaware that Kris Dunn, Zach LaVine, Robin Lopez and Justin Holiday didn’t really play after February? Maybe so. Regardless, we’re not going to over-overthink it, and instead just line up some bodies and see how they look. Dunn, LaVine, Parker, Markkanen, Lopez, Denzel Valentine, Bobby Portis and Holiday. This team has eight players that are bonafide NBA-level guys. Yes, Parker struggles mightily on defense, and he’s not along among those guys, but we’re not talking about needing Chicago to get to 35 wins. We’re talking about 28. If 80% of those guys stay healthy, this feels eminently reachable. And if they actually improve year over year, which guys like Mark and Dunn should, in particular, they should be able to get to 30 wins.

Cleveland Cavaliers OVER 30.5 (4)

I whiffed on last year’s Cavs Over, due in large part to the health of Isaiah Thomas, the midseason roster purge, and Kevin Love’s annual broken hand. This one is easier for me and one of the faster handicapping jobs of the 30. When the best player in the league leaves your team, there is going to be a hard overreaction of betting money, and the oddsmakers are well aware of this fact. LeBron James was rated to be worth about 15 wins, which would pull a 50-win team down to 35. The biggest fear, in my estimation, is that the Cavs would look to blow things up, but the long term deal for Love seems to point decisively in the opposite direction. Dan Gilbert doesn’t want a full rebuild, so they’re going to gun for middling mediocrity and try to slip into the back end of the Eastern playoff picture. I don’t think they’ll get that far, but 33-34 wins should be a decent target for a team that still has George Hill, Larry Nance Jr., J.R. Smith (who, for all his warts, is better than a lot of shooting guards), and, simply put, some veteran leadership.

Dallas Mavericks UNDER 34.5 (0)

Make no mistake, I am not at all confident in this one. This is the first wager on the board I would consider passing on. The Mavs are a team in a weird way. Their margin of defeat last year should have put them closer to 30 wins, but some expert in-game tanking pulled them down to just 24 wins. So, we should really be asking ourselves … “can this club improve by five wins?” … not 11. The answer is a distinct maybe. The addition of DeAndre Jordan gives them a completely new presence in the middle, and I have to believe DJ will be a bit feistier this season than last as he looks for one more big contract. Luka Doncic is a question mark, at least in terms of his immediate impact. Dennis Smith Jr. is also in that category, at least in terms of where he can improve in year two. Dirk is old as dirt. So is Wes Matthews. How does this mish-mash program come together? Do we think Rick Carlisle can pull a rabbit out of his hat? I say, barely, no. The West is so deep and I would venture to guess that a handful of teams will be fighting like hell late, so there aren’t any cheap wins to be had. Look for the Mavs to come in around 33-34 wins, but it’s damn close.

Denver Nuggets OVER 47.5 (2)

Last year our Nuggets Over wager squeaked by, despite the three month absence of Paul Millsap. We’re letting it ride this season because I think, somehow, the Nuggets continue to fly just below the radar in the crowded West. Maybe it was because they ultimately missed the playoffs, but I don’t get the feeling the general populace is aware of how good some of the young pieces are on this club. Nikola Jokic and Gary Harris, in particular, are favorites. Jamal Murray is more of a scoring guard, but his offensive talent is undeniable. Will Barton signed a nice contract, and Isaiah Thomas is looking to prove something, probably off the bench and helping depth. Then, of course, Millsap should play in more games. Would be hard to play in fewer. Roll it all together, and a team that won 46 games should be able to dial it up to two more wins. They know what it will take to make the postseason, and they’re going to gunning from the opening tip. That full season focus is maybe the most relevant part of this handicap, and I saved it for last.

Detroit Pistons UNDER 37.5 (2)

Damn you, Pistons. Cost us a chance to go 20-10 on picks last year with a win on the final day of the regular season, just barely eclipsing that 38.5 mark. So, you may be asking yourself why I would go right back to the well on an Under for a team that went Over last year and had its season win total dropped. It’s a good question. The biggest answer is that I don’t actually think Dwane Casey fixes things in Detroit. He had to be forced into a newer style offense in Toronto, and I believe he may have played a role in holding some of those players back in previous seasons. I don’t really have the cred to push this theory, but hey, it’s out there now. Second, I think Blake Griffin made this team worse. He plays no defense, he’s turned into a weird chucker as he’s grown older, and he never plays more than 75% of a season. Reggie Jackson actually makes the team better, but he has the same health issues. I find this team to be a mis-matched puzzle, and despite the weakening East, I think Detroit takes a step back.

Golden State Warriors OVER 62.5 (1)

That Warriors number last year was nuts. We had one of our lowest confidence wagers going on it, and to be honest, I think we said Over for a few weeks, then Under, and basically just flip-flopped on it because of its insanely high mark. This year, the number has been adjusted down to a still-high-but-slightly-less-bonkers mark of 62.5, and we’re going to go Over. It’s still dicey – injuries could derail this thing in a heartbeat. Rest days will not. The Warriors are good enough to still get to this level even if guys take a game off here and there. What we can’t weather is another 50-game season from Steph Curry. It’s the key reason we like the Warriors to hit this number. Steph is annoyed; he’s annoyed that Kevin Durant gets his postseason love; he’s annoyed that people are calling him injury-prone again; he’s just generally annoyed that he doesn’t get the respect he deserves for changing how the entire NBA plays. I think he’s going to tough it out as much as Kerr will allow this year, and that means anything other than a TRUE injury, he’s in there. I’m thinking we see 75+ games out of Steph, and when he’s on the floor, the Dubs win basically every game. The line is pretty close to accurate, but I think we see them get to 63 or 64. No higher than that, and there’s some very real risk of a few losses at the end of the year keeping them at 61 or 62.

Houston Rockets UNDER 54.5 (2)

I thought chemistry would be an issue last year, but thanks to the play of the Rockets cavalry of 3-and-D guys, that didn’t bear itself out and Houston won a boatload of games. Kudos. Well, this year, the Rockets are down two of their three wing defenders, and added Carmelo Anthony. It’s going to get weird. James Harden and Chris Paul are still going to be outstanding, but they also realize that the reason they didn’t get to the Finals (or at least have a better chance to) was the injury bug. They are going to focus more on rest and health, guys are going to get fewer minutes wherever possible, and they’re not going to be gunning for wins like last year. It’s extremely rare to see a team go Over the number by more than 10% the previous year and have their season total set LOWER the next year without losing any superstars, but this line reflects the loss of Trevor Ariza and Luc Mbah a Moute, and just generally the feeling that Houston overperformed and is due to come back to the mean a bit. Oh, Clint Capela and CP3 each got paid, too, so there may be some ease off the throttle there, as well.

Indiana Pacers UNDER 47.5 (3)

We got the Pacers Over right last year, though we never expected them to rattle off close to 50 wins in the process. It was quite a season. The Victor Oladipo acquisition turned out to be a huge get, and guys like Darren Collison and Bojan Bogdanovic fit perfectly with what the Pacers wanted to do. And right out of the gates, Indiana was playing well, toppling teams with steals and fast break opportunities. This year, the league knows what to expect. I did like Indiana bringing in Tyreke Evans to give their bench a little scoring punch, but his health and ball-dominant ways will resemble, in a lot of manners, how Lance Stephenson took over off the bench … just way, way better. If Evans gets the Pacers an extra win or two this season, the miniature target on their backs costs them just as many, if not more. To me, this wager comes down to whether or not we believe Myles Turner will turn into a superstar, and I don’t, really. Indy hit 48 wins last year catching the league napping, but they just won’t be able to coast this season like last year. Plus, I don’t see Oladipo replicating every aspect of his season – he’s a bonafide stud, but last year was out of control. Pacers take a step back and win closer to 44-45 this year.

LA Clippers OVER 35.5 (3)

The Clippers keep losing star players (if you can call DeAndre Jordan that), and their line keeps dropping. I firmly believe we had the right side on last season’s Over, though we did ultimately lose that wager. If Patrick Beverley lasts even a fraction of the season, they hit the mark easily. We knew Gallo would miss plenty of time, and all the weird rotating pieces moving into and out of the lineup was fairly expected, but Bev … man, we really needed 60+ games out of him. And this season, I think we get there. He’s rested – how could he not be? He’s angry – as usual. He wants to prove something. Yes, the Clips saw a massive downgrade at center, with Marcin Gortat splitting time there, likely with Montrezl Harrell and possibly Boban, but the Clips still have Tobias Harris, one of the most underrated excellent NBAers in the league. They still have Sweet Lou. Maybe Gallo will play a few more games this year. There are pieces on this team, and Steve Ballmer wants nothing to do with tanking. They’re going to play hard as hell, win a bunch of games early in the year, and slowly peter out. I still like them to get into the high 30’s, though.

LA Lakers UNDER 48.5 (2)

There’s a weird narrative in the NBA cyberworld that the Lakers feel like they’re being underrated this year. That just can’t be true. They added freaking LeBron James! I really don’t believe this season’s Lakers club is in the market to try to prove people wrong. The Clippers probably are, since they’re getting set to become the step-child of LA again, but not the Lakers. This is a bit of a rest season for LeBron and he works with the Lakers youngsters to improve their chemistry and up their game. This is a year to try out lineups, work on Lonzo’s shot, help Ingram figure out how to operate in less space, and get Kuzma tons of open looks. It’s not a season to burn the candle and try to win 55 games, get home court and make a championship push. That’s next year with, likely, another high profile target on the club. If LeBron plays in all 82 games and goes whole hog, yes, the Lakers probably get to 50 wins, but the chance of that happening two years in a row is microscopic. LeBron wanted to leave everything in Cleveland last season so no one could push back on a departure. This year he knows he gets a free pass. He’ll miss a few games, the Lakers will fight against the outrageously deep west and probably slip into a middling playoff spot with 47 wins, and Lakers fans, including Kobe stans, will be happy to be relevant again … with an eye on 2019-2020.

Memphis Grizzlies OVER 34.5 (1)

I’ve been struggling with this one, but then I remembered … most casual bettors don’t know the entire story of the Grizzlies 2017-18 season the way that we degenerates do. Memphis was, flat out, awful last year. Mike Conley didn’t really play, and when he did he wasn’t healthy. Chandler Parsons still stinks. The cast of characters with minimal NBA skill and interchangeable names/parts was about as ridiculous as I can remember. Marc Gasol tried, so that was something, but the tank was on from about game 15, and Memphis lost games admirably. They didn’t lose quite as cleverly as the Mavericks, but they benched guys early, sat Tyreke for plenty of games where he probably could have played, and losses and losses. And then, to go from a 22 win team to a total of almost 13 wins more … I mean, this is pretty wild. But then, we dig deeper. Conley should be ready to go for a full season, and he carried them two seasons back. Gasol is getting older, but as a second option he should be fine. They brought in Garrett Temple for pennies on the dollar and signed Kyle Anderson, a sneaky-strong defensive player with an interesting skill set. All those weirdos they had to deploy as starters move to the bench this year, where they actually belong. Jaren Jackson Jr. has a ton of hype and he’ll play some minutes, perhaps sparingly while he learns the game, but it’ll be enough to excite some fans at the very least. This is a club looking to bounce back, led by veterans who clearly don’t want to be in the bottom three again. I think, like the Clippers, the Grizzlies show some spunk, especially early, and roll up 35-36 wins.

Miami Heat UNDER 41.5 (2)

This is an illogical move, by all accounts. Miami went over their 43.5 mark last year, a win for us, and I talked at length about how I loved the coaching and Miami getting overlooked at times. And now this year, in a weakened East, I believe they lose a few more games? Yep. And it’s subtraction by addition and subtraction by subtraction. Allow me to explain. The Heat had some serious minutes carved out last season with injuries to Dion Waiters, Hassan Whiteside, Rodney McGruder, and to a lesser degree, Justice Winslow. I’m firmly in the camp that at least 2 – maybe 3 – of those injuries actually made Miami a better team on the court. Waiters, in particular, is an unmitigated disaster. He’s a chucker on a team that doesn’t need someone chucking. The Heat need a superstar. They need a more skilled passer at point guard. They need to get younger most places … or if not younger in age, younger in the way their limbs work. The Heat need more Josh Richardson and more Kelly Olynyk, and less Tyler Johnson, less Dion Waiters, less Wade (though we don’t know his availability yet). The list goes on. And contrary to what most say, I think they need more Whiteside at decent strength. I’m just not sure he ever gets back to that athleticism we saw upon his return from overseas. And if they trade him, who knows what they bring back. I’m less of a Goran Dragic fan than most, I think James Johnson is getting old, and Miami is just a slow team without the type of offensive skill you need to pile up wins in the modern NBA. Under.

Milwaukee Bucks OVER 46.5 (2)

Milwaukee’s horrific defense cost them dearly last year. Their youth and lack of focus on a game-to-game basis cost them last season, as well. They had, simply put, a bad year. And still won 44 games. We nailed our Under from last season, but I believe this is the year the Bucks begin to finally make some strides. You can’t have the glut of talent that this team has and not move forward. The Bucks added pieces that fit beautifully in veterans Brook Lopez and Ersan Ilyasova – big men that can space the floor. Lopez is also a rim protector and box-out artist, and Ilyasova is a surprisingly decent offensive rebounder. The Bucks addressed their deficiencies from the perimeter, added some size to help deal with rebounding issues, and they still have a ridiculous core of Giannis, Middleton and Bledsoe. They also can boast a probably-healthy Malcolm Brogdon and a new coaching staff. We also saw Milwaukee play hard in the postseason, and if someone can get them to give that sort of effort in even 75% of the regular season games, they should finally bust through and get up nearer to that 50-win plateau.

Minnesota Timberwolves UNDER 44.5 (1)

So, clearly I wrote this number down wrong and I felt pretty good about Under 47.5. But 44.5 is a much stiffer proposition. The club absolutely has the talent to get to this number, but as I said in my writeup when I had the number wrong, I do believe health becomes a key player in Minnesota’s success, or lack thereof, this year. Does Jimmy Butler even push hard, knowing he’s likely headed out of town? Would the Wolves consider moving one of their key pieces to try to get a jumpstart on a rebuild before dudes leave town? These types of questions make Minnesota a very hard team to trust. Still, if I felt pretty strongly about an Under when the total was three wins higher (in my mind), then I can’t feel nearly as strongly about it here, and I might even consider going with the Over. Truth be told, this number is much more accurate. I felt like we had about 2-3 wins of value at the wrong number (what a buffoon I am), and my expectation of a Wolves team sitting in the 45-win territory puts this line right on the mark. I still think it stays Under, but by a whisker.
I don’t think the injuries that beset Minnesota last year were a fluke. In fact, I think they get worse. Last season it was Jimmy Butler that went down in what could very easily be a preview of how the rest of his career might go, thanks in no small part to playing for Thibs almost every year. I happen to think we finally see KAT miss some time. Maybe Wiggins, too, though I’m not sure how much that actually hurts the team. Bottom line, the Wolves go as Butler goes. Jimmy is the engine. He’s the desire. He’s the guy that gets everyone else to knuckle up around him and actually try on a nightly basis. He’s their Draymond. If Butler is out, the whole thing comes apart. We’ve seen KAT’s lack of whatever that highest gear is – that’s not changing. It’s just who he is, and that’s fine if you have someone else that can grind it out and lead. But the Thibs act is tired. He needs to go back to being a defensive coach before he ruins a handful more NBA careers. It’s amazing Taj Gibson is still standing. Bottom line: I don’t like the fit of many of these guys (Wiggins and Teague stand out as weird puzzle pieces), and I don’t like the prospect of most of the team making it to 70 games. I will say, though, I like the Anthony Tolliver signing. That was nice. And if by some Satanic wish the Wolves key players all get into the mid-70’s in games played, this bet will indeed go down the toilet.

New Orleans Pelicans UNDER 45.5 (1)

I got last year’s number wrong, though it wasn’t for the wrong reasons. I didn’t think Boogie and AD would work long term (it didn’t), but I thought maybe there was a strange iteration of Rajon Rondo that might not screw everything up (there was). But Boogie went down, AD cranked it up to 11, and the Pels really impressed down the stretch and into the playoffs. But Boogie is gone now; so is Rondo. Jrue Holiday is coming off a career year, which usually means regression, and this Pels team has the stench of two-years-ago Pelicans at this summer juncture. I don’t much care for Elfrid Payton, but maybe he’ll prove me wrong. His decision-making wasn’t good enough for the Suns, and that’s a bad sign. That means Jrue ends up as primary ball-handler more than he should, and that means turnovers. It also means that when Anthony Davis misses a game here and there, which he will, it’s almost an automatic “L” on the scorecard. Now, don’t get me wrong – I think Davis plays in most games as he has the last two seasons. I believe the injury stuff is overblown based on some over-mitt style treatment during his first few years in the league. Davis is actually pretty tough, and if they could just bring his magical shoe laces courtside so he didn’t have to run off to the locker room every quarter that would do a lot to stop my heart palpitations. But even 6-7 missed games means the difference between a 50-win team and a 44/45 win team, which is what the Pelicans will be this year. I do think they snag the final playoff spot from Minnesota, though. Book it.

New York Knicks UNDER 29.5 (1)

Do I have to change my write-up from last year? I think I called them a train wreck, and without Porzingis for a large chunk of the year (and with a half-speed Porzingis even when he comes back) there is seemingly no way this club can get to 30 wins. Okay, fine, there’s NOT no way, but there are very few paths to it. There’s plenty of fantasy value, so that’s good for us for other reasons, but there isn’t that one guy that can put them over the top. Knicks are going to get off to an horrendous start, and at a certain point it becomes more important to settle into that bottom three. The semi-tank, if we want to try to name it under the new rules. They’re still trying to move veterans, on top of everything else. Remember friends, Kanter opted into a lucrative deal. The Knicks would have been fine without his salary. They want to unload Courtney Lee for picks, if possible, and then just turn the thing over to the THREE point guards on the roster (Mudiay, Ntilikina, Burke). Of course, with all this pace and lack of structure, guys like THJ could thrive. Maybe Hezonja, too. But we can talk fantasy somewhere else.

Oklahoma City Thunder OVER 50.5 (3)

Same line as last season … 50.5. Last year we took the Under and won easily. This year we’ll take the Over and win easily. I have to admit, I was hoping we’d see the line come down a win or two after last season’s embarrassing end in the playoffs and somewhat lackluster stretches during the regular season. ‘Twas not to be. Oddsmakers know that the superstar power of this club will keep money coming in on the Over, and that shame is basically all that’s keeping me from making this a top wager. I swear, if this line was at 48.5, I’d be going nuts. As it stands, I still really like it. Of course, everything in the NBA comes down to health, but Westbrook and George seem pretty safe these days (famous last words, right?). Beyond those two cogs, I really like what the Thunder have done. They moved on from Melo, which clearly wasn’t working, and surrounded their two superstars with mostly defensive whiz-kids, tough guys and fast bodies that can rebound, defend, and hopefully finish. I love Jerami Grant getting a bigger role. I don’t much care for Dennis Schroder in a vacuum but he’ll be able-bodied and a way better backup than Fat RayRay. Hell, there might be times where the offense runs more smoothly with Dennis setting things up. There’s still an issue with shooting, but with Andre Roberson healthy, the Thunder should be able to put together some pretty impressive defensive units, and going hard every night means extra wins when other teams simply aren’t. This is another team looking to prove something, and that’s a nice bonus factor on top of the actual on-court notes.

Orlando Magic UNDER 31.5 (1)

The Magic got worse year over year, and we nailed the Under last season easily. This line worries me a tad – am I missing something? The Magic unloading Elfrid Payton at the deadline last year for scrap metal, added a rookie that needs a ton of time to develop, and really didn’t change the core much from a team that won just 25 games last year. Aaron Gordon is still trying to figure out consistency, health, efficiency, and just generally how to do more good on the floor. Vucevic is constantly a trade candidate, and he’s the best player they’ve got left, so they could conceivably get worse again. I’m just not seeing it, guys. This is a team that made it to 25 wins after a strong start to the year. Something doesn’t add up. I’m risking an overthink-job here, but I believe we have to err on the side of youth, tank, and possible trades and say they’re still in a rebuild and not really looking to make that leap yet. We’ll ride with the narrative of a team that needs more young talent before it needs wins, and assume they stay low.

Philadelphia 76ers UNDER 54.5 (3)

Okay, so the Sixers impressed last year. Joel Embiid made it through the season in one piece, mostly; Ben Simmons looks awesome; and some shrewd deadline waived-player pickups helped shore up a pretty flimsy, young bench. But the Sixers, in their infinite beast-mastering of the league over the final month and a half, still got to only 52 wins. Not that 52 is anything to shake a stick at, but another 3-game jump is a pretty big deal for a team that mostly found its way to tread water through a tumultuous burner-heavy offseason. Wilson Chandler was a nice pickup, and the main pieces are still there with Redick and RoCo joining the two young stars, but as we saw in the postseason, the hype train got tested and came up a bit short. I also firmly believe it’s hard to make two big leaps in successive years. There tends to be a regression in the second year, either because of players settling into a rhythm after an emotional season, or because other teams know what you’re doing and gameplan more effectively. Yes, the East got weaker, but I’m not sure LeBron leaving town adds three wins to a team that was already beating most of its opponents. It’s easy to go from 31 wins to 34 wins. It’s much harder to wiggle an extra few victories out of just 30 losses. This mark is too high for a team that became super-public and a club we made a boatload of cash fading through its inflated postseason lines. Let’s roll with the value side.

Phoenix Suns UNDER 29.5 (1)

Here’s the thing – someone has to lose in the Western Conference. Not every team can win 30 games. Phoenix is finally starting to do some things a little closer to right (taking a flier on Payton wasn’t a bad idea … neither is overpaying Trevor Ariza on a short deal while they have some cash to throw around). This club knew they weren’t going to be able to attract any star talent coming off an NBA-worst 21-win season, so they have to figure out a way to mostly grow from within. And with apologies to the smooth stroke of Devin Booker’s jumper, he, and everyone else on this team, has yet to prove they can figure out how to play winning basketball. I’ll put most of it on the coaching staff and front office, so no one can call me out on the players themselves. There’s some talent there, for sure, but they have a losing set-up. They play losing lineups with bad sets, minimal passing, and a chuck-first mentality that just begets more chucking. Ayton could be really good some day, but he’s still a rookie today and didn’t exactly light up summer league, so there could be a learning curve. Booker, Warren, Josh Jackson … the list of chuckers goes on too long for a guy like Ariza to just flip the team’s mentality overnight. I think the Suns make some marginal gains over last year and get to a 27 win campaign. That should be viewed positively with the hope that the young guys begin to learn how to compete on both ends of the floor, make better decisions in the process, and truly begin to grow.

Portland Trailblazers UNDER 41.5 (2)

Funny thing, here. Blazers went way over their 42.5 line from last season – one we nailed easily due to obscene Blazers hatred from the betting public. And then, just as quickly as this club got to 49 wins and a 3-seed, their season total got adjusted down. Damian Lillard is still here; so is C.J. McCollum. But other factors are at play, and the low line is more accurate than folks realize. The losses of Shabazz Napier and Ed Davis will hurt the club, and Jusuf Nurkic is turning out to be good only after the All Star Break. The club is financially hamstrung, so no big changes are coming, and they won a handful of games last year that they probably had no business winning. Credit where credit’s due – they found a way, but some of those close ones are going to tilt the opposite direction, despite Lillard’s heroics, and the Blazers might just find themselves on the outside looking in this year. Of course, Lillard could go nuts and lead them back to 49 wins, but I almost can’t believe that number even looking back on this season. Just look at their division! Wolves, Thunder, Nuggets, Jazz?! Good gravy. Plus, they’ll always put the most miles on their frequent flyer card being the only team in their geographical region.

Sacramento Kings UNDER 25.5 (0)

No Kiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiings Alloooooooooooooooowed. I have no feel for this team. They won 27 games last year and should be close to that bad again this season. Upon closer inspection, they should be worse. They traded away most of their veteran leadership and have a coach that doesn’t like to play young guys (who may have no choice). When young guards lead a team, you’re often in huge trouble, and there just aren’t any gimmies in the Western Conference. As I said, I have no feel for this team, but I lean Under, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Kings post the worst record in the NBA (while maybe being a hair better than the Hawks in overall production).

San Antonio Spurs OVER 43.5 (3)

Terrifyingly low line, but I’m not going to overthink it. The Spurs always find a way to overperform, and they got to 47 wins last year with this roster plus Kyle Anderson. I like SloMo, and I think they’ll miss him, but they have other long dudes (Murray comes to mind) that can play a flexible sort of defense, and added DeMar DeRozan. Guys, this guy is an All Star in the East. Probably not in the West, but we’re talking about a perennial 20+ ppg guy that has worked his efficiency numbers into a nice group. We totally missed this wager last year because Kawhi didn’t play, but that’s not a risk this season. We know what we have – Popovich will find some magic in the mid-range, and San Antonio will work its way back to high 40’s and a playoff spot. Also, by the way, Rudy Gay two years removed from surgery will be stronger, and Jakob Poeltl isn’t a worthless pickup, either.

Toronto Raptors UNDER 54.5 (2)

I actually really like the Raptors chances of coming out of the East this season, but this line leaves very little wiggle room. Last year the Raps ran up the score on teams early and used an obscenely deep bench to build on those leads. I’m just not certain they can surprise clubs with their style of play, and I’m not sure that this giant offseason move isn’t without massive chemistry consequences, at least early in the year. I also find it wonderful that Kyle Lowry finally made it through an entire season last year without a key injury, but I’m not sure he finds that bottle o’ lightning a second time in a row. And that’s what I mean about wiggle room. A few losses early while they find their style of play. A few losses because of injury, and suddenly you can’t get to 55 anymore. And we haven’t even brought up the Kawhi Leonard stuff. Will any of his personal issues get in the way of basketball? Will his quad get back to full strength? Will he need maintenance days? I need wiggle room, friends, and there is none. Plus, Lowry getting older, Ibaka getting older, Valanciunas doing his hot and cold stuff. You get it.

Utah Jazz OVER 48.5 (2)

I love the Jazz – I do. This number is super high, and I still think they handle it. I don’t think they surprised teams last year with a strong showing. They are just really, really good. They’re deep and well-coached, and they changed almost nothing over the offseason. So, let’s put some more development under Donovan Mitchell’s wings and hopefully keep the rest of these jokers healthy. I’m looking at you, Rudy. If Gobert doesn’t miss almost 3 months, the Jazz would have been an easy 50-win team. He anchors them, and everything they do on defense is built around having that level of rim protection. He’s also a bigger part of their offense than casual fans realize – he’s a premier screen-setter, so even when he’s not finishing, his long presence helps open up the play. Health for Ricky Rubio is also of concern. I can’t guarantee either of these cats makes it through 75 games, but I’d take 70 from them and be happy. This line is already higher than I’d hoped, which moves it from what could have been one of my favorite wagers to a fairly standard one (I was hoping for 47.5), but after hitting 48 last year after an abysmal first half, I have to believe they can replicate that success for a longer haul this year.

Washington Wizards UNDER 44.5 (3)

Back to the well for another Under in Washington! This club went way Under last year despite racking up wins while John Wall was out. And now they added … Dwight Howard! My favorite automatic Under guy in the NBA. Dwight will disrupt everything this team tries to do going to the rim. I’m sure John Wall is thrilled to have Gortat out of town, but this locker room is only going to get messier when they realize Dwight won’t set screens for them out on the perimeter and they have to play into his game. Wall’s game has dematerialized into a weird low-efficiency, ultra turnover-prone maddening thing that shined in the playoffs when everybody goes 1-on-1 but ruined his team’s flow. Otto Porter, the guy that should be taking more shots, never will, and now with Dwight he’ll just pushed even farther away from the hoop at both ends. The one guy that probably survives the nonsense is Brad Beal, but I don’t think he’s enough to get this team to the Over. I could write and write about the problems in Washington, but at the end of the day this is a Dwight fade more than anything else. Congrats, Wiz, you get the headache of the year.