Early Week Streamers for May 19th – May 22nd

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  • By Anthony Kates

    Last Updated on May 18, 2025 3:27 am by Anthony Kates | Published: May 18, 2025

    This year, we’ve decided to do two streaming articles a week for our premium subscribers. The podcast only provides one day of streamers at a time (a day ahead), whereas the streamer articles will provide three and four day streaming outlooks, giving you a leg up on those non-premium Sports Ethos members (and those in your league who don’t use Sports Ethos at all…even though they should).

    The articles will come out every Sunday and every Thursday. As I will be producing Sunday’s article, at the time it is published, it will have the most up-to-date information for Monday through Wednesday’s pitching schedules and streams. If there are any changes, the article will be updated to reflect that, so check back daily. On Monday night, I’ll update Wednesdays streamers, as I have more information and less TBD spots on the schedule. On Tuesday night, I will update and post any streams for Thursday, as there will be more information available for the few Thursday games we will have and there should be no TBD spots on the schedule for that day.

    You will notice that I have very few single digit percentage rostered players during the early part of the week and that’s because I do not want to assume a ton of risk early in the week. There is zero reason to be desperate before Friday, at the earliest, so there is zero reason to take on any kind of high risk stream. But, if you DO want to have risk on a daily basis with your streams, I will highlight the low-rostered and/or high risk streams that might have a modicum of upside, but I wouldn’t personally start, after I’ve discussed the streams I do recommend.

    **All stats for Monday and Tuesday streamers are through Friday’s games, Wednesday’s and Thursday’s are through Monday’s games.**

    Monday – May 19th – Probable Starters

    Gunnar Hoglund – ATH – vs LAA – 18%

    The Angels have struggled a bit when facing a right-handed pitcher (RHP) on the road over the last month. They have an 89 wRC+, which is tied for eighth lowest, with the Blue Jays, a .295 wOBA, which is also eighth lowest, and a .663 OPS, which is ninth lowest. They have the highest strikeout rate, 30.6%, that is four percentage points higher than the second worst Rays, and an 8.1% walk rate, which is middle of the pack (and tied with the Orioles). They do hit more fly balls than ground balls, with the third highest fly ball rate (42.7%), but they have the fourth lowest hard-hit rate (28.1%) and the seventh highest low-hit rate, 18.4%. They have the seventh least amount of plate appearances (PA) against RHP this past month, but have the tied-for 15th most home runs (11; tied with the Mariners and Padres) and the tied-for third fewest runs (30; tied with the Pirates).

    Hoglund has had a pretty decent start to his big league career. He’s started three games, throwing at least 5.1 innings in all three, and has struck out 15 batters, while allowing four walks, four home runs and seven total earned runs. Obviously the home runs are a bit much, but three of them came in his start against the Dodgers in LA (where the Dodgers have an absurd 194 wRC+ against righties over the past month), so I won’t hold it against him yet. He’s always had pretty good control in the minors and generally limited home runs, skills which I think will translate throughout the year, though he probably won’t be a big strikeout guy, as he rarely average a strikeout or more per inning. He has have a 38% hard-hit rate and a 10% barrel rate, though he’s limited batters to just a 73.2% contact rate, has a 12.1% swinging strike rate and has attacked hitters so far, with a 54.9% zone rate and a 56.5% first-pitch strike rate. I expect a fourth straight start of five innings or more with a high-chance of throwing his second quality start.

    Ben Brown – CHC – @ MIA – 22%

    Over the past month, the Marlins have been right around the middle of the pack when facing a RHP at home. They have a 101 wRC+, which is the 16th best, a .325 wOBA, also 16th best, and a .744 OPS, which is tied for 13th best with two other teams (the Reds and Red Sox). They have the seventh highest strikeout rate, 24%, but just an 8.4% walk rate. They hit just a few more fly balls than ground balls, with the 10th worst line drive rate, 18.9%. They have the eighth highest hard hit rate and the 10th highest soft hit rate. They have the seventh fewest PA against RHP at home over the past month, which has led to the eighth least home runs (7), tied-for 10th least runs (37; with the Rangers) and the tied for sixth most stolen bases (11).

    And Brown is facing them for the second start in a row. Last time out, in Chicago, he threw 5.1 innings, struck out 6, allowing five hits (one home run) and two earned runs. It was the fifth time in eight starts he had thrown at least five innings. He is on the best string of starts of his big league career so far, throwing five or more innings in three straight games. Over those three starts, he has pitched 16.1 innings, struck out 19, walked just two, allowed only one home run and five earned runs. He has allowed more than three earned runs in a start only twice, against the Phillies and the Padres, while allowing two earned runs or less five times. Walks have been a problem, as he has five games with two or more walks, but he has done well limiting home runs and working around a not-so-great BABIP of .381. His statcast numbers have been better this year than last, though they are higher than you’d like, with a 7.4% barrel rate and a 43.4% hard-hit rate (91.4 MPH avgEV). But he does force grounders more than fly balls, has just a 73.6% contact rate (25th best; Hunter Brown, Joe Ryan and Garrett Crochet are all within 0.1%), with a 12.2% swinging strike rate and a 66.5% first-pitch strike rate. I think he walks away with his fourth straight start of five innings or more, limits walks and home runs and the Cubs reward him with his fourth win of the season.

    High-risk: Dean Kremer @ Brewers, Hunter Dobbins vs Mets, Davis Martin vs Mariners, Logan Allen @ Twins, Kyle Freeland vs Phillies, Keider Montero @ Cardinals, Jose Soriano @ Athletics, Landon Knack vs Diamondbacks, Mitch Keller vs Reds, Quinnn Priester vs Orioles

    Tuesday – May 20th- Probable Starters

    Nick Martinez – CIN – @ Pirates – 31%

    The Pirates aren’t the absolutely horrendous offense they were in the early weeks of the season, but over the last month against RHP at home, they have still been below average, with an 86 wRC+ that is the sixth lowest in the league (17 teams have a 101 or higher, which makes sense, as most teams perform better at home than on the road). They have a .302 wOBA, which is the eighth lowest, a .672 OPS, also eighth lowest, and a .117 ISO, fifth lowest. They have just a 20.5% strikeout rate, which is middle of the pack, and a 10.6% walk rate, which is tied for the fourth best, with the Giants. They hit more ground balls than fly balls, but have the ninth lowest soft hit rate (15.5%) and the fifth highest hard-hit rate (35.9%). They have the eighth fewest PA, the tied-for fifth fewest home runs (6), they’re tied for least runs scored (22, with the Rays) and have the fifth fewest extra base hits, while hitting into the tied-for fifth most double-plays (8). This is a poor performing and underwhelming offense that will rarely score a ton of runs.

    Martinez has been good, but not great, so far this year. His strikeout rate is down, walk rate is slightly up and his home runs down again, and he is on a four game quality start streak. Over his current streak, he has allowed zero home runs (in fact, he hasn’t allowed a home run over his past five games), he’s only walked two batters and he’s allowed just five earned runs, while striking out 17 over 25 innings. Now, he did face just one good team over this stretch of quality starts, the Astros, yet he still held them to three runs on no walks and home runs, over six innings. And the Pirates are a much worse team than the Astros. So let’s give Martinez his fifth straight quality start, his third win, another game with no home runs and one or less earned run.

    Tomoyuki Sugano – BAL – @ MIL – 39%

    By almost any measure, the Brewers have been the worst team, at home, against RHP, over the past month. Their 54 wRC+ is the lowest by 18 points. Their .248 wOBA by 14 points. Their OPS by 48 points. They have a .086 ISO, which is 18 points lower than the Rangers. AVG, OBP, SLG, BABIP…all are the lowest in the league. They have the third lowest walk rate (6.8%) and the 11th highest strikeout rate (22.8%). They hit more fly balls than ground balls (44.2%, third highest fly ball rate), but have the second highest soft hit rate (22%) and the tied-for ninth lowest hard-hit rate (28.6%, with the Reds). They have the second fewest PA against RHP over the past month, but the least amount of home runs (3) and third least amount of runs (25). It might be a smaller sample size than many, but it’s still really bad.

    Sugano got off to a slow start, struggling a little bit to pitch deeper into games over his first three starts, but in six starts since then, he has pitched at least six innings in five of them. After walking five batters over his first three starts, he has walked only four over his last six, though he has allowed seven home runs as well. He has allowed more than two earned runs in only three games all season and more than three only once. He’s not much of a strikeout guy (he’s struck out at least a batter per inning in only one start all year), but has amazing control, so he also won’t walk many, if any batters, game to game. Home runs seem like they will be a problem throughout the year, but before the Twins got to him for four runs in his last start, Sugano had allowed just eight runs over five starts. Against a Brewers team that, as of the time of this writing (Saturday night, after all games are over) hasn’t scored a run in 18 innings at home, I think he will perform fairly well. The Brewers haven’t shown much power at all at home, don’t walk and struggle to get on base – the perfect kind of offense for a soft tossing control artist to succeed against.

    Zack Littell – TBR – vs HOU – 14%

    The Astros have had a bit of a struggle on the road against RHP over the past month (in two of the three games in Arlington against the Rangers they were held to one or less runs facing primarily right-handed pitching). They have the fifth lowest wRC+, 79, the fourth lowest wOBA, .280, the fourth lowest OPS, .624, and the sixth lowest ISO, .109. They do have just an 18.6% walk rate, which is good for tied-for sixth lowest strikeout rate, but they also have the fourth lowest walk rate, at 6.6%. They hit more ground balls than fly balls, which means their 14.6% soft-hit rate (ninth lowest) and 33.5% hard-hit rate (10th highest) have mainly resulted in very fast ground balls and a one-in-five scorching line drive. They have the 12th fewest PA, yet just seven home runs, fourth lowest in the league, and only 33 runs, tied with the Angels for fifth lowest. They are without Yordan Alvarez and no one has stepped it up in his absence, with Jose Altuve and Co. suffering without their big bopper in the lineup.

    Littell has thrown a ton of innings so far this year, 54.1 innings to be exact, with only six other pitchers who have also pitched nine times have surpassed (six who have 10 starts have also surpassed it, but they needed and additional game) and he has thrown less than six innings only twice so far this season (and less than five innings only once). He hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in his last six starts, with five of the starts being quality starts. He’s not a big strikeout guy and limits walks, but his home runs are out of control this year, since he has allowed 13 over his 54.1 innings, which is the same amount as he allowed over NINETY innings in 2023 and nine less than he allowed in 102 more innings last year. I’d expect that rate to come down, much like I believe his high barrel (13.8%) and hard-hit (45.4%) rates will as well, since both would be career highs in extended innings. Littell is an aggressive pitcher, attacking batters early (66.7% first-pitch strike rate) and often (57% zone-rate), who also allows plenty of contact (83.6%), but also gets plenty of chase (30.6%). It may take having Alvarez back in the lineup for Altuve, Yainer Diaz, Christian Walker and company to break out of their on-the-road slump, but that probably won’t happen before this game, so Littell should have a decent game, maybe even his seventh quality start, while hopefully limiting walks and home runs against a team who has struggled with both.

    High-risk: Patrick Corbin @ Yankees, Erick Fedde vs Tigers, Bailey Falter vs Reds, Ryan Weathers vs Cubs, Kyle Hendricks @ Athletics, Michael Lorenzen @ Giants, Colton Gordon @ Rays, Antonio Senzatela vs Phillies, Bryse Wilson vs Mariners, Osvaldo Bido vs Angels, Ryne Nelson @ Dodgers, Hayden Birdsong vs Royals, Will Warren vs Rangers, Chris Paddack vs Guardians, Jameson Taillon @ Marlins, Mitchell Parker vs Braves


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    May 18, 2025, 3:27 am

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