The bitter taste of disappointment is sure to sting even the most veteran of fantasy managers. We come into every season with high hopes, and that’s not just endemic to the fantasy basketball community. Every player believes they’ll have a career year. Every coach and fanbase believes in their team. Even the teams that very clearly don’t have the talent have an itch in the back of their mind that screams “This is our year.”

Yet, reality must continually slap us in the face and make us face it head-on. It’s a brutal experience, but it’s life. We are not immune here at SportsEthos. Otherwise, we’d be dead.

There are plenty of disappointments to investigate, but as humans, we take these experiences and try to learn from them. In some cases, there’s nothing to be learned. It’s simply bad luck. In others, we take away from them and we grow. It’s the only way to move forward.

Let’s take a look at the break and see which players and teams have been the biggest bad surprises.

The Bad Surprises

 

Paolo Banchero

Surprise Level: Low

I’m starting to come around on Banchero and he totally deserved his all-star selection this season. In fantasy, his value is still lagging behind thanks to a dip in FT% and a lack of three-pointers coupled with a drop in FT%. He can’t continue to be a 70.2% shooter from the charity stripe, but this is a strange case as he has seen a 6.7% rise in his three-point percentage. We typically see a rise in FT% with a rise in 3PT%, so the free-throw shooting seems to be the outlier to me.

We should see this rise over the remaining games of the season. His free-throw percentage has been dragged down due to a slow start to the season as he shot just 53.8% to start the season in October and 68.7% through 14 games in November. He should finish around his 73.8% from last season, finishing closer to a mid-round player.

The lack of defensive stats may always be an issue, capping his fantasy upside. He isn’t as egregious as Julius Randle in these categories, but he’s certainly not helpful. If you’re punting FT%, Banchero climbs into easy mid-round territory with seventh-round value on the season. Pair him with guys like Rudy Gobert, Giannis Antetokounmpo, De’Aaron Fox, and Nicolas Claxton for maximum results, but he’s still not living up to his nearly third-round ADP.

Klay Thompson

Surprise Level: Low

Klay Thompson posted sixth-round value last season and had an ADP of 90.3 this season. Those who drafted him expected a player that would be a few rounds earlier in final value. That could still very well be the case, despite a shift to the bench, but so far it has been rough sledding.

And that’s putting it mildly. Thompson is putting up a career-worst FG% and 3PT%, but shockingly he has a career-best FT% on the year. It all comes down to his shot and so far that has been… not good. Klay has been a notoriously slow starter the past three seasons. Check these shooting splits the past two out of three seasons, excluding the season he didn’t play until January (2021-22):

2018-19: 43.9/81.0/34.4 vs. 49.6/82.8/45.2
2022-23: 40.2/88.5/37.9 vs. 45.8/87.5/43.3

Of course, we are well past the turn of the new year, but the most recent explosion for Thompson isn’t any surprise to SportsEthos premium subscribers.

He doesn’t have that far to go to rise up to his draft day ADP, but we’re hoping he can surpass that at some point. Either way, the Warriors are locked into this core for as long as they can be, so that bodes well for Thompson ROS. Don’t lose faith just yet, but so far it’s hard to call him anything but a disappointment.

Houston Rockets

Surprise Level: Low

The Rockets had some high hopes entering the season after they gave Fred VanVleet a three-year, $129 million contract and traded for Dillon Brooks. So far it hasn’t gone all too well with a 24-30 record. They’re just 3.5 games out of the Play-In, but the two teams they are chasing are the surging Lakers and Warriors. I’d be hard-pressed to see them catch the Kings or Mavericks as well.

Coach Ime Udoka has complained about defensive lapses and Alperen Sengun has been benched a few times due to this. The team just traded for Steven Adams as they look toward next season as well. Where there’s smoke, right?

Ultimately, Sengun isn’t in danger of losing his role despite the fact that I’m still not buying he’s the center of the future for them. He’s been much better on the offensive end, and that helped them come out of the gate strong. Losing FVV the past few weeks has been a major blow on the offensive front and I think they need to focus on developing Jabari Smith Jr. more intently. It also feels like many have forgotten about Tari Eason, who could be a huge boon for this team on both sides of the ball with his athleticism.

The Rockets need to escape mediocrity, but for now, they’re doing mostly the right things by allowing their young guys to develop on a team that is competitive most nights. Jalen Green remains the biggest question mark here. Can he live up to his billing as a top pick in the draft? Can he prove he can be a consistent scorer, at the very least? Only time will tell but for now, the Rockets will plod along and likely miss the postseason again.

Julius Randle

Surprise Level: Low

Ah, this old chestnut. Randle could be a perennial fixture on a list like this with ease, but people still seemingly fall into the trap by drafting him in the fourth or fifth round. Why?

The shots he takes in the offense are generally low-quality looks, and his affinity for hero ball means he’ll struggle with FG% and turnovers every single time. That’s what we have here and he’s actually turning the ball over at a career-high rate. The counting stats are nice, and he’s actually performing better in many categories than average. Even so, he’s barely in the top 125 players for fantasy on the season.

Randle should continue to be a key player for this Knicks team for better or for worse, but he’s not good in real hoops or fantasy hoops. Let someone else draft him next season if you were duped this time around.

Zach LaVine

Surprise Level: Low

LaVine seemed to have secured his bag and checked out on the Bulls as he was absolutely terrible in the games he managed to play this season before opting into an elective surgery on his foot/ankle. Surely the injury had to play a role, but LaVine doesn’t get a pass here as he was certainly able to play through the issue and just simply chose not to even try. Now the Bulls are moving on without him and winning basketball games, which can’t be a good look for the scoring guard.

The trade market for LaVine’s services was not there for the Bulls at this deadline, and that’s unlikely to change going into the offseason with LaVine unable to take the floor to prove he can be a contributor on a winning NBA team. It’s almost a bygone conclusion that the Bulls would like to move past the LaVine era in Chicago, but he probably needs to suck it up and play for them for a bit longer at the very least.

As for fantasy, this is quite obviously a lost season. It is a good buy-low window in dynasty though for teams looking to win now and looking for a discount on a guy who can be a top-50 producer in a good season. He is an elite three-point shooter and scorer, but the supporting stats have generally been pretty limited. Let’s just be glad this wasn’t another knee injury for LaVine.

Brandon Ingram

Surprise Level: Low

Ingram has been struggling from the free-throw line and really that’s all we need for him to be the guy we drafted in the middle rounds. Everything else is right around where we expect it to be, but for some reason, he’s shooting just 79.4% from the line on some reduced volume compared to previous seasons.

He should be able to figure it out and climb back up a few rounds into the position we want. We aren’t very concerned at all and this is pretty normal for fantasy players. Hopefully, he can regress back to the mean.

Spencer Dinwiddie

Surprise Level: Low

Absolutely no surprise to us, but Dinwiddie’s isolation offense is on par with the inefficiency we see with players like Julius Randle. For some reason, people burned an eighth or ninth-round pick on him, so he ultimately had to make this list.

At least now that he’s joined the Lakers, you can safely drop him without the worry that he’s going to go off.

Scoot Henderson

Surprise Level: Low

Rough sledding for Henderson in the early going, but it’s possible he turns it around. In general, it’s very tough for a rookie to break into the top 125 players, let alone the top 75 which is generally where he was being drafted. That was a massive overpay for a guy not registering standard league value.

The inefficiency is going to be a problem, probably for years, so he’s not a guy we’ll be suggesting anytime soon. Talk to us in 3-4 years.

Darius Garland

Surprise Level: Mid

The injury issues aside, we have to confront the fact that Darius Garland hasn’t been very good when he has played. Most fantasy managers burned a third or fourth-round pick on him and he’s barely scratched the top-100. We’re just two years removed from Garland snagging third place in the Most Improved Player vote and we’re seeing regression in points, assists, rebounds, and three-pointers.

What’s the deal? Well, there’s no denying he got off to a slow start this season, and then he broke his jaw just about a month and a half in. He reportedly lost 12 pounds as he was forced to drink his food through a straw, and when you lose muscle like that it takes quite a bit to return to form.

He should be in for a strong finish to the season, but that likely won’t matter much to Garland owners unless they made savvy moves elsewhere and can sneak into the playoffs. If he can return to his top-50 form from just a season ago, he’ll be extremely valuable for playoff teams and could wind up being a very dangerous addition in many scenarios.

I’m not super convinced he will be stellar to close out the season. The Cavs have been winning games without him, and I would argue that the Cavs look better with Isaac Okoro in the lineup to shore up Donovan Mitchell’s defensive inefficiencies. It’s hard to prove this to you by simply showing you their record because all of Garland’s absence also coincided with Evan Mobley being out of the lineup.

Mitchell is only 6’3″ and having a smaller backcourt usually doesn’t end well for NBA teams. We should watch what the Cavs do in the playoffs closely. If they sit Garland, it could be an admission that this is the case and that they may look to switch up their roster this coming offseason.

Milwaukee Bucks

Surprise Level: Mid

While the Bucks sit in third with a 35-21 record, can someone tell me what in the world is going on in Milwaukee? They’re just 3-7 with Doc Rivers as their head coach and they don’t look anything like the championship contenders we all tagged them as when they traded for Damian Lillard.

I’ll admit that I shooed away the folks who tried to tell me going from Jrue Holiday to Dame would actually make the Bucks worse, but my arguments here are wearing thin. They have a major defense problem that they aren’t going to solve by going from Adrian Griffin to Doc Rivers. The timing of the firing was weird and the reasoning was thin. It takes a long time for a coach to implement their schemes and make a footprint on a basketball team, so giving up just a few months in reeks of negligence.

The playoffs are a different beast, and no one is questioning the talent on this team. Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard are both going to be all-time players, and neither has been particularly bad if we just ignore Dame’s defense, which has always been suspect. The cast of characters around the two stars has also been a bit underwhelming though.

It’s hard to give you stats to show you how disappointing the Bucks have been this season as it’s mostly been on the defensive end. Even in looking at their deflections, opponent FG%, and other key metrics, they aren’t particularly bad, more like middle-of-the-pack. So really this just comes down to our expectations and how they’re falling short.

Trae Young

Surprise Level: Mid

Young can’t seem to stop being a disappointment the last several seasons and the Hawks’ front office seems to be at their wits’ end. Young has had coaches oustered and has continued to struggle to the way officials call games. A second straight season of subpar shooting hasn’t helped fantasy managers and he has seen an uptick in turnovers.

The good news is that he’s averaging the most assists of his career and his points have come up from last season. He should be able to finish the season strong if he can improve a few percentage points from the line and limit his turnovers a bit more effectively. If he can do just those two things, he should rise up to the borderline first-round asset we all envisioned.

Atlanta Hawks

Surprise Level: Mid

The Hawks are still in the mix here as they are sitting in the 10th and final Play-In spot in the Eastern Conference, but they’re also 24-31. The Hawks fired Nate McMillan, reportedly at the behest of Trae Young, and hired Quin Snyder only to put a worse product on the floor.

Snyder has had a chance to stock up on guys that fit his system, like getting rid of John Collins (who’s flourishing in Utah) to start floor-spacer Saddiq Bey. The Hawks are playing with better spacing and a higher pace, but it hasn’t translated to wins and they may even fall short of last year’s paltry 41-41 showing.

And this is all happening with the emergence of Jalen Johnson and backup center Onyeka Okongwu. So it’s extra curious as to why they are struggling to close games.

If you throw away a brutal 4-10 December, this team is about .500 anyway. How do they get to where they were three seasons ago? They may move on from Trae Young, but it’s hard to say if that would ultimately make them a better team.

Memphis Grizzlies

Surprise Level: Mid

Ja Morant’s disappointing season has affected everyone, but it’s easy to forget that this all started with Steven Adams getting injured in October. Quick to follow Morant were injuries to Desmond Bane and Marcus Smart. The Grizzlies opted to pack it in for next season, so anyone with any hope for this season was severely disappointed.

We had our question marks about this team entering the season with no Tyus Jones or Dillon Brooks, and even when they were at full health the product wasn’t all that impressive. It’s a small sample size though and tough to make a final judgment.

The good news for the Grizzlies is that this has allowed for the emergence of Vince Williams Jr., who could finally be the fifth starter the Grizzlies have truly coveted for countless seasons. We should have some excitement for next season for this squad with another piece added when they trade away their great first-round pick (or use it to add a high-end prospect).

Cade Cunningham

Surprise Level: High

Cunningham has the draft pedigree and the skill set to be a top-tier guard in the league, but that hasn’t translated in reality or in fantasy thus far. And before you say, “Well, he’s injured Keith,” this has nothing to do with the games missed. Last year that may have been the case as he reached 12th-round value in just 12 games before going under the knife to repair a stress fracture, but this season he has managed to slog through 44 games and we haven’t seen a marked improvement from his rookie season.

Whether it’s the injury or his abilities, it seems clear at this point that Cunningham can’t be the lead scorer on an NBA team. For fantasy, his issues stem mostly from his lack of boards this season and his continued struggles with turnovers throughout his career. His three-point shooting has also been below league average for his position (33.5% vs. 37.0%). Lastly, the defensive stats have both regressed.

In dynasty leagues you can view this as a buy-low opportunity as Cunnigham could be absolutely superb on a much better team where his only focuses would be distributing, scoring with efficiency, and draining three-pointers. I have confidence he could get there and he may even be able to develop his game to the point that he’s able to be the primary scorer.

He’s a ninth-round player on the season and there’s little reason to believe that will change. We’ll be eyeing his turnover rate, steals rate, blocks rate, and three-point percentage closely over the remaining games.

LaMelo Ball

Surprise Level (Worry Level): High

LaMelo Ball may have been a first or second-round pick in drafts this season, but yet again he’s missing the season with an ankle injury. He’s had major issues now with both ankles, and it’s going to be very difficult to trust him moving forward. When he did play, he was a borderline second-to-third-round guy, but we may not see him again until 2024-25 with the Hornets well out of the playoff hunt.

It’s easy to forget that Melo was an all-star just two seasons ago, but he appeared in 75 games that season. He logged just 36 games last season and only 22 games so far this season. It may be possible that they get him on the court in order to see what he can do with this group of veterans that has been playing motivated (and better) basketball, but it’s equally possible they shut him down again and wait until next year.

The culture in Charlotte is what needs the fixing most, and if we can judge Melo on the videos we see of him peeling out of the arena and blowing through red lights, there are certainly some red flags here as to whether or not the new management for the Hornets views him as the central building block still. He has a lot of growing up to do, and that’s always going to be a concern of mine as I consider drafting him.

Walker Kessler

Surprise Level: High

We’ve slammed our collective heads against the wall all season when it comes to Walker Kessler. Ultimately, we have advised keeping him as he’s sure to live up to the draft capital spent once the handcuffs were out. Trading away Kelly Olynyk finally opened the floodgates for Kessler, who has posted nearly top-25 value since Olynyk was traded.

We would expect a strong finish for Kessler, so hopefully you listened to us as we screamed that you should try to trade for him. He’s still a borderline top-75 fantasy player on the season, even with the limited role. The Jazz should continue to utilize him heavily and his value mostly hinges on blocked shots, but we should all buckle up if we’re going against him in the playoffs.

Jordan Poole

Surprise Level: High

Some tagged Poole as the guy who would lead the league in scoring, but so far he’s been absolutely dreadful and a waste of a draft pick. If you haven’t moved on at this point, I suppose you maintain some kind of hope here but the outlook is quite bleak.

Just 15.6 points on 40.0% shooting is absolutely putrid and his three-pointers are inexplicably down as well. He doesn’t look a thing like his former self on the Warriors, and there’s little hope or time for him to turn it around. I’m of the mindset that you have to cut your losses and get him off your roster pronto, but I can’t deny his ability to absolutely explode. The Wizards don’t really have anyone behind him that they have to play minutes, so he should continue to roll out there with the potential to score big points.

The Wizards are a bad team, but they don’t really care about that as they want a good draft pick.

Mikal Bridges

Surprise Level: High

Bridges has his second-worst FG% and FT% of his career this season, and he’s seen a reduction in his shot volume. It was recently revealed that relieved coach Jacques Vaughn had centered his offense around Ben Simmons and they were going to build around Bridges for next season.

Both of these ideas are pretty bad. Bridges is a fantastic third option on a team, as we saw with the Phoenix Suns, but he’s not the shot creator like other number-one options around the league.

The counting stats have been good with career highs in points, boards, and assists. The most surprising thing, though, has been the deflated defensive numbers. Hopefully, those can come back up, but if he’s going to be a featured offensive weapon, he may not have the energy for that side of the floor as he had in the past.

Brooklyn Nets

Surprise Level: High

See above about coach Vaughn building their offense through Ben Simmons, a player who doesn’t want to score and can’t shoot. That’s quite bold. Of course, he probably envisioned Simmons as a distributor from the center position, which isn’t a bad way to go.

Either way, this team had opportunities to add true talent to the roster by the deadline and they didn’t pull the trigger. Instead, they traded away one of their wings, Royce O’Neale, for second-round picks. Then they added Dennis Schroder as they sent out Spencer Dinwiddie. Those are moves that will stick you in limbo in the short term, though they still could add a star in the offseason.

This team struggles on offense and it’s no surprise. Perhaps the coaching change will lead to a better product, but I find it doubtful.

Josh Giddey

Surprise Level: High

Giddey has moved past his alleged relationship with an underaged girl and he came out the other end without any kind of punishment. Whatever your thoughts are there, it does help us have some confidence in fantasy that he won’t miss any games due to suspension.

All of that circus show aside, it has not been a good basketball season for Giddey. Minutes are gold in fantasy and his have fallen this season compared to his first two seasons. The addition of Gordon Hayward should also worry fantasy managers as Giddey is the guy most likely to lose even more minutes once he joins the fold.

The per-minute production isn’t wildly different from previous seasons, but the minutes have been held in check. The one saving grace here has been the significant increase in FT%, with a gain of a whopping 10%. Of course, the volume for Giddey has been low his whole career thus far, so it’s hard to make a big statement with just that data point.

His three-point percentage has not improved, and that’s the far bigger issue. If Giddey can’t develop an actual three-point shot, he won’t reach the lofty ceiling many had set for him.