September 17, 2022, 1:04 pm
Bears (+9.5) at Packers (-450) O/U 42.5
The Packers head back to Lambeau for their season home-opener against a different divisional rival after an absolute clunker against the Vikings in Week 1. While still missing All-Pro left tackle David Bakhtiari and right tackle Elgton Jenkins due to injuries, Green Bay is hopeful their de facto WR1 Allen Lazard will make his season debut after returning to practice on Wednesday. The Packers pass catchers are coming off of a miserable opener lowlighted by rookie Christian Watson’s dropped would-be 75-yard touchdown that sure won’t earn him any seats at the lunch table with Aaron Rodgers. On the other side, the Bears riding high from slipping and sliding their way to a huge upset win at home against the 49ers. They braved the sloshy elements and put up an impressive defensive effort led by LB Roquan Smith. The Packers present another stiff defensive test for Justin Fields and company, who have not won at Lambeau since 2015.
For a running quarterback to only complete eight passes and average 2.5 rushing yards per tote in a game normally wouldn’t get you the W, but that’s exactly what Justin Fields did while putting up a respectable 85.7 QBR. What lacked in volume he made up for in timeliness with unlikely heroes, as two of Fields’ completions were deep touchdown heaves to former Niner Dante Pettis and former Packer Equanimeous St. Brown. Fields has a tall order of an encore against a talented but peeved Packers defense that just got torn up by Kirk Cousins, so he’s not on the QB2 radar yet.
It’s been a good week if you’re a Khalil Herbert truther, as the second-year back averaged 5.0 YPC and punched in a score against the 49ers. He did, however, get out-touched by David Montgomery 20-10. Montgomery gets somewhat of a pass on the putrid 1.5 YPC mark in that game given the weather, and he did have significantly more snaps from scrimmage (65%) and routes run (14) than Herbert (29% & four). Montgomery’s floor still holds firm on the volume, but watch out if that shifts towards Herbert on account of his better efficiency.
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