What to Expect When Rays Return to Tropicana in 2026 (Part One – Hitters)

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  • By Larry Vannozzi

    Last Updated on December 18, 2025 4:02 pm by Paul Williamson | Published: December 18, 2025

    Do you remember last spring’s predictions about how Tampa Bay Rays hitters and pitchers would be impacted by playing home games at Steinbrenner Field instead of the Hurricane Milton-damaged Tropicana Field?

    Of course you do – you’re a sharp SportsEthos reader! You knew that hitters would flourish by escaping the pitcher-friendly Tropicana Field and playing all their home games in Tampa’s warm and humid summer weather. You also knew that Rays pitchers were expected to suffer for the same reason.

    So, how did those predictions turn out? More importantly, what can we expect in 2026 as the Rays return to Tropicana Field for the first time since the end of the 2024 season?

    Surgeon General’s Warning: We will answer those questions in a moment, but first, a warning. If you’re a statistical guru who requires rigorous statistical analysis, you should find some other SportsEthos article to read. Many of the stats that follow are based on small samples. After all, the Rays played just one season at Steinbrenner so all batters played fewer than 81 games there and all pitchers tossed less than 90 innings. So, buyer beware, but let’s see how various Rays might be impacted by returning to The Trop.

    HITTERS

    I will examine the following hitters: Yandy Díaz, Brandon Lowe, Jonathan Aranda, Taylor Walls and Josh Lowe. Sorry, but I just cannot include Junior Caminero (only 19 career games at Tropicana) or 2025 rookie speedster Chandler Simpson who has never played at The Trop.

    Check out the table below. It shows their 2025 batting averages and slugging percentages at Steinbrenner Field compared to their career numbers at Tropicana. I’ll review highlights of each hitter below the table.

    WordPress Data Table Plugin

    Yandy Díaz

    Díaz is a .298 career hitter at Tropicana (338 games; strong sample size) and batted .307 in 78 games at Steinbrenner Field. That’s a .009 increase in his batting average, or about a 3% increase. Is that significant? Probably not. However, his career slugging percentage of .453 increased to .533 last year and that does seem significant.

    TL;DR… If we reverse last year’s changes, you can expect Díaz to continue being a batting average asset upon returning to Tropicana but look for a decrease in his slugging percentage.

    Brandon Lowe

    Like Díaz above, Brandon Lowe has played over 300 games at Tropicana so we have a solid sample size for consideration. He averaged .244 at The Trop with a .471 slugging percentage. Did you notice how little his number changed last year? He averaged .240 and slugged .456. His Steinbrenner numbers were extremely close to his Tropicana career numbers! Lowe was a fantasy bargain last year (drafted outside the Top 200 but finished within the Top 100) but his good season was more attributed to him missing fewer games than average and not due to escaping Tropicana.

    TL;DR… Leaving Tropicana seemingly did not benefit Lowe so we may see similar consistency when the Rays return to their original home in 2026.

    Jonathan Aranda

    Aranda was having a breakout year in 2025 until suffering a fractured left wrist and missing almost all of August and September. He was activated for the season’s final weekend and appeared to have no ill effects because he had four hits including two homers along with five RBI. He finished the year with a .316 batting average, 14 homers and 59 RBI in 106 games.

    Aranda’s analysis is more complicated than Díaz and Lowe’s because his track history at Tropicana is more brief (just 53 games) and because he missed time at Steinbrenner.  Keep that fact in mind as you review Aranda’s stark difference at both stadiums. He was amazing at Steinbrenner (.345 average and .480 slugging percentage) and far less amazing at Tropicana (.226 average; .409 slugging). Also, note that his BABIP was a blistering .425 at Steinbrenner after averaging a more realistic .290 at Tropicana. Yes, Aranda is a good hitter as he had a .302 average across eight minor league seasons, but repeating his .345 home batting average seems unlikely.

    TL;DR… Although the 27-year-old Aranda’s stats at both ballparks constitute a small sample, at least some of his breakout year success was probably due to the Steinbrenner/outdoor factor. Even some improvement in Aranda’s game might not completely offset the loss of the Steinbrenner effect on his stats.

     

    Taylor Walls

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    December 18, 2025, 4:02 pm