Formulating a list of bold predictions was harder than I anticipated. I want them to be bold yet not so bold that none of them have even a slight chance to materialize. After laboring over possibilities and trying to keep things ‘reasonable,’ here are my best bold predictions for the 2025 season:

1) Kyle Tucker Finishes as the No. 1 Player (or maybe No. 2)

Kyle Tucker was a first-round draft pick this year but almost always was drafted in the back half of that initial round. The top three picks were Ohtani, Witt and Judge – but never Tucker. I am not aware of anyone who picked Tucker at number 1, 2 or 3.

My bold prediction is that Tucker indeed finishes the year at number one overall! Yes, last year was a washout due to that mysterious deep bone bruise, but Tucker was awesome before the injury and he was awesome again upon his return. This year, it’s all KT and no bone bruise! He will hit for power and average with his new team. By the way, his new team runs a lot more than his old one (Cubs have been in the top 10 in steals the past two seasons but the Astros have been just barely inside the Top 20). Tucker increased his stolen bases every year of his career until last year’s disaster and I think he’ll resume that trend this year.

The call here is that Tucker, who just happens to be in a contract year, sets personal records in homers and steals by going 35/35 enroute to a number one overall fantasy rank in 2025. (Ed. Note: I’m counting this as a win even if Tucker finishes at number two, losing to Ohtani. After all, Ohtani is Ohtani!).

2) Fernando Tatis Finishes Outside the Top 50

Tatis sported an ADP of 10 to 15 on most platforms and was frequently selected at the end of the first round or early part of the second. Forget first round value – my bold prediction is that he ends the year outside the Top 50 (fifth round or later value).

Tatis misses time every year. Many projections show Tatis reaching over 600 at-bats. However, that is something that he has accomplished just once in his career. The year was 2023 and guess where Tatis finished that year? Yup, just outside the Top 50 (Yahoo). I am aware that Tatis has star power with a Statcast page lit up in red and that he is very good when he plays. But that’s the point – he rarely plays a full season and 2025 won’t be an exception to that rule.

3) Soto Bombs in First Year with Mets

Soto won’t truly bomb but my bold prediction is that he doesn’t come close to returning value on this year’s draft capital (usually picked near the middle of the first round). In fact, let’s put him outside the Top 50 just like Tatis. And don’t act like that cannot happen. We are only two seasons removed from Soto hitting just .246 for the Nationals then being traded at the deadline after which he was even worse (just six homers and batted .236 for the Padres). Exhibit A: Soto signed a massive contract to play for the Mets. I’m just not a fan of players who super-perform in a contract year and then sign a massive deal. Exhibit B: Moving to Citi Field from Yankee Stadium. Soto was in an extremely favorable situation as a lefty at Yankee Stadium and now finds himself nowhere near as good a setup at Citi Field. Signing a massive deal and heading to a worse park makes me fear that first-round picks on Soto will far under-perform. Sorry!

4) Austin Riley Finishes in the Top 15

After two downers, let’s be more positive with a bold prediction. Remember how all Braves hitters stunk last year? Riley was part of that mess, but only for the first two months. Unlike most of his teammates, Riley found his groove and went back to hitting for power and average in June, July and part of August. Unfortunately, disaster struck in mid-August when Riley suffered a season ending fractured right hand.

Riley averaged 35 homers from 2021 to 2023. With a full season of good health (fingers crossed!), the bold call here is that Riley slugs 40 homers and hits .280 while finishing in the Top 15. That makes his ADP of 30 look like a bargain. (Ed. Note: Coming from a Phillies fan, this one hurts!).

5) Harper Ends 2025 Outside the Top 50

Uh oh, here’s another one that hurts. It’s also another negative themed bold prediction of a star player landing outside the Top 50. This time, we’re talking about superstar Bryce Harper.

Harper was very good last year but there were small cautionary signs. First, his expected batting average and expected slugging percentage were a little lower than his actual numbers and among the lowest of his career. His exit velocities decreased a little for the third straight year. Harper’s barrel rate of 10.4% was below his career average (lowest of his six years in Philly). I’m not bold predicting that Harper is a bum. Rather, we should expect the 32-year-old to be not quite as good as he was last year. And guess where he finished last year? He was barely inside the Top 40 in Yahoo and on the Fangraphs player rater. This year, he slips to just outside the Top 50 – and much lower than his second-round price tag in 2025 drafts.

6) Matt McLain’s 75 ADP Busts

Matt McLain had a very good rookie season in 2023 when he hit .290 with 16 homers and 14 steals in little more than half a season. Fantasy managers had big expectations for McLain heading into 2024. Too bad, though, as a shoulder injury forced him to miss the entire season.

So, we have a young inexperienced player with a grand total of 400 MLB plate appearances coming off a year-long injury. Why are people paying a sixth or seventh round pick (sometimes even a fourth round, per late March NFBC data!) for him? That excellent .290 average back in 2023 came with just a .256 expected average and a nearly 29% strikeout rate. McLain’s average exit velocity that year matched the average player’s numbers and his walk rate was below average. McLain’s 75 ADP is a bust as he finishes the year outside the Top 150 (and maybe even in the minors!).

7) Luke Weaver Replaces Devin Williams as Yankees Closer

Devin Williams had a phenomenal career for the out-of-the-limelight Milwaukee Brewers, first as a setup man then as the closer after Josh Hader went to San Diego. Now, however, he has to perform under the bright lights of New York City. Maybe he fails to rise to the occasion. Maybe Yankee Stadium and Yankee fans are just too much for him. Maybe the back injury that cost him half of last season resurfaces. Beats me, but one way or the other, Luke Weaver replaces Williams and becomes the Yankee closer again, just like last year.

8) Cardinals Crash into Window, Finish in Last Place

“St. Louis” and “last place” don’t often go together in a sentence, especially when it comes to baseball. But that’s not the case this year. They’re heading for the basement. Yes, they are going to be even worse than the Pirates.

The expected lineup for the Cardinals features a ‘sleeper’ of the past couple years who usually under-performs (Lars Nootbar) batting second. It also has a fading do-we-or-don’t-we-trade-him cleanup hitter (Nolan Arenado) and not one but two minor league stars who have yet to get their acts together in the majors (Jordan Walker and Victor Scott II). On the pitching side, Sonny Gray is a fine enough starter but the rest of their rotation is filled with guys that you don’t consider in conventional 5×5 12-team drafts (Fedde, Mikolas, Pallante and Matz). Things don’t look good in St. Louis heading into the season and they’ll probably look worse at the trade deadline. Last place and just 72 wins, coming right up!

9) Dodgers Set Record, Win 117 Games

The Dodgers won 98 games last year and went on to win the World Series. Their success was despite the fact that they lead the majors in games missed due to injuries. They had so many injuries that their lineup was unrecognizable at times. Players like Cavin Biggio, Nick Ahmed, Amed Rosario and Miguel Vargas paraded to the plate while pitchers Landon Knack and Justin Wrobleski combined to make nearly 20 starts.  Doesn’t sound like a championship team, does it? Surely they won’t be as injured this year, right? RIGHT??

The Dodgers didn’t act like champs after the World Series. They kept their foot on the gas by adding two-time Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell and luring possible ace Roki Sasaki from Japan. They also added two of last year’s top closers in Tanner Scott and Kirby Yates. They’re getting Dustin May back as a starter and should see the return of Shohei Ohtani to the mound. It doesn’t seem fair, does it? This isn’t a team just hoping to repeat. They’re going for the record of wins by a team in a season (116) that is currently held by the 1906 Cubs and 2001 Mariners!

10) Phils Win World Series!

Despite setting the record with 117 wins in a season, the Dodgers choke in the NLCS by losing to the Philles. The Phils go on to win the World Series! Hey, a lifelong Phillies fan can have hope (bold hope), can’t he?

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