Prior to the start of the 2019-20 NBA season, there was optimism in the Chicago Bulls organization that the team would fight for a playoff spot after a two-year hiatus from postseason basketball. Although these goals were lofty, there were some positive signs to suggest the Bulls would have significant improvement and establish a foundation to build upon for future seasons.

Coach Jim Boylen was headed into his first full season as a head coach after replacing Fred Hoidberg the year before. Otto Porter Jr., who was acquired at the trade deadline last season, would have a full training camp to get acclimated to his role on the Bulls. Wendell Carter Jr. was healthy heading into the season after an injury-plagued rookie campaign. Coby White, the number seven pick in the draft, was going to be brought along slowly but was an exciting, young point guard that could develop behind the serviceable Tomas Satoransky, who was acquired in the offseason.

The roster didn’t look ready for a playoff appearance, but it was at least one that could be competitive in the weaker Eastern Conference. The season so far has fallen far below the Bulls’ expectations and is a disappointment even measured against modest predictions.

The Bulls rank 29th in the NBA on offensive this season and 13th on defense, adding up to a net rating of -3.1. There has been a disconnect between the organization and the players, including recent reports that Lauri Markkanen would want to leave Chicago if there aren’t major changes. Luckily, Markkanen is going to get his wish.

The poor performance throughout the 2019-20 season so far looks to be the impetus for major front office changes for the Bulls. Adrian Wojnarowski reported on April 9th that the Bulls hired Denver’s GM Arturas Karnisovas as the new Executive VP of Basketball Operations. This change is overdue as the Bulls have been mired in mediocrity for most of the past decade. The Bulls’ season so far has been a flop, but there are some important takeaways that can influence the future of this organization.

Zach LaVine Take the Wheel

The brightest star on the roster this year has been Zach LaVine. LaVine has taken a step forward in his sixth season and put together a campaign worthy of an All-Star selection that he would not be granted. LaVine and Bulls fans have a legitimate gripe with this snub. LaVine has posted career highs this season in points, rebounds, steals and 3-pointers made with per-game averages of 25.5/4.8/1.5/3.1. He’s also been able to make this improvement without sacrificing too much of his efficiency.

LaVine is a .447 shooter from the field in his career and a .375 shooter from beyond the arc and took a leap forward last season with shooting percentages of .467/.374. From last season to this season, LaVine’s field goal percentage has dropped slightly to .450, but his three-point shooting has improved to .380. His ability to keep his percentages above average has been admirable, especially considering his field goal attempts per game have increased by 2.0 and his 3-point attempts per game have risen by 3.0 per game from last season. On top of this, LaVine’s posted a career-high in steals per 36 minutes of 1.5. Overall, LaVine’s individual stats have been stellar this season.

However, LaVine’s impact on the court shows there’s still need for improvement on the defensive end. The Bulls are a great team defensively when LaVine is on the bench, boasting a defensive rating of 101.2 in 1,050 minutes this season. When LaVine is on the court that number leaps to 111.2. In addition, opponents have an effective field goal percentage of .558 with LaVine on the court compared to .522 without him. Blowout losses are probably positively impacting the defensive numbers with him off the court, but the difference is enough to take notice.

LaVine offsets this slightly on the offensive side of the court. The Bulls are terrible offensively with LaVine on the bench, shooting just .437 from the field with a true shooting percentage of .526 and an offensive rating of 101.1. The Bulls already have one of the worst offenses in the league, but without LaVine they’re hopeless. The challenge for LaVine is to bring it more on the defensive side of the basketball. As it stands the Bulls have a worse net rating with him on the court, and that can’t continue if LaVine is going to be the leader of this team through their rebuild.

Predictably, LaVine is having the best fantasy season of his career so far. He’s currently ranked 41/26 per game in 9/8-cat leagues, besting his previous career-high ranks of 61/33 from the 2018-19 season. He’s scoring 1.8 more points per game this season, but the bulk of his fantasy improvement has come from his threes and steals. LaVine is hitting 1.2 more threes and swiping 0.5 more steals per game this season. His growth in these three categories has been able to offset a slight dip in his field goal and free throw percentages, dropping from .467/.832 last season to .450/.802 this season.

He is crushing it and this level of production looks sustainable, except for his steals per game. LaVine is averaging a career-high 1.5 steals per 36 minutes this season, up from 1.0 last season. Unfortunately, the increase looks to have an element of luck involved, with Lavine only tallying 2.1 deflections per 36 minutes this season. To give this perspective, Jayson Tatum, James Johnson and Gary Harris all average the same steals per 36 minutes as LaVine, but average 3.0/3.1/3.0 deflections per 36 minutes respectively. Slight changes in steals per game can have a big impact on fantasy value, so LaVine’s ranking will take a hit if his steals regress back towards his career average.

Fortunately, everything else he is doing looks sustainable and he could even see his shooting improve as the Bulls get better and take some pressure off him on offense. LaVine is a strong bet to stay inside the top-50 in all formats and has third-round upside for this year and beyond.

Coby White

The expectations were low for Coby White headed into the 2019-20 season. Although the number seven overall draft pick had high upside in the long run, he was slated to be the backup point guard to start the season. There were concerns over his NBA-readiness with shooting efficiency and turnovers expected to be issues throughout his rookie campaign. These issues are typical for a rookie point guard and overall, there was excitement surrounding White.

Unfortunately, those concerns were accurate through the first half of this season. White shot 36.5 percent from the field and had a 2.3/1.5 assist to turnover ratio through his first 52 games to go with 10.8 points and 1.8 threes in 24.2 minutes per game. He was outside the top-250 in 9-cat leagues over that stretch, and his rookie season was playing out as most had expected. He was looking like a lost cause for redraft leagues at this point in the season and dynasty GMs were just hoping to see some mild improvements post All-Star break.

White’s performance since then has exceeded everyone’s loftiest expectations. He has vaulted into top-50 value in 9-cat leagues, averaging 24.7 points, 4.3 assists and 3.5 threes while shooting .468 from the field, .407 from three and .895 from the line since the All-Star weekend. He quickly became one of the hottest pickups in fantasy basketball. White has scored in double digits each game since the break, including eight 20-point games and a three-game stretch of 33, 33 and 35 points. White has been flashing his upside on a nightly basis, which has Bulls fans and fantasy owners rejoicing.

White’s recent run has undoubtedly been a fun ride, but it would be irresponsible to put significant stock in the 10-game sample size since the All-Star break. If the Bulls don’t play another game this season, White will be an interesting mystery-box headed into drafts next year.

As mentioned above, he has made a huge leap since the All-Star break. If he’s able to continue his hot-streak he could be worthy of a mid-round draft pick next season. If the 10-game sample size is all we will get, it will be hard to invest in White with a mid-round pick in next year’s fantasy drafts. Many of the Bulls’ key players have been injured or limited throughout White’s hot streak. Zach LaVine and Otto Porter Jr. have only played five out of 10 games, Lauri Markkanen has played four and Wendell Carter Jr. has been active in six games but has only played 24.5 minutes per game. It’s unlikely White would have averaged 19.0 shots per game over this stretch with the Bulls at full strength, and usage is key to his fantasy value.

White doesn’t bring defensive stats and hasn’t shown the ability to rack up big assists, averaging just 2.7 assists per game on the season. The defensive stats are likely to remain low, but if White can improve his assists slightly and keep his shooting percentage up, he will remain a must-own player in standard leagues.

Overall, White’s season so far has us intrigued for his future. For most of the season he was held back by the usual challenges for a rookie point guard in the NBA. Recently, he has been able to break free and give Bulls fans hope that their young point guard is developing into a dynamic scorer at the NBA level. He will likely be given plenty of opportunity moving forward with major front office changes coming..

Arturas Karnisovas and the new GM he hires will want to get an extended look at White over the veteran Satoranksy. The big unknown will be how he will handle the increased responsibility. If he can stay close to his post All-Star break shooting efficiency, he could have middle-round upside in a starting role. The downside is that his shooting falls back to earth and his mild contributions in assists and weak steals numbers won’t be able to offset the negatives in field goal percentage and turnovers.

White has done enough this season to be rightfully considered a building block for the Bulls, and that is the biggest takeaway from his first 62 games.

What Happened to Lauri Markkanen?

Lauri Markkanen’s third NBA season has been a step in the wrong direction. After exceeding expectations in his rookie campaign and progressing in his second season, he hasn’t taken the leap forward many were hoping for this season. Injuries have played a big role, missing almost six weeks from January to March with a stress reaction in his pelvis. That combined with other nagging injuries has prevented Markkanen from gaining momentum and stringing together long stretches of good games. However, it’s difficult to ignore his decline this season, even considering the injuries.

Markkanen’s field goal shooting has dropped each season of his short career, declining from .434 during his rookie year to .430 last year and .425 through this season so far. His 3-point percentage has a similar trajectory, tracking at .362, .361 and .344 over the three seasons, and if you’re thinking there’s positive progression in the counting stats, you’re going to be disappointed.

Markkanen has taken a step back in points and rebounds per game this season, dropping from 18.7/9.0 to 14.7/6.3 this season, falling below his rookie year averages of 15.2/7.5. On top of that his contributions in threes, assists, steals and blocks have remained stagnant.

There was a lot of optimism after Markkanen’s rookie season, and he has shown flashes that he can be a dynamic stretch four in the NBA. Moving forward, one of the immediate priorities for Chicago is to figure out what the plan is for Markkanen.

Markkanen hasn’t been put in the best position to succeed this season. During his best stretch of his sophomore season, he was succeeding with the ball in his hands on the perimeter. His shooting was able to bring his defender away from the basket, and from there Markkanen could beat his man off the dribble for a drive to the basket or get his defender off balance and rise for a solid mid-range jumper, even developing a nice off-the-glass fadeaway.

This season Markkanen has been mostly relegated to a 3-point specialist role. During the 2018-19 season, 41.5 percent of Markkanen’s field goal attempts were from three and 40.9 percent of his field goal attempts were of the catch-and-shoot variety. Those percentages have jumped to 53.6 percent and 51.8 percent this season. His usage rate has also dropped this season from 24.5 to 20.9. Being pulled further away from the basket is also having an impact on his rebounding numbers, dropping 2.7 rebounds per game.

Markkanen hasn’t been used in a way that optimizes his talent this season. If the Bulls plan to keep him around for the future, they’re going to need to change their offense to get the best out of him.

Lessons for the Future

The Bulls’ disappointing season so far emphasizes how far they still are from competing for a title. Coach Jim Boylen has torpedoed the offense and seems to fail to connect with the players. He isn’t likely to be the coach at the start of next season given that a new front office is taking over, which is probably a move for the better in this case.

Getting Boylen out of the picture will likely be a boon to the fantasy value for the Bulls.. Boylen changes his rotations frequently, and the constant shifting of roles makes it difficult for players to get in a rhythm. He is also tough on the younger members of the roster. Bulls fans probably would have liked to see more minutes for Wendell Carter Jr. last season and likely felt the same about Coby White for most of this season. The coaching change seems like an easy decision, but how to maximize the roster’s talent will be a greater challenge.

Karnisovas and his new staff will be eager to identify the core players to build around. Fortunately, the Bulls have talented, young players that fit their timeline. Zach LaVine, Coby White, Lauri Markkanen and Wendell Carter Jr. are all lottery picks under the age of 26. Otto Porter Jr. is due a massive $28M next season before becoming an unrestricted free agent after the 2021 season. He will be 28 at that time and could be a nice 3-and-D player to keep around on a reasonable contract.

Outside of that, players like Kris Dunn, Daniel Gafford, and Chandler Hutchison may be nice rotation players to keep around, but they aren’t factoring into major decisions on the Bulls’ future. The focus for the new front office will likely be on the four lottery picks mentioned above, since they are by far the most talented players on the roster.

That quartet hasn’t had much playing time together this season, only sharing the court for 126 minutes. The sample size is too small to read into, but they have a net rating of -14.5 and a true shooting percentage of 52.5 for what it’s worth.

However, LaVine, Markkanen and Carter have a solid sample size of 732 minutes together this season to dive into. Their time on the court together has been average. The three-man lineup struggles offensively with an offensive rating of 106.3, which would be bottom-five in the NBA, to go with a true shooting percentage of 55.4 and an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.52. All those numbers add up to a bottom-tier offense in the NBA. They have been great defensively though, posting a defensive rating of 106.0 that would be good for top-10 in the NBA.

The talent is there, and the Bulls need to make changes to get these players clicking on offense.

How to Fit the Pieces Together

Coby White and Otto Porter Jr. will likely play more minutes with the starters moving forward, which will help. Porter is a career 40-percent 3-point shooter and White will provide some extra offensive power as someone who can likely develop into a catch-and-shoot threat and put the ball on the floor to pressure the defense. This potential starting five doesn’t lack shooting, with even WCJ able to step out beyond the arc. What this lineup could struggle with is ball movement.

LaVine and White are score-first players and don’t thrive as facilitators. Porter has never averaged more than 2.1 assists per game and Markkanen’s career-high is 1.5. With this roster the Bulls could benefit from implementing a free-flowing offense like how the Celtics and the Nuggets play.

Carter has good passing talent for a center, and the Bulls may be able to use him more as a creator out of the high post. He won’t be Nikola Jokic, but maybe he can do his best impression of Al Horford on the Celtics. The Bulls could execute dribble hand-offs with WCJ and the dynamic guards while Markkanen could stretch the floor on the weak side and attack closeouts with his speed and ball-handling. His speed and soft hands also make him a great option as a cutter from the weak side. If the first option fails on offense, four of the five players on the court can create for themselves, with Porter being the weak link in this area.

Maybe the Bulls are already thinking about implementing this offensive style given their hire of Karnisovas, who has been with the Nuggets since 2013, serving as the assistant GM before being promoted in 2017. He helped the Nuggets carefully craft their roster to fit the free-flowing style on offense and it would make sense for him to bring that philosophy to Chicago. If he does get the job, he will inherit a roster that is a good fit for him offensively. However, the defensive side of the basketball will likely be more challenging for this roster despite their strong showing on that end this year.

The three-man lineup of Markkanen, Carter and LaVine showed encouraging signs on defense. Adding Porter to the mix will likely help but pairing the combination of LaVine and White in the backcourt is going to present difficulties. Both players struggle defensively, leaving this potential starting five without a player that can contain the elite point guards in the NBA.

The Trail Blazers have perpetually struggled with this issue. They have been able to get by with an average defense most seasons by having athletic wings to cover for Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum on defense. Al-Farouq Aminu, Maurice Harkless and Kent Bazemore are a few examples of the wings that served this role for the Blazers. The Bulls have one of those players in Porter but Markkanen struggles defending on the perimeter. Carter could slide to the four on defense as he’s better on the perimeter. However, in that scenario the Bulls would be sacrificing his rim protection which would be needed with weak defenders at the point of attack.

The fit may be messy, but there’s enough offensive upside with this lineup to cover for a mediocre defense that can hopefully improve collectively. In some ways it’s interesting that Chicago grades well on defense this year given the personnel, but Boylen’s defense-only focus may be covering up for a lot of warts.

Overall, the core talent on the Bulls is promising. The issue with the season so far has been caused by a broken organization and not a lack of talent on the floor. The ownership has taken notice and is correcting course, which should be a positive both on the court and in fantasy.