March 1, 2023, 2:28 pm
Previously I’d started to share my thoughts on a Decision Matrix for selecting between two players. I mean it’s a hard but necessary task to predict the superior fantasy performance between the two. That decision tree begins with the idea that Flags Fly Forever.
I play to win, but winning is hard, so I have to first ask which of the two players will help me win now rather than later. But if I can’t win now, I want to win later. That’s an early question every manager in dynasty or robust keeper leagues needs to answer: What is the window to window?
Let’s move on to stage two of the decision matrix. Ask first #1a, What’s the difference in likely playing time difference between the two players? We can look at the Real-World Value at this point and ask #1b, which of the two players is likely to help their MLB team win now? To help determine that, I look at Team Makeup. To that end ask #1c, where will each player likely hit in the lineup? Or if a pitcher, do they have a spot now?
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Yes, I believe talent wins out, but sometimes it takes a little while for real-world managers and coaches to assess which players have the most talent at any given point in time and therefore deserve a shot to contribute via a regular role.
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