• We always hear about โ€œsilly seasonโ€ and to largely ignore it. After all, why should we care? Some teams clearly arenโ€™t caring about winning and arenโ€™t playing players they intend to have on the roster next season. Is there really anything we can glean from it?

    It would be easy to look at simple counting stats and declare, โ€œSee? Player X has improved! They have more points and assists now!โ€ Not so fast! As teams start shutting down their bigger names, the rest of the players on the roster are forced into higher-usage roles. Someone has to take the shots in a game, someone has to accumulate some points, someone has to get some points and boards in any and every NBA game. Itโ€™s why if you want counting stats late in the season, you target players on tanking teams.

    With that in mind, what can we actually learn from โ€œsilly seasonโ€ players on tanking teams? Weโ€™ve already stated that usage-related stats like points and assists, and to an extent rebounds, can be deceptive. Itโ€™s those less-flashy stats like steals, blocks and three-point rate that can be telltale if a player can maintain a role in the future. Thatโ€™s what weโ€™ll be examining here across all the heavy tanking teams โ€“ what young players are seeing increased roles, and is it believable or not for future seasons? We will be focusing on (mainly) players still on rookie contracts who havenโ€™t received much opportunity before the โ€œsilly seasonโ€ stretch of February onward.

    Two teams we will not cover are the Brooklyn Nets and the Dallas Mavericks. Pretty much all of the players getting increased chances on the Nets are either highly-drafted rookies or journeymen types that are highly unlikely to be on NBA rosters in the future. The rookies are expected to improve over the season and were already seeing minutes throughout the season, so they donโ€™t have as many โ€œsilly seasonโ€ aspects to discuss. The Mavs donโ€™t really have any players that fit the bill described above, so no need to discuss them.

    Enough of a preamble, letโ€™s get to โ€œsilly seasonโ€ fun!

    All stats references are from Basketball Reference unless other stated and current ahead of games on 3/23.

    Memphis Grizzlies

    Taylor Hendricks

    Hendricks possessed a fascinating prospect profile with his steal and block rate paired with three-point shooting. He was a classic โ€œ2-1-1โ€ (two triples, one steal, one block) projection, which is fantasy glue on dynasty squads. His career stuttered early with a muted rookie season and a sophomore season curtailed by a broken right fibula.

    It seems his career could be back on track following a trade from the Jazz to the Grizzlies in year three. What is the cause for the greater intrigue? Itโ€™s easy to point to his improved efficiency and say Hendricks figured things out! Remember though, we are wary of small shooting samples, ESPECIALLY when it pairs together with play in โ€œsilly season.โ€ Instead, why I have some faith in Hendricks is the steal and block rates shining through. A steal rate of 3.0% and a block rate of 3.8% while on the Grizzlies are FUN numbers. And while I am not trusting the percentages on Hendricksโ€™ three-point shot, the attempt rate reaching 8.03 per 100 possessions is also encouraging.

    It seems like Hendricks is getting close to what the original positive draft scout indicated. I would still be worried if Hendricks has done enough to secure a large enough role next season, but at the very least he is showing signs of solid fantasy contributions for the first time in his career. Iโ€™m going to wimp out here and take more of a middle-ground stance.

    Verdict: REAL

    Javon Small

    Small is a rookie guard who profiled as a feisty defender with some passing chops but a questionable shooting profile. It also didnโ€™t help that he measured 6โ€™1โ€ without shoes in the combine. The pathway for players with this profile (small guards who canโ€™t shoot) is narrow, but it can exist in a backup mold.

    A player analog would be Jose Alvarado, who obviously has found success as a player in the NBA. How does Small stack up to him?

    Doesnโ€™t look too dissimilar! Alvarado was quickly one of the leagueโ€™s steals pests while Small is more muted there, but Smallโ€™s shooting already looks more than respectable compared to Alvaradoโ€™s. Otherwise, the thing that would concern me most about Small is that turnover rate of 14.5%, which tilts away from that capable steward territory.

    Overall, I still like what Small brings to the table as a capable backup guard. I know the Grizzliesโ€™ guard room is currently crowded, but we know talent will find its way to some place in the league. In deep dynasty leagues (all dynasty leagues should be deep), I believe Small can be a low-end source of assists, steals, and some triples.

    Verdict: REAL

    Jahmai Mashack

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