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August 30, 2024, 1:33 pm
With fantasy playoffs nearing, the strategy behind roster management changes, especially without the option to make trades. Star players get dropped, fringe players decide matchups and one unlucky week can ruin an entire season of good work. Particularly in redraft leagues,
your philosophy should change, and I’ll discuss three ways in which you can outmaneuver your competition to win a title.Matchups are everything
In the fantasy regular season matchups are of course relevant, especially from a week to week basis, but generally do not dictate player value. A weekend in which a quality left-handed bat faces multiple tough lefties might influence you to bench, but never to drop him. Now, you should. As your playoffs matchup start, you’ve got to look at the value of the player given his matchups in a vacuum, without other factors.Want to get access to the rest of Nathan’s article? You’ll need to have a FANTASYPASS membership. Click here to learn more and sign up!
Premium Access RequiredAs an example, Brandon Marsh is a very serviceable asset in deeper leagues, but a 10 game stretch facing the Mets and Nationals makes him droppable by mid-September, as he’ll likely face mostly left-handed starters in that stretch. Likewise, Austin Hays, who generally has minimal fantasy value, is worth a look in deeper formats before this period as he’ll benefit from a consistently favorable platoon advantage.
Even targeting players facing bad teams can be effective; keep an eye on the Angels and White Sox, who play each other six times in the last two weeks of the season. Taylor Ward, Logan O’Hoppe, Mickey Moniak and Luis Robert Jr. all warrant a look before those series start.
Look for sustainable hot streaks
Adding and dropping streaky players will always happen during the regular season, with common trends of fringe players remaining on a roster for a few days before being dropped again. Every now and then, someone will stick for longer, and in the vast majority of cases, this is no accident.While many players are capable of a great two or three days to catch the eye of fantasy owners, the real hay is made by identifying players on the waiver wire who have made a material change to better their results, thus providing some hope of sustainability.
As an example, compare David Fry and Miguel Amaya. Fry, an All Star who still has a much higher roster percentage than Amaya, never held impressive peripherals of any sort, particularly related to exit velocity. After a torrid June, he’s had a couple of stretches with productive two or three day periods, but inevitably cooled off since. On the other end, Amaya ditched his leg kick, and has seen his average exit velocity and barrel rate skyrocket since the break, while improving his chase rate drastically as well. As a result, his improvement has been sustainable, and continued to accelerate as time passes.
Don’t be afraid to cut bait
In re-draft, name value does not matter anymore. Players cannot be traded, and you won’t benefit from any of their production next year. All too often, fantasy owners refuse to drop high draft picks, costing valuable roster flexibility that can decide matchups.Obviously dropping an elite 2024 player after a rough week isn’t advisable, but cutting ties with Paul Goldschmidt, Julio Rodriguez or Walker Buehler for a surging asset could certainly be worth it. My biggest word of advice when deciding whether to cut a star is to choose your battles. In a league with four position players on your bench, choosing one or two struggling players to ride out could be harmless, but sticking with five of the sort isn’t sensible, and can easily ruin a week. Use a combination of matchups and peripherals to prioritize who to keep, and get rid of the rest.
And when in doubt, just stream whoever is playing the White Sox.
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