Early Week Streamers for June 30th – July 3rd

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  • By Anthony Kates

    Last Updated on June 29, 2025 11:54 pm by Anthony Kates | Published: June 29, 2025

    This year, we’ve decided to do two streaming articles a week for our premium subscribers. The podcast only provides one day of streamers at a time (a day ahead), whereas the streamer articles will provide three and four day streaming outlooks, giving you a leg up on those non-premium Sports Ethos members (and those in your league who don’t use Sports Ethos at all…even though they should).

    The articles will come out every Sunday and every Thursday. As I will be producing Sunday’s article, at the time it is published, it will have the most up-to-date information for Monday through Wednesday’s pitching schedules and streams. If there are any changes, the article will be updated to reflect that, so check back daily. On Monday night, I’ll update Wednesdays streamers, as I have more information and less TBD spots on the schedule. On Tuesday night, I will update and post any streams for Thursday, as there will be more information available for the few Thursday games we will have and there should be no TBD spots on the schedule for that day.

    You will notice that I have very few single digit percentage rostered players during the early part of the week and that’s because I do not want to assume a ton of risk early in the week. There is zero reason to be desperate before Friday, at the earliest, so there is zero reason to take on any kind of high risk stream. But, if you DO want to have risk on a daily basis with your streams, I will highlight the low-rostered and/or high risk streams that might have a modicum of upside, but I wouldn’t personally start, after I’ve discussed the streams I do recommend.

    **All stats for Monday and Tuesday streamers are through Friday’s games, Wednesday’s and Thursday’s are through Monday’s games.**

    Monday – June 30th – Probable Starters

    Trevor Rogers – BAL – @ TEX – 5%

    Rogers began the year on the injured list due to a right knee subluxation and then made a few rehab starts at the end of May and into June, before being called up to replace Cade Povich in the rotation and making his 2025 debut. In three starts so far this year, he has been very effective, throwing 16.1 innings, allowing just three earned runs and walking three, while striking out 13. He has two quality starts, both shutouts of 6.1 to 8 total innings and he has yet to allow a home run. He struggled with Baltimore last year but has looked much better this year, with an elite 4.3% barrel rate but a far too high 53.2% hard-hit rate, a 44.7% ground ball rate (8.4% higher than his fly ball rate) and a 79.7% contact rate. His fastball, sinker and change up are all up at least one mile-per-hour, with all four of his pitches (he also has a slider) returning positive value so far.

    He is facing a Rangers team that he shutout over eight innings in his last start. Over the past month against left-handed pitching, the Rangers have a 90 wRC+, which is the 16th highest in the league, with a .297 wOBA, the 13th lowest, and a .673 OPS, also 13th lowest. They have the third lowest ISO, .102, but also the second best strikeout rate, at just 17.3%. They have a ground ball rate that is nearly ten full percentage points higher than their fly ball rate, with middle of the pack hard and soft hit rates. They have the ninth fewest plate appearances against lefties over the past month, yet they have hit the fewest home runs, with just two, three less than second place, and scored just 24 runs, the eighth fewest, tied with the Braves and Phillies. On four teams have less extra base hits and only 10 have hit into more double plays.

    Rogers blanked this team last time out and they have been one of the least productive offenses against lefties over the past month. I don’t want to say he’ll reproduce what he did last time, but he should be able to limit the Rangers offense and walk away with another quality start.

    Michael Wacha – KCR – @ SEA – 49%

    Wacha has pitched pretty well over his last five starts. He has four quality starts in that time frame, with 30 strikeouts to seven walks over 30.1 innings. He allowed just four home runs and 12 earned runs. He’s had batted ball and strand rate luck on his side, with great statcast numbers (6.8% barrel, 27.3% hard-hit rates), while allowing more fly balls than ground balls. He has allowed just a 15.3% line drive rate and a 75.1% overall contact rate, with a more than solid 13% swinging strike rate and 30.5% chase rate. Wacha has steadily been a top-50 fantasy pitcher in the past two seasons, with an ERA of 3.35 or lower, double digit wins, a WHIP under 1.20 and a 7+ K/9, all of which he should hit again this season. He’s not elite, but seemingly reliable, with more good games than bad.

    The Mariners have been right around the middle of the league over the past month against right-handed pitching at home. They have a 105 wRC+, which is the 13th lowest in the league, a .301 wOBA, which is the seventh lowest and tied with the Giants, a .682 OPS that is eighth lowest and a .139 ISO that is the 11th lowest. They have a 23.1% strikeout rate, which is the eighth highest in the league and an 8.8% walk rate, which is the 18th best rate. They hit more ground balls than fly balls and have the sixth lowest line drive rate, tied with the Red Sox, at 17.8%. They have the second highest soft hit rate, 20.1%, and a middle of the pack hard hit rate, which as resulted in the 17th most home runs, 11, tied with the Phillies, even though they have the 13th most plate appearances against right-handed pitching this past month. They’ve scored 43 runs,19th in the league, hit just 24 extra base hits, fifth fewest and tied with the Red Sox and Royals, but lead the league in stolen bases, with 15.

    This is choosing an above average arm over a mediocre offense, even if the mediocre offense could pop off thanks to having a catcher who is having one of the greatest offensive seasons of all time and being extremely active on the base paths. Give me Wacha and another quality start, though the win is a toss up.

    High-risk: Andrew Heaney vs Cardinals, Patrick Corbin vs Orioles, Max Scherzer vs Yankees, Erick Fedde @ Pirates, Jacob Lopez @ Rays, Ryne Nelson vs Giants, Matt Waldron @ Phillies

    Tuesday – June 24th – Probable Starters

    Colton Gordon – HOU – @ COL – 5%

    Gordon has emerged out of seemingly nowhere to help stabilize the back-end of the Astros rotation. He has made eight starts on the year and has allowed more than three earned runs in just one of them. Over his last five starts, he has thrown 26 innings, walking just three, allowing nine earned runs and six home runs, while striking out 24 batters. The walk rate has been elite and the strikeout rate hasn’t been near what it was in the minor leagues, but with a below average fastball, it is tough to post elite strikeout numbers. He has been a little home prone, but has been able to succeed even though he has had a BABIP north of .300 all season, thanks in part to a strand rate over 80% (93.2% over his last five starts). His statcast numbers have been a bit crooked, with a 10% barrel rate and a 41.3% hard-hit rate, which is why he’s allowed more home runs than you’d like, even though he has just a 36.3% fly ball rate.

    I know it is risky to throw a non-elite arm in Coors, but the Rockies have not been that good on offense against lefties over the past month (85 wRC+, 13th lowest) or on the year (62 wRC+, worst in the league and 7 points lower than the Pirates). They do have a .311 wOBA, which is the 13th best in the league, a .711 OPS, also 13th in the league, and a .155 ISO, 12th best in the league. Their strikeout rate is 23.9%, the 13th highest, and their walk rate is 7.3%, 11th worst and tied with the Dodgers, Reds and Brewers. They have hit more fly balls than ground balls and have the best line drive rate in the league, at 23.6%. They have the fourth highest hard-hit rate and the sixth lowest soft hit rate, but have hit just the second fewest home runs, five, tied with the Phillies, Pirates and Giants, even though they have the 23rd most plate appearances against lefties over the past month. They’ve scored 27 runs, the 13th fewest, have hit into seven double plays, sixth most and tied with four other teams, and stolen one base.

    This is normally the kind of start I would avoid, but I think running Gordon out there is worth the risk. He’s pitched fairly well on the season, the Rockies are a terrible team against lefties and especially lefties at home, where they have a 53 wRC+ on the season. He might allow a home run or two, but I expect another five or more innings and the Astros in a situation to win the game.

    Brady Singer – CIN – @ BOS – 42%

    Singer allowed four earned runs against the Yankees in his most recent start and that snapped a seven game streak of allowing three earned runs or less. Over his last five overall starts, he has thrown 27 innings, allowed 11 earned runs, three home runs, 13 walks and struck out 27. Limiting home runs is good, especially when you play in a bandbox of a home ballpark and you’re a fly ball pitcher, but that walk rate is pretty terrible. The good news is his strikeout rate is up, to one per inning pitched, he’s had some decent, but not crazy, batted ball (.282 BABIP) and strand rate (80.5%) luck and he’s allowing just a 74.5% contact rate (including a 79.2% zone contact rate, which is elite). Though he has allowed more fly balls than ground balls, he has limited line drives to just a 17.8% rate, which is a good thing, especially since his statcast data is pretty poor – 13.5% barrel rate, 44.6% hard-hit rate and a 90.7 MPH average exit velocity. He’s been tolerable more often than not, allowing more than three runs in only four of his 16 starts.

    The Red Sox have been a middle of the pack offense over the past month when facing right handed pitching at home. They have a 107 wRC+ that is just the 17th best in the league, but their .339 wOBA is 13th and so is their OPS, .778, which is tied with the Cubs. They have a 23.6% strikeout rate, which is the sixth highest and a 9.8% walk rate, which is the ninth highest. They hit more ground balls than fly balls, have just a 17.8% line drive rate (tied with Seattle for sixth lowest), with the second lowest hard-hit rate and the fourth highest soft hit rate, tied with the Royals. They have the fewest plate appearances at home against right-handed pitching over the past month, with eight home runs, tied for seventh fewest with the Rockies, 36 runs, tied for the sixth fewest, and have hit into seven double plays, the 10th most in the league and tied with eight other teams, all of whom have at least 74 or more plate appearances than the Red Sox.

    The Red Sox offense is scuffling a bit as of late and seems more dangerous than it really is, but I believe Singer will be able to handle their bats and produce a decent line. I think he will get back to his three earned runs or less ways, with five or more innings and a strikeout per inning.

    Charlie Morton – BAL – @ TEX – 25%

    Morton was so bad to start the year off that the Orioles had him come out of the bullpen in six out of a seven appearance stretch from April 26 through May 17. But, he has been much better since then and fantastic in June. Over five June starts, he has thrown 25 innings, winning three games, tossing two quality starts, while walking just eight batters, allowing no home runs and eight earned runs and striking out 32 batters. And he has done that in the face of an absurd .397 BABIP. He has had a little luck on his side, with a 76.3% strand rate, but his 1.5% barrel rate and 35.3% hard-hit rate have really helped him limit any damage done by such a high BABIP. He has a very high line drive rate, at 29.2%, but he has allowed less fly balls than ground balls, and has just a 73.9% contact rate overall. He has a decent 12.3% swinging strike rate, but a chase rate under 30%, which makes me think the strikeout rate will come down against better teams.

    The Ranger continue to be one of the worst teams at home when facing right handed pitching. They have an 84 wRC+, third worst, over the past month, and a 78 wRC+ on the season, when facing righties at home. Over the past month, they also have just a .289 wOBA and a .643 OPS, both also third worst, with the fourth lowest ISO, .112, and the second highest strikeout rate, 24.7%. They also have an 11.3% walk rate, which is the second best in the league, yet they still have a bottom 10 on-base percentage. They hit nearly as many ground balls as fly balls, have a below average line drive rate and the fourth lowest HR/FB rate in the league. They have the ninth fewest plate appearances against right-handed pitching at home over the past month, but just the third fewest home runs, five, tied with three others, fourth fewest runs, 31, the fourth fewest extra base hits, 21 and seven double plays, the 10th most and tied with eight other teams.

    Morton faced the Rangers in his last start, holding them to just three runs over five innings, but he only struck out three and walked two. The Rangers have been better on the road than at home, so I think Morton will have a better outing this go round than the first, with a strikeout per inning and another five or more innings of limited run scoring.

    High-risk: Trevor Williams vs Tigers, Andre Pallante @ Pirates, Hayden Birdsong @ Diamondbacks, Tyler Anderson vs Braves, Michael Lorenzen @ Mariners, Chase Dollander vs Rockies, Gavin Williams @ Cubs, Shane Smith @ Dodgers, Richard Fitts vs Reds, Didier Fuentes vs Angels, Emerson Hancock vs Royals, Edward Cabrera vs Twins, Jeffrey Springs @ Rays


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    June 29, 2025, 11:54 pm