Early Week Streamers for May 26th – May 29th

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  • By Anthony Kates

    Last Updated on May 25, 2025 4:02 am by Anthony Kates | Published: May 25, 2025

    This year, we’ve decided to do two streaming articles a week for our premium subscribers. The podcast only provides one day of streamers at a time (a day ahead), whereas the streamer articles will provide three and four day streaming outlooks, giving you a leg up on those non-premium Sports Ethos members (and those in your league who don’t use Sports Ethos at all…even though they should).

    The articles will come out every Sunday and every Thursday. As I will be producing Sunday’s article, at the time it is published, it will have the most up-to-date information for Monday through Wednesday’s pitching schedules and streams. If there are any changes, the article will be updated to reflect that, so check back daily. On Monday night, I’ll update Wednesdays streamers, as I have more information and less TBD spots on the schedule. On Tuesday night, I will update and post any streams for Thursday, as there will be more information available for the few Thursday games we will have and there should be no TBD spots on the schedule for that day.

    You will notice that I have very few single digit percentage rostered players during the early part of the week and that’s because I do not want to assume a ton of risk early in the week. There is zero reason to be desperate before Friday, at the earliest, so there is zero reason to take on any kind of high risk stream. But, if you DO want to have risk on a daily basis with your streams, I will highlight the low-rostered and/or high risk streams that might have a modicum of upside, but I wouldn’t personally start, after I’ve discussed the streams I do recommend.

    **All stats for Monday and Tuesday streamers are through Friday’s games, Wednesday’s and Thursday’s are through Monday’s games.**

    Monday – May 26th – Probable Starters

    Nick Martinez – CIN – @ KCR – 38%

    Martinez is on quite a nice little run right now, with five straight quality starts, six starts in a row without allowing a home run and he has allowed just six walks over his last six games, after walking seven in his first four starts. He has allowed eight runs over these six starts, compared to allowing 15 runs over his first four. He has a career low home run rate (0.62 HR/9), one of the lowest walk rates of his career (2.03 BB/9; 1.47 over his last six starts), his barrel rate is just 5.8% and his hard-hit rate 34.7%. And he has done it without any kind of extreme BABIP (.291) or strand rate (71.7%) luck. He may not have big strikeout numbers or elite velocity, so he attacks hitters, with a 59.1% first-pitch strike and 53.5% zone rate during his six start run, has great control (62% strike rate) and uses all six of his pitches to keep hitters off-balance and out of rhythm.

    And he is facing a Royals team that is struggling to hit for power and score runs at home as of late. Over the past month, against right-handed pitchers at home, the Royals have 388 plate appearances, the 11th highest total, but have hit just three home runs (fewest in the league) and scored 36 runs (tied-for seventh lowest, with four other teams). They have a 94 wRC+, the 11th lowest, .316 wOBA, 13th lowest, .791 OPS, 14th lowest, and .398 SLG, 11th lowest. They are striking out just 16.5% of the time, the lowest rate in the league, but they are also walking just 6.2% of the time, the second lowest rate in the league. They have hit slightly more fly balls than ground balls, but have just a 29.6% hard-hit rate, the 11th lowest, an a 16.5% soft-hit rate, tied-for the 11th highest (Minnesota).

    Ryan Weathers – MIA – @ SDP – 26%

    Another year, another Weathers injury. A forearm strain kept Weathers out from spring training until May 14th, when he made his 2025 debut. He’s made two starts so far this year, both against the Cubs, one at home and one away. He allowed only one earned run in each game (both off of a solo home run), walked one and struck out nine. It’s a small sample size, so let’s take it with a very large grain of salt, but he has an 11.1% barrel rate and just a 29.6% hard-hit rate. He’s allowed more fly balls than ground balls so far, but has dropped his walk rate and greatly improved his chase rate. He’s slowly made improvements as he’s pitched more at the big league level and this off-season he added nearly 1.5 MPH to his fastball, 2 MPH to his slider and nearly a full mile per hour to his sinker. He threw more pitches in the zone than ever before while dropping his first pitch strike rate and saw success against the Cubs.

    He should see some of the same success against a Padres team that has the 10th lowest wRC+ against lefties over the past month (75). They also have just a .275 wOBA, which is ninth, and a .622 OPS that is 10th. They have the fourth lowest walk rate (6.5%) and their strikeout rate has settled into the middle of the pack (22.7%). They’ve struggled to elevate the ball against lefties, with the lowest fly ball rate (33.1%) and the sixth highest soft-hit rate (45.7%) which, combined with the second highest soft-hit rate and the ninth lowest hard-hit rate, has led to only eleven total extra base hit over 216 plate appearances against left-handed pitching over the past month (only five of those were home runs). They scored just 18 runs, the sixth lowest amount.

    Hayden Birdsong – SFG – @ DET – 33%

    Just hear me out on this and if you don’t agree after I am done, just don’t stream Birdsong. But after how he handled the Royals fairly well in his first start, I think he can have a solid start against the Tigers (the Royals have a 130 wRC+ on the road versus right-handed pitchers over the past month and Birdsong held them to one unearned run and five hits, with four strikeouts, over five innings; the Tigers have a 106 wRC+ against righties at home over the same time frame). It’s tough to separate how he pitches as a starter from how he pitches as a reliever, at least this year, because we do have just the one start so far. But what we have seen, so far, is that he has improved his control, reducing his BB/9 from 5.38 to 3.18 (and walking none in his lone start), his home run rate is very close to the same (1.38 in 2024, 1.27 HR/9 this year), with a drop in his strikeout rate (11 to 9.21 K/9), even though his chase rate (30.8%) and his swinging strike rate (12.6%) are both improved. He has a nice four pitch mix and has featured his slider much more this year, while halving his curveball usage. He was a big strikeout guy with lots of walks in the minor leagues, but fantasy managers will be okay with a drop in strikeouts if it also means less batters being walked.

    The Tigers 106 wRC+ is just the 12th highest in the league, with their .317 wOBA coming in at 17th highest and their .714 OPS landing in 19th place. They have the second highest strikeout rate (26%) and the tied-for sixth highest walk rate (10%, with the Rangers). They’ve hit slightly more fly balls than ground balls, with the 14th highest hard-hit rate (32.1%) and the tied-for 18th highest soft-hit rate (15.3%, with the Diamondbacks). They have the fourth lowest amount of plate appearances the past month at home against righties, but they are tied-for 16th with 10 home runs (with the Marlins and Astros) and 17th with 40 runs (with the Twins). They don’t steal many bases (just two, tied-for third with the Padres) and have more extra base hits than just eight teams (tied with the Phillies with 24).

    If Birdsong can hang in there and keep the Giants in the game, limiting the Tigers to no more than a couple of runs while limiting base runners, it will go a long way towards keeping him in the rotation and getting him into more fantasy lineups. This is a risky start, but the payoff could be very sweet and set up a very good two start week, since he will face the Marlins to end the week on Sunday.

    High-risk: Jameson Taillon vs Rockies, Adrian Houser @ Mets, Carson Palmquist @ Cubs, Michael Lorenzen vs Reds, Jack Kochanowicz vs Yankees, Chad Patrick vs Red Sox, Ryan Yarborough @ Angels, Andrew Heaney @ Diamondbacks, Randy Vasquez vs Marlins, Zack Littell vs Twins, Erick Fedde @ Orioles, Ryne Nelson vs Pirates

    Tuesday – May 27th- Probable Starters

    Stephen Kolek – SDP – vs MIA – 17%

    Let’s ne honest with each other here: Kolek has basically come out of nowhere to pitch pretty well for someone who has logged more innings as a reliever than a starter over the last two seasons (he had one start each in 2023 and 2024, before the Padres uno-reversed him and made him a starter again). He’s got four starts in the big leagues this year, including a complete game shutout in Colorado (elite starters rarely do that, but this guy did?). He strikes out less than a batter per inning (7.46 K/9), limits home runs (1.07 HR/9) and has displayed decent control (2.784 BB/9). He’s inducing far more ground balls than fly balls (in fact, double the amount: 54.1% vs 27%), has just a 4.1% barrel rate (but a 50% hard-hit rate, which isn’t great at all) and is an aggressive pitcher (53.7% zone rate and 59.6% first-pitch strike rate). He does allow too much contact (84.1%), but with so many ground balls and such poor quality, he’s been able to limit the damage done to him in all but one start so far (he allowed five earned runs and three home runs at home against the Mariners). He has walked at least one batter in all four of his starts, but that game against the Mariners is the only time he has allowed any home runs.

    He’s facing a Marlins team that has definitely improved against righties on the road, especially over the past month, with a 99 wRC+ (tied-for 11th with the Dodgers), a .316 wOBA (tied-for 13th with the Mariners) and a .718 OPS, 14th. They have the tied-for 11th lowest strikeout rate, 20%, and the 10th lowest walk rate, 7.5%. They have hit more ground balls than fly balls, have the second lowest hard hit rate and the eighth lowest soft-hit rate, resulting in the tied-for sixth most home runs, 16, with the Twins, and the tied-for 20th most runs, 42, with the Reds, though they have the tied-for 12th most plate appearances against righties on the road over the past month. They’ve ground into seven double-plays, tied for the 11th most, and have stolen eight bases, tied-for the eighth most (Mariners).

    Chris Paddack – MIN – @ TBR – 16%

    Since Paddack’s start on April 12th, he has thrown at least five innings and has allowed more than two runs in a game only once. He has eight starts (two quality starts), has struck out 31, walked 13 and allowed just four home runs and 11 earned runs, taking on both great (Detroit) and terrible (the White Sox) offenses, and everything in between. He has just a 7.6% barrel rate in that time, though he also has a 46.6% hard-hit rate, with a 46.5% fly-ball rate, but just a 13.2% line drive rate. He pitches aggressively, with a 52.3% zone rate and a  65.3% first-pitch strike rate, which as led to a 31% chase rate and a 50.1% swing rate. He allows a bit too much contact (82.6%), but by limiting the quality of that contact and limiting line drives, he’s been able to able to limit the damage done. He won’t strike out a ton of guys, his walk rate has improved and he’s limiting home runs, kind of the perfect storm to face a that has been below average at home against righties over the past month.

    The Rays have an 88 wRC+, tied-for the fifth lowest (Braves, Guardians, White Sox), a .284 wOBA, third lowest, and a .642 OPS, the fourth lowest. Their 23.4% strikeout rate is the ninth highest and their 7.8% walk rate is tied-for the 11th lowest (Padres, Braves). They have the lowest fly ball rate (30.3%), the third highest ground ball rate (47.3%), the lowest hard-hit rate (25.1%) and the third highest soft hit rate (18.6%). They have the fewest plate appearances against righties at home over the past month, they are tied for third-fewest home runs, seven, with five other teams, and they have the fewest runs scored. They are tied with the Rangers for fewest extra base hits (16), but they are also tied for-the third most stolen bases, 11, with three other teams.

    Cade Horton – CHC – vs COL – 19%

    Horton has had a weird time in the majors so far. In his debut, he came on in relief against the Mets, striking out five over four innings, allowing no walks, one home run and three earned runs. In his first start, against the White Sox, he allowed three earned runs and two home runs, striking out just two over five innings. In his last start, he struck out three, walked three and allowed just one earned run over five and a-third innings, allowing no home runs. He hasn’t shown off the strikeout chops he had in the minor leagues, though his control has been better. And now he gets to face a Rockies team that has the second worst offense on the road against righties over the past month. He has just a 38.8% hard-hit rate, but an 8.2% barrel rate, and has induced more ground balls than fly balls, with just a 12.5% line drive rate. He’s allowed a 78% contact rate (92% zone-contact rate, which is much too high), with just a 28% chase rate and 10.9% swinging strike rate, both much lower than he ever had in the minor leagues. He is attacking hitters in the bigs though, with a 61.9% first-pitch strike rate and a 49.6% zone-rate, he just hasn’t generated the strikeouts he’s used to yet. But he gets to face one of the worst road offenses in the league in this start.

    The Rockies have the second lowest wRC+, 67, in the league against righties on the road over the last month (they are 10 points better than the Pirates but 16 points worse than the White Sox). They have the second lowest wOBA and OPS, the lowest OBP (by one point), the tied-for third highest strikeout rate (26.7%, Orioles) and a middle of the league walk rate. They hit more grounders than fly balls, have the seventh lowest line-drive rate, the eleventh highest hard-hit rate and the seventh highest soft hit rate. They have the seventh fewest plate appearances, the tied-for third fewest home runs (7, Giants and Blue Jays) and the second fewest runs (23).

    Getting the Rockies, in Chicago, when they are performing this poorly on the road, should be a blessing for Horton. This should be his best performance yet and one where we could see him get closer to that strikeout or more per inning pitched rate, while limiting runs and walks. I named him a future Cy Young winner before he was injured last year and I stick by that and believe this start could be the one that throws his hat into the Rookie of the Year race in the National League.

    High-risk: Mitchell Parker @ Mariners, Bowden Francis @ Rangers, Andre Pallante @ Orioles, Mike Burrows @ Diamondbacks, Taijuan Walker vs Braves, Aaron Civale vs Red Sox, Max Meyer @ Padres, Dustin May @ Guardians, Tyler Anderson vs Yankees, Luinder Avila vs Reds, German Marquez @ Cubs, Brady Singer @ Royals, Shane Smith @ Mets, Tomoyuki Sugano vs Cardinals, JP Sears @ Astros, Logan Evans vs Nationals


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    May 25, 2025, 4:02 am