Early Week Streamers for July 28 – July 31

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  • By Anthony Kates

    Last Updated on July 28, 2025 12:20 am by Anthony Kates | Published: July 27, 2025

    This year, we’ve decided to do two streaming articles a week for our premium subscribers. The podcast only provides one day of streamers at a time (a day ahead), whereas the streamer articles will provide three and four day streaming outlooks, giving you a leg up on those non-premium Sports Ethos members (and those in your league who don’t use Sports Ethos at all…even though they should).

    The articles will come out every Sunday and every Thursday. You will notice that I have very few single digit percentage rostered players during the early part of the week and that’s because I do not want to assume a ton of risk early in the week. There is zero reason to be desperate before Friday, at the earliest, so there is zero reason to take on any kind of high risk stream. But, if you DO want to have risk on a daily basis with your streams, I will highlight the low-rostered and/or high risk streams that might have a modicum of upside, but I wouldn’t personally start, after I’ve discussed the streams I do recommend.

    **All stats for Monday and Tuesday streamers are through Friday’s games, Wednesday’s and Thursday’s are through Monday’s games.**

    Monday – July 28 – Probable Starters

    Slade Cecconi – CLE – vs COL – 20%

    Cecconi has had a mixed bag of a July so far, making four starts and throwing 27.1 innings. He has allowed 12 earned runs (though six of those were in one game against the Athletics, when the Guardians left him in for 8.1 innings), five home runs, six walks and has struck out 18. He had a quality start in three of his four starts and threw six or more innings in all four. He has just a 1.98 BB/9 in July, though a 5.93 K/9 is underwhelming. His statcast data has been a bit sideways, with a 9.5% barrel rate and a 41.7% hard-hit rate, but he has a 45.2% ground ball rate and a 34.5% fly ball rate, which has helped to limit more damage being done. He allows a ton of contact, both overall at 84.9%, and in the zone, 92.7%, though plenty of that stems from the fact he has a 57.7% zone rate and also a 60.2% first-pitch strike rate. He has made 12 starts since May 17 and has allowed more than three earned runs in just two of them and has failed to pitch at least five innings in just two of them as well.

    And he gets to start his week off with one of the teams that has been terrible on the road for the entire season, the Colorado Rockies. They have a 67 wRC+ in the month of June when facing a right-handed pitcher on the road, which is the second lowest and one of only two teams under 70 (and we will talk about the other team when we talk about our next Monday stream).Their .261 wOBA and .601 OPS are also the second lowest, while their 28.8% strikeout rate is the second highest, behind just the Dodgers, and their .124 ISO is the sixth lowest. They hit more ground balls than fly balls and have the fourth lowest hard-hit rate in the league. They have the 21st most plate appearances when facing an RHP on the road in July and have hit seven home runs, tied for 19th most with the Cubs and Mets. They have scored just 19 runs, second fewest and tied with the Dodgers (who have nearly 60 fewer PA), the second fewest extra base hits, 13, also tied with the Dodgers, and they have ground into five double plays, the 11th most and tied with the Angels, Blue Jays and Astros.

    Though Cecconi hasn’t been elite in July, he has been an above-average starter in three of his four starts and has handled better offenses than the Rockies. With how poorly they’ve been producing and the fact they’ve already traded one of their better hitters, I don’t see the Rockies succeeding against Cecconi and the Guardians.

    High-risk: JP Sears vs Mariners, Eduardo Rodriguez @ Tigers, Davis Daniel @ Tigers, Richard Fitts @ Twins, Davis Martin vs Phillies, Bradley Blalock @ Guardians, Rich Hill vs Braves, Davis Daniel @ Royals, Carson Fulmer vs Rangers, Simeon Woods-Richardson vs Red Sox, Frankie Montas @ Padres, Cam Schlittler vs Rays, Andre Pallante vs Marlins, Brad Lord @ Astros

    Tuesday – July 29 – Probable Starters

    Eric Lauer – TOR – @ BAL – 49%

    All three of the lefty streamers for Tuesday are in a “prove it” situation, if you will. None of the offenses they are facing have been extremely poor when facing a left-handed pitcher over the course of July, but none have been that great either.

    Lauer has been pretty phenomenal in the month of July though. He has made four starts, thrown 24 innings, allowed just seven earned runs, tow home runs and two walks, while striking out 26, earning two wins and three quality starts along the way. He has had plenty of batted ball luck, with a .208 BABIP, but a slightly below league average strand rate, 68.2%, hasn’t exactly been of help. He has limited batters to just a 35% hard-hit rate, but a higher than you’d like 8.3% barrel rate. He has been a heavy fly ball pitcher, with a 55% rate in the month of July, but has held batters to just a 6.1% HR/FB rate. Though he has allowed an 80.8% contact rate, he has a sky-high first-pitch strike rate of 77.3% and a 55% zone rate, to go along with a 34% chase rate.

    The Orioles team he is facing has been a middle of the pack offense when facing a LHP in the month of July. They have a 100 wRC+, 13th best, a .310 wOBA, 15th best, a .714 OPS, 16th best, but a .203 ISO that is the sixth highest in the league. They have a middle of the pack strikeout rate but the fourth lowest walk rate, tied with the Marlins. They have the eighth highest ground ball rate, a middle of the pack fly ball rate and the third lowest line-drive rate. They have the fourth highest hard-hit rate and the 12th lowest soft hit rate. They have the 19th most PA when facing a LHP in the month of July, but hit 10 home runs, the sixth most and tied with the Guardians and the Rangers, but have scored just 23 runs, the 13th most and tied with the Twins and the Brewers.

    So here’s the prove it part of the start: he is facing an Orioles squad that has hit for plenty of power, but hasn’t scored runs at a high rate.  Lauer hasn’t allowed a home run this month, barely walks anyone and has limited runs scored. I expect him to have another solid start against the O’s and bump that rostered percentage up to 55-60%.

    Patrick Corbin – TEX – @ LAA – 18%

    Raise your hands if you had “Patrick Corbin having his best season since 2019” on your bingo cards. Nobody? Makes sense. Coming into his age-35 season, not much more could have been expected out of Corbin than to fill in the back of the Rangers rotation. Instead, he has been one of the most productive starters on the roster, filling in for Tyler Mahle as a rock solid #3 starter while he has been out and outproducing the younger guys in the rotation, Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker. He has performed extremely well in July, making four starts, throwing 22.1 innings, allowing just five earned runs, two home runs and five walks while striking out 22. He has had a tremendous amount of luck on the base paths, stranding 90.5% of base runners, but that has been tempered a bit by a higher than league average .311 BABIP. Though he has induced more ground balls than fly balls, he has a very high 27% line drive rate, but just a 9.5% HR/FB rate. He has limited batters to just a 31.7% hard-hit rate and a 4.8% barrel rate in July, with a 30.5% chase rate and an 11% swinging strike rate.

    He is facing an Angels team that is in the upper-half of the league when facing LHP in July, with a 102 wRC+, coming in at 12th best. Their .316 wOBA is the 13th highest and their .717 OPS is 14th highest, while their .143 ISO is 18th and their 26.2% strikeout rate is the sixth highest. They do have the second highest walk rate though, at 10.5%. They have hit the exact same amount of ground balls as fly balls, but have the second highest rate of line drives, at 27.7%. They have the 12th highest hard-hit rate and the eighth lowest soft hit rate, resulting in six home runs, 16th most, tied with five others, even though they have just 191 PA against LHP in July, the ninth fewest in the league. They’ve scored 20 runs, tied with the Yankees and Giants for 18th most, and the seventh fewest extra base hits, 12, tied with the Cardinals, Athletics and Rays.

    So this is a prove it match up for Corbin in that he is facing an Angels team that is hitting plenty of home runs as of late and tons of line drives, while scoring at a higher rate than many teams in the league. Though Corbin has done a good job of limiting home runs, he has allowed tons of line drives, though not a lot of hard hits. If he performs like I expect him to, limiting the Angels (again, since he already threw a solid game against them earlier this month) overall production, then his rostered percentage will surely jump up over 20%.

    Logan Allen – CLE – vs COL – 15%

    Allen has performed fairly decently over the course of the season so far, allowing more than three runs in just six of his 19 starts, while throwing five or more innings in nine consecutive starts. He’s been performing even better in July, raising his strikeout rate to 6.85 K/9, dropping his walk rate to 1.90 BB/9 and his home run rate to 1.14 HR/9. He has made three starts and allowed 10 earned runs, three home runs and five walks, while striking out 18, over 23.2 innings. He has had some batted ball luck, with a .231 BABIP, but has had just a league average strand rate of 70.7%. He has allowed more ground balls than fly balls, which is a good thing, because his statcast numbers are not good: a 10.3% barrel rate and 47.1% hard-hit rate tell me he should have pitched much worse than he did over the month, but that BABIP and some solid defense helped limit the damage done against him. He is a very aggressive pitcher, with a 62% first-pitch strike rate and a 60.4% zone rate, which has led to an 81.7% contact rate, but just an 84.4% zone contact rate, so a lot of his 9% swinging strike rate has come inside the zone.

    Even though the Rockies wRC+ against LHP in the month of July is just 96, the 17th best in the league, their wOBA, .327, is the seventh highest, their OPS, .759, is the ninth highest, and their .182 ISO is the 12th highest. They have the ninth lowest strikeout rate and the lowest walk rate in the league (3.9%, one of only two teams under 5%). They have hit more ground balls than fly balls, have the fifth highest hard-hit rate and have the highest soft hit rate (one of just three teams over 20%). They have the third fewest plate appearances when facing a LHP in the month of July, but have hit six home runs, tied for the 16th most with five other teams. They have scored 17 runs, the seventh fewest, and have just 10 extra base hits, the fourth fewest and tied with the Tigers.

    So, why is this a prove it game for Allen? The Rockies have been better than their wRC+, hitting home runs at a higher rate than many teams and scoring runs at a higher rate as well, but have overall been an average offense. Allen has pitched better in July than in the earlier part of the season, but has allowed plenty of hard-hits and barrels, performing well seemingly because he has been lucky and not that good. So Allen will be out to prove it’s not all luck when he limits the Rockies and continues his run of starts of five innings or longer.

    Mike Soroka – WAS – @ HOU – 10%

    Soroka’s July didn’t start off so hot, with a four inning, seven earned run outing against the Red Sox, though he did strikeout six, but it has gotten better. Over his last three starts, he has thrown 14.2 innings, allowed just four earned runs, no home runs and seven walks, while striking out 13. Walks have been a problem for Soroka the past seven weeks or so, but he displayed much better control in the early part of the season, though his strikeout rate was lower. Since his June 12 start, he has a 3.73 BB/9, but also a 10.54 K/9 and even a 0.88 HR/9, which is lower than the early part of the season. He’s had some pretty poor batted ball luck, with a .340 BABIP, and a strand luck, with a 64.5% rate, in the month of July, but hasn’t suffered too much, even though he has a 7.5% barrel rate and a 41.5% hard-hit rate, plus a 44.2% fly ball rate, which is eight points higher than his ground ball rate. He has a 58.8% first-pitch strike rate, a 10.4% swinging strike rate and a 27% chase rate.

    The Astros as a team have the lowest wRC+ when facing RHP at home in the month of July. Their wRC+ is 66, one point lower than the Pirates. But let’s take this a step further: the Astros starting lineup right now has seven right-handed hitters, one switch hitter (Victor Caratini) and one left-handed hitter (Taylor Trammell). So let’s look at how those RHH have fared against RHP at home in July: 59 wRC+, sixth lowest, .250 wOBA, sixth lowest, and .571 OPS, seventh lowest. Their .146 ISO is 14th lowest and their 25.7% strikeout rate is the sixth highest in the league. They have hit more fly balls than ground balls, but they have the highest soft-hit rate and the fourth lowest hard-hit rate, resulting in just five home runs, tied with three others for 11th, even though they had the seventh most RHH PA against RHP at home in July. Caratini, Trammell, Jon Singleton and Cooper Hummel haven’t been much better, adding just seven points to the wRC+ combined.

    Soroka has a chance to really boost his trade value right before the trade deadline by holding a fairly decent Astros offense to little production on Tuesday. Based on how poorly the majority of the lineup has fared as of lately, it shouldn’t be too difficult to keep the Astros from scoring many, if any, runs.

    High-risk: Robinson Pina @ Orioles, Logan Evans @ Athletics, Justin Verlander vs Pirates, Bailey Falter @ Giants, Chris Paddack vs Red Sox, Lance McCullers Jr. vs Nationals, Tanner Gordon @ Guardians, Jonathan Cannon vs Phillies, Colin Rea @ Brewers, Charlie Morton vs Blue Jays, Luis Severino vs Mariners, Yu Darvish vs Mets


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    July 27, 2025, 7:58 pm