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September 7, 2025, 10:14 pm
Last Updated on September 7, 2025 10:14 pm by Anthony Kates | Published: September 7, 2025
This year, we’ve decided to do two streaming articles a week for our premium subscribers. The podcast only provides one day of streamers at a time (a day ahead), whereas the streamer articles will provide three and four day streaming outlooks, giving you a leg up on those non-premium Sports Ethos members (and those in your league who don’t use Sports Ethos at all…even though they should).
The articles will come out every Sunday and every Thursday.Ā You will notice that I have very few single digit percentage rostered players during the early part of the week and that’s because I do not want to assume a ton of risk early in the week. There is zero reason to be desperate before Friday, at the earliest, so there is zero reason to take on any kind of high risk stream. But, if you DO want to have risk on a daily basis with your streams, I will highlight the low-rostered and/or high risk streams that might have a modicum of upside, but I wouldn’t personally start, after I’ve discussed the streams I do recommend.
Monday – September 8 – Probable Starters
Ryan Bergert – KCR – @ CLE – 35%
Bergert has been a decent streaming option for most of the season, though when he was with the Padres, he failed to make it through the fifth inning more often than not. Since being traded at the trade deadline to the Royals, however, he has made six starts and thrown at least five innings in all six starts. He’s allowed more than two runs in a start only twice (out of 13), but has earned only two wins and one quality start in the process. In his six starts as a Royal, he’s thrown 33.1 innings, striking out 31, allowing nine earned runs, four home runs and 11 walks. He’s been a fly ball heavy pitcher, which isn’t much of a detriment in Kaufmann Stadium, where fly balls tend to die, has had some incredible BABIP luck, with a .209 BABIP, and has a strand rate nearly 14 points higher than league average. His statcast numbers are okay, a 7.8% barrel rate, 37.8% hard hit rate and a 90 MPH average exit velocity. He’s generated an 11% swinging strike rate and a 26% chase rate, with a contact rate of 76.4%, right around league average.
The Guardians have fared incredibly poorly at home against right-handed pitching as of late. They have generated just a 63 wRC+, the lowest in the league and the only team under 70, with a .257 wOBA, also the lowest, and a .592 OPS, lowest in the league and tied with the Cardinals. Their ISO, .137, is the ninth lowest, they have the fourth highest strikeout rate, 25.6%, and the lowest walk rate, 6.6%. Batted ball wise, they had the lowest ground ball rate, 32.1%, and the second highest fly ball rate, 47%, with a league average line drive rate, but the ninth lowest HR/FB rate. They had the third lowest hard hit rate, 26.7%, and the ninth lowest soft hit rate, 13.1%, tied with the Rockies. The Guardians had the 22nd most plate appearances against right-handed pitching over the past month, and hit 10 home runs, the 17th most and tied with four other teams. They scored 38 runs, 25th most, generated 20 extra base hits, fourth fewest in the league, an ground into just one double play, tied with Seattle for fewest in the league.
Bergert has done a good job of limiting runs and baserunners, while allowing plenty of fly balls but keeping them in the park, which makes a matchup with the Guardians a soft landing spot. Though they have a decent home run rate, they’ve struggled to get on base, don’t walk and have a poor run scoring rate. Kick off the week with Bergert and his seventh straight start of five innings or more and two earned runs or less.
Emmet Sheehan – LAD – vs COL – 26%
Sheehan’s last five starts have been kind of all over the place: five innings of two runs, five innings of five earned runs, six innings of four earned runs (at Coors), seven innings of shutout baseball and four and two-thirds innings of two earned run ball. What has been consistent are his walks, strikeouts and home runs. He’s essentially allowing a home run per game, while striking out more than a batter per inning and walking 2.60 batters per nine innings pitched. He’s had some BABIP and strand rate luck, with a .246 BABIP and a 78.7% strand rate, but he’s done himself no favors on the statcast front: a 15.5% barrel rate and 49.3% hard hit rate tell me he should have even worse numbers. Though he has allowed more fly balls than ground balls, he has limited hitters to a 67.4% contact rate. He has generated a 16.4% swinging strike rate (elite) and a 39.7% chase rate (Elite with a capital E).
The Rockies offense has been dreadful on the road lately, especially against right-handed pitching. Over the past month, when facing righties on the road, they have a wRC+ of 54, the lowest in the league and the only team under 67. They have a .247 wOBA, a .561 OPS and a .103 ISO – all three the lowest in the league. They have the second worst strikeout rate, 26.5%, and the lowest walk rate in the league, 3.7%, a full two points lower than the Diamondbacks. Batted ball wise, they had the sixth highest ground ball rate, 45.8%, tied with the Marlins, the eighth lowest fly ball rate, 35.6%, and just an 18.5% line drive rate. They had both the tenth lowest hard hit rate and the tenth lowest soft hit rate. They had the second fewest plate appearances against right-handed pitching on the road over the past month and had the second lowest home run rate (home run per plate appearance), the worst run scoring rate (run scored per PA) and ground into five double plays, 22nd most and tied with the Tigers and Diamondbacks.
The last time Sheehan faced the Rockies it was in Coors and they scored four earned runs over six innings against him. He still earned the win and struck out seven batters, but I think this will be an even better outing for him, since the Rockies are so miserable on the road. I’m guessing we’ll be in for an 8-10 strikeout, 6+ inning gem.
High-risk: Luis Morales vs Red Sox, Nabil Crismatt @ Giants, Joey Wentz vs Cubs, Slade Cecconi vs Royals, Chase Dollander @ Dodgers, Tyler Anderson vs Twins, Adam Mazur vs Nationals, Jose Quintana @ Rangers, Simeon Woods-Richardson @ Angels, Miles Mikolas @ Marienrs, Jake Latz vs Brewers, Cade Cavalli @ Marlins
Tuesday – September 9 – Probable Starters
Kyle Bradish – BAL – vs PIT – 35%
Bradish has made only two starts so far this year, after missing most of last year and this year due to Tommy John surgery and the ensuing recovery, but he has looked great in his limited innings. He has faced the Red Sox and the Padres, and thrown 10 innings combined, allowing four earned runs, two home runs, two walks and striking out 15. He’s been limited to under 85 pitches in both games, which is why he only pitched four innings in his second start, but has been great overall. His statcast numbers are okay, a 9.5% barrel rate, but that is just two barrels in 11 events, and a 38.1% hard hit rate, but that was 54.5% in one game and 20% in the other, so these numbers do have to be taken with a bit of a grain of salt. He has been fly ball heavy, which is the complete opposite of how he has been in his career, but has limited batters to a 65.7% contact rate and just a 75.6% zone rate. He has generated a great 14% swinging strike rate, but just a 26.2% chase rate.
The Pirates have been a much better offense over the past month against right-handers on the road than they had been the previous four-plus months. Their wRC+ over the past month, 97, is 28 points higher than their wRC+ against RHP on the road prior, and it is just the 12th lowest in the league at the moment. They had a .310 wOBA and a .702 OPS, both also the 12th lowest. Their .142 ISO is just the sixth lowest, their 24.6% strikeout rate was the 10th highest and their 9.2% walk rate was also the 10th highest. They had the fifth highest ground ball rate, 46.7%, the 10th lowest fly ball rate, 36.1%, and the fifth lowest line drive rate, 17.2%. They had the lowest hard hit rate, 26.2%, making them one of four teams under 30%, and had a 16.1% soft hit rate, the 12th highest and tied with the Reds. The Pirates had the 16th most plate appearances against right-handed pitching on the road over the past month, but hit just nine home runs, the 23rd most, tied with the Orioles and the Royals. They scored 40 runs, 21st most, tied with the Tigers and Cardinals, generated 30 extra base hits, 15th most, tied with the Astros and Angels, and ground into 10 double plays, the fifth most in the league.
Though the Pirates have been better over the past month, their offense is not as good as the Padres nor the Red Sox and Bradish handled both very well. I expect another great game from him, with plenty of strikeouts, limited runs and limited walks. Pick him up and roster him through the rest of your playoffs or until the end of your roto season.
Noah Cameron – KCR – @ Guardians – 42%
Cameron has had a heck of a rookie season for a Royals team that has suffered multiple innings to starting pitchers. Losing Cole Ragans early in the season and then Kris Bubic in July, the Royals have needed some stability in their rotation. And Cameron, along with Michael Wacha for the entire season and Stephen Kolek plus Ryan Bergert since the beginning of August, have been that stability. Cameron strikes out around seven batters per nine innings, does a decent job of limiting walks and home runs and has caught enough luck to keep his runs allowed fairly low. His BABIP is .245, much lower than the league average, and his strand rate of 83.5% is nearly 14 points higher than league average, but he has helped to generate some of that luck with a 5.4% barrel rate, an 87.7 MPH avgEV and a 37.2% hard hit rate. He was a heavy ground ball pitcher in the season but over the past nine weeks or so has been more of a neutral pitcher, with nearly the same amount of ground balls as fly balls. He generates an 11% swinging strike rate and a 26% chase rate, while allowing league average contact and a decent zone contact rate. He’s fairly aggressive, with a 52.3% zone rate and a 57% first pitch strike rate, which have helped him to be productive overall as a rookie.
The Guardians have not performed well over the past month when facing left-handed pitching. They have a 67 wRC+, the third lowest in the league, with the third lowest wOBA, .265 and OPS, .597. They had an ISO of .147, 13th lowest in the league, with a 21.8% strikeout rate, 15th highest and tied with the Marlins, and a 6.9% walk rate, the sixth lowest and tied with the Orioles. They had the tenth highest ground ball rate, 43%, a middle of the pack fly ball rate, 36.9%, and a league average line drive rate. They had both the 12th highest soft hit and hard hit rates, which led to 10 home runs, tied with the Rays, Rangers and Dodgers for 12th most, even though Cleveland had just the 23rd most plate appearance against lefties over the past month. They scored 31 runs, 24th most, produced just 14 extra base hits, second fewest in the league, and ground into five double plays, 14th most and tied with nine other teams.
The Guardians have not had a great offense over the past month against lefties and, in their only matchup against Cameron, struggled to score any runs and only generated four base runners over five innings. Though Cameron has had some recent struggles, he’s been good more often than he’s been bad this year and I believe he will have a successful start against his division foe.
Will Warren – NYY – vs DET – 41%
Warren has been a solid back-of-the-rotation piece for the Yankees this year, helping to mitigate losses in the rotation (Gerrit Cole, Luis Gil, Clarke Schmidt, etc.), while keeping the Yankees clearly in the playoff race. Over his past month plus of starts, he’s been pitching well, throwing 30.1 innings over six starts. Over those starts, he allowed 16 runs (only 10 earned), five home runs and nine walks, striking out 25. He had a .267 BABIP and a 72.7% strand rate, allowed slightly more fly balls than ground balls and some poor statcast numbers: 15.8% barrel rate and 53.7% hard hit rate. He has an above average contact rate, 81.6%, but attack hitters early, with a 61.1% first pitch strike rate, and often, with a 52.7% zone rate. The chase rate and swinging strike rate are lower than you’d like, 21.7% and 7.5%, respectively, but he has found success even while striking out fewer batters per nine innings.
Even though they are a division leading squad and have one of the five best records in all of baseball, the Tigers have really struggled on the road against right-handed pitching, especially lately. Over the past month against righties on the road, they have a 74 wRC+, third lowest in the league and tied with the Angels, making them one of just four teams under 86. They have a .276 wOBA and a .619 OPS, both also the third lowest. Their .108 ISO is the second lowest in the league, their 24.9% strikeout rate is the ninth highest and their 8.5% walk rate is middle of the pack. On the batted ball side, they have hit slightly more ground balls than fly balls, with a barely elevated line drive rate and the lowest HR/FB rate in the league. Both their hard hit rate and soft hit rate settled into the middle of the pack, generating just seven home runs, the second fewest in the league, even though they had 413 plate appearances against righties on the road over the past month, the ninth most in the league. They scored 40 runs, 21st most and tied with the Cardinals and Pirates, they hit 24 extra base hits, fifth fewest, and ground into five double plays, just the 22nd most, tied with the Rockies and Diamondbacks.
Even though Warren has had an up and down year, he is facing a Tigers team that has been in a prolonged slump against right handed pitchers, especially on the road. Though it might be a tough matchup overall, I think Warren will have a productive start for fantasy managers.
High-risk: Mitchell Parker @ Marlins, Adrian Houser @ White Sox, Matthew Liberatore @ Mariners, Carmen Mlodzinski @ Orioles, Zebby Matthews @ Angels, Kyle Hendricks vs Twins, Sawyer Gipson-Long @ Yankees, German Marquez @ Dodgers, Logan Allen vs Royals, Yoendrys Gomez vs Rays, Dustin May @ Athletics, Jeffrey Springs vs Red Sox, Bryce Elder vs Cubs
Wednesday – September 10 – Probable Starters
Tyler Wells – BAL – vs PIT – 3%
Wells will be making just his second start of the year on Wednesday, after missing most of 2024 and 2025 recovering from a right elbow ulnar collateral ligament injury that required an internal brace augmentation. It’s tough to use 2023 numbers to justify 2025 production, so we will just have to use how he looked against the Padres on September 2 instead. He threw five innings, allowing five hits, two earned runs, one home run, no walks and struck out four. He is a career fly ball heavy pitcher and his start was no different, as he allowed 11 fly balls to six ground balls. He was hit hard, with a 50% hard hit rate, and allowed an 18.8% barrel rate, but was able to limit much damage being done. He generated just a 9.4% swinging strike rate, but an eye popping 40.6% chase rate.
The Pirates have been a much better offense over the past month against right-handers on the road than they had been the previous four-plus months. Their wRC+ over the past month, 97, is 28 points higher than their wRC+ against RHP on the road prior, and it is just the 12th lowest in the league at the moment. They had a .310 wOBA and a .702 OPS, both also the 12th lowest. Their .142 ISO is just the sixth lowest, their 24.6% strikeout rate was the 10th highest and their 9.2% walk rate was also the 10th highest. They had the fifth highest ground ball rate, 46.7%, the 10th lowest fly ball rate, 36.1%, and the fifth lowest line drive rate, 17.2%. They had the lowest hard hit rate, 26.2%, making them one of four teams under 30%, and had a 16.1% soft hit rate, the 12th highest and tied with the Reds. The Pirates had the 16th most plate appearances against right-handed pitching on the road over the past month, but hit just nine home runs, the 23rd most, tied with the Orioles and the Royals. They scored 40 runs, 21st most, tied with the Tigers and Cardinals, generated 30 extra base hits, 15th most, tied with the Astros and Angels, and ground into 10 double plays, the fifth most in the league.
Even though the Pirates have performed better over the past month than they had previously against right-handed pitching on the road, they are still a below average offense that struggles against even mediocre pitching. I don’t expect Wells to have an elite outing, but if he can limit the Padres to two runs and walk away fairly unscathed, I trust him to do the same with the Pirates.
High-risk: Mason Barnett vs Red Sox, Eduardo Rodriguez vs Giants, Javier Assad @ Braves, Jonathon Cannon vs Rays, Kyle Freeland @ Dodgers, Jason Alexander @ Blue Jays, Jose Soriano vs Twins, Ryan Weathers vs Nationals, Taj Bradley @ Angels, Carson Seymour vs Diamondbacks, Mitch McGreevy @ Mariners, Jake Irvin @ Marlins, Payton Tolle @ Athletics, Braxton Ashcraft @ Orioles
Thursday – September 11 – Probable Starters
Stephen Kolek – KCR – @ CLE – 14%
Kolek was traded from the Padres to the Royals at the MLB trade deadline, moving from one Triple-A location to another, until the Royals called him up at the end of August. They called him up to make a spot start, to give Noah Cameron some rest and fill in for Michael Wacha while he was on paternity leave. He was then optioned and recalled a week later due to Seth Lugo hitting the injured list and he might be in the rotation for the rest of the year. Which might be a good thing for the Royals, since Kolek has looked very good in his first two starts in a Royals uniform. He’s thrown 13 inning, allowing three earned runs, one walk, no home runs and struck out seven, covering at least six innings in both starts. He’s a ground ball heavy pitcher who doesn’t strike out a ton of batters, but limits walks and home runs. He’s done a good job of limiting quality contact throughout the year, with a 5.4% rate, but tends to allow lots of loud, hard hits, to the tune of a 48.8% hard hit rate this year. He has an elevated contact rate of 83.5%, but he attacks hitters early, with a 62.7% first pitch strike rate, and often, 54% zone rate, forcing them to swing the bat. And since he does not generate a ton of swing and miss, batters tend to make lots of poor quality contact instead.
The Guardians have fared incredibly poorly at home against right-handed pitching as of late. They have generated just a 63 wRC+, the lowest in the league and the only team under 70, with a .257 wOBA, also the lowest, and a .592 OPS, lowest in the league and tied with the Cardinals. Their ISO, .137, is the ninth lowest, they have the fourth highest strikeout rate, 25.6%, and the lowest walk rate, 6.6%. Batted ball wise, they had the lowest ground ball rate, 32.1%, and the second highest fly ball rate, 47%, with a league average line drive rate, but the ninth lowest HR/FB rate. They had the third lowest hard hit rate, 26.7%, and the ninth lowest soft hit rate, 13.1%, tied with the Rockies. The Guardians had the 22nd most plate appearances against right-handed pitching over the past month, and hit 10 home runs, the 17th most and tied with four other teams. They scored 38 runs, 25th most, generated 20 extra base hits, fourth fewest in the league, an ground into just one double play, tied with Seattle for fewest in the league.
Facing a team like the Guardians, who have hit for a bit of power but have overall struggled to score runs and get on base, Kolek should be able to find plenty of success. Facing an aggressive team like the Guardians, he should be able to limit walks and baserunners overall, while keeping the Guardians off the scoreboard and the Royals in a position to win the game.
High-risk: Brad Lord @ Marlins, Cristian Javier @ Blue Jays, McCade Brown @ Padres, Cade Povich vs Pirates, Shane Smith vs Rays, Ian Seymour @ White Sox
Check back on Thursday for Nathan’s streams for Friday, Saturday and Sunday.
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