Early NBA Betting Analysis for Monday, January 11, 2021

  • By Dan Besbris

    Last Updated on January 11, 2021 1:01 am by Dan Besbris | Published: January 11, 2021

    Hey friends! Dan Besbris, here. I’ve been putting thoughts out on the NBA card on Twitter for weeks, but I also thought it might be worthwhile to bring it all together into one thread for those that miss the storms on social media. If you love it, great. If not, we can abandon ship.

    #Grizzlies @ #Cavaliers (-2.5) (218)

    I’m not sure the Cavs have business laying points to anyone with the way they’re playing offensively right now. This is also a rematch of a Cavs win in Memphis less than a week ago in a thrilling 94-90 game. Lean pretty hard to Memphis.

    #Suns @ #Wizards

    We have no clue who’s playing in this game on the Washington side, but I’d guess the line is going to be pretty robust and largely unbettable. There’s now hope Bradley Beal will be allowed to play, and that usually means I lean Wizards. But in this one, I think Phoenix really wants a 2-1 road trip and I’m afraid.

    #Bucks @ #Magic

    With Giannis not yet ruled in or out and the Magic season teetering in the balance due to ACLs and other fun stuff, this is set to be another beefy line. It’s underdog or nothing for giant road favorite spreads, but in all likelihood this will be a pass. This is, I guess, playoff revenge, but meh.

    #Knicks @ #Hornets (-4.5) (210)

    Knicks are losing the betting love after a pair of home losses but now get the Hornets, a team seemingly beginning to figure things out a bit. Charlotte has won 3 in a row with LaMelo Ball figuring largely into everything turning in the right direction. I think this will be a good game, so it’s hard to convince myself to take Charlotte as a not-tiny favorite, but they have been playing solid defense. I think you have to consider the dog in a well-matched game, but… yeah.

    #76ers @ #Hawks

    Trae Young is dealing with wrist stuff, Ben Simmons is dealing with knee stuff, there’s covid on Philly, and Joel Embiid sounds probable but who knows. The Hawks have, to this point, “gotten up” for their bigger games, but I don’t know how you back that team with Trae looking so out of sorts. As an underdog I can make a better case, so let’s see what we’re getting and make a call from there.

    #Pelicans @ #Mavericks (-4) (214)

    The Mavs got real hot in their last one to somehow avoid falling to the Magic, and now the Jekyll and Hyde Pelicans come to town. I still don’t fully trust Dallas at home, and they’re pretty damn shorthanded. I also don’t like betting against shorthanded teams, though it does tend to catch up with the squad the longer they’re without key parts. Dallas is likely missing Kleber, Richardson, Finney-Smith… the list goes on. At some point, they’ll run out of gas. Do we try to jump ahead of it?

    #Raptors @ #Blazers (-4.5) (231.5)

    This should be a hard-fought game. Raptors are going small lately. Portland is beginning to fit some of the pieces together, slowly but surely. Raptors are on a tough back-to-back after nearly pulling one out of a hat in Golden State. They’re really bad, but somehow I just know the moment I finally fade Toronto they’ll play their best game of the year.

    #Pacers (-4.5) @ #Kings (227)

    We’re entering that point where Sacramento has looked so awful for long enough that they’re starting to catch monster value lines. I’m probably not ballsy enough to bet ’em but at some point they’ll start losing these home dog games but still covering, and that’s when we’ll know the line has overcompensated. But while getting blown out every night, it’s hard to pull the trigger there.

    January 11, 2021, 1:01 am

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