1.    Marvin Harrison Jr. (ADP WR10)

In Kyler Murray’s last 2 healthy seasons (2020 and 2021), he averaged nearly 4,000 passing yards and 25 touchdowns. His number one option in those seasons was Deandre Hopkins who averaged 14.4 fantasy points per game and finished as the WR6 and WR10 on a per game basis with a 30% target share in 2020. Kyler may not be viewed as an elite quarterback, but he is more than capable of supporting a top fantasy WR and has no hesitations about peppering his WR1 with targets; Hopkins ranked second in the NFL in targets in 2020 with 160. Marvin Harrison Jr. enters the 2024 season as the clear alpha in receiving room that consists of Michael Wilson, Zay Jones and Greg Dortch. He replaces Hollywood Brown and Rondale Moore who combined for 30% of the teams’ targets in 2023. No wide receiver on the Cardinals’ current roster commanded over an 11% target share in 2023 and neither James Conner nor Trey Benson are premiere receiving backs. Trey McBride had a breakout year in 2023 with 815 yards on 81 receptions and 106 targets, but still only recorded a target share of 19.5% that was propped up due to some late season injuries. Harrison’s competition for targets is minimal and as such he is more capable of receiving nearly a 30% target share as a rookie. Although Kyler is known as a running quarterback, he was still 7^th in the NFL in passing attempts in 2020. If Kyler were to maintain that passing volume and Harrison were to receive a 30% target share, he would find himself with upwards of 175 targets, which would have ranked second in the NFL in the 2023 season behind only CeeDee Lamb.

Marvin Harrison was selected 4^th in this year’s NFL draft and is widely considered the most complete WR prospect since Calvin Johnson. Harrison is 6’4, averaged nearly 100 yards and a touchdown per game his past two seasons at Ohio State, and received the 2023 Biletnikoff award for the nation’s top receiver. Ohio State offensive coordinator Brian Hartline said that Harrison is the best WR he has ever coached, which is a strong statement given the recent talent out of Ohio State that includes Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, Jaxson Smith-Ngiba and Terry McLaurin. All of this is just a simple way to say that Marvin Harrison Jr. is an incredible player and should be able to perform at an elite level the second he steps onto an NFL field.

Harrison is being discounted because we have not yet seen him play at the NFL level. While this is true, it should not be viewed as a major risk as we have seen multiple rookie receivers have tremendous success in the past few seasons. Justin Jefferson finished his rookie season as the WR6 in 2020 on 125 targets and Jamarr Chase finished as the WR5 in 2021 on 128 targets; neither of those players received even close to targets Harrison projects to see next season. Clearly, there is precedent for elite rookie WRs to produce in fantasy football immediately. Marvin Harrison’s ADP isn’t cheap (WR10), but I still think this is an incredible discount given the receivers being taken in Harrison’s range. Harrison may not have proven yet that he can produce at the NFL level but isn’t that better than drafting players around Harrison’s ADP that have already proven to “not” produce at an elite level for fantasy such as Garrett Wilson (ADP WR8) and Drake London (ADP WR12). Somehow though, these players are perceived as safer despite being less talented and in far riskier situations with fewer projected targets. When comparing Harrison to Wilson, Adams, or Olave, I think the choice is clear: take Harrison every time. Harrison has a much higher floor than is being considered given his projected targets and his upside is that of a top-three receiver if he can produce as efficiently as Chase and Jefferson did in their rookie seasons. I would happily take Harrison any time he falls to the second round.

2. Michael Pittman Jr. (ADP WR18)

Michael Pittman Jr. finished the 2023 season as the WR16 (Weeks 1-17) scoring over 9.5 half ppr fantasy points in 12 of 15 games. He ranked 10^th in the NFL in target share at 28.6% and finished 9^th in overall targets with 150. Pittman also finished last season with only 4 touchdowns, which was the fewest of any receiver in the top-20. Clearly, many are worried that the return of Anthony Richardson will have a negative impact on Pittman’s fantasy value relative to Gardner Minshew, but this makes little sense because it is predicated on the assumption that Minshew was actually good last season. In 2023, the Colts recorded only 18 passing touchdowns which was 25^th in the NFL. Do we really think Richardson will be significantly worse than Minshew who threw just 15 touchdowns and averaged 206 yards per game. The sample size for Richardson was tiny, but his yards per game and touchdowns were consistent with those of Minshew in his 2.5 games played. Richardson was also a rookie and it’s safe to expect significant improvement in year two. Right now, it appears Pittman is being drafted at his floor (ADP WR18), but let’s also consider his upside, which is recording far more touchdowns in a much-improved offense.

Shane Steichen is entering his second season as the Head Coach of the Indianapolis Colts. For those who aren’t familiar with Steichen, he previously served as the Offensive Coordinator for the Eagles in 2021 and 2022. Prior to Steichen’s arrival, the Eagles were the 24^th ranked offense in the NFL in terms of yardage. In 2021, the Eagles jumped to the 13^th ranked offense and in Steichen’s second season, the Eagles absolutely exploded finishing the season as the 3^rd best offense in the NFL. In 2020, Hurts was still a raw dual-threat Quarterback prospect that completed only 50% of his passes. Steichen helped turn him into one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. In 2022, Hurts had 35 total touchdowns and was able to support two top-10 fantasy wide receivers in AJ Brown and Devonta Smith. For those skeptical that the Colts can mirror the Eagles trajectory, keep in mind that the Eagles were also a top-five rushing offense in 2022. Even if Richardson and Jonathon Taylor make the Colts a run-heavy offense in 2024, it doesn’t inhibit the fact that Richardson can also support a legitimate passing attack. Prior to hiring Steichen, the Colts were the 27^th ranked offense in 2022 and in 2023 they jumped to the 15^th best offense. Now doesn’t that sound familiar? Let’s see what happens in 2024 but I expect the Colts offense to be much improved again and when they are, I feel confident about Pittman’s chances to record more than four touchdowns and smash his ADP of WR18.

Also, for those concerned about the health of starting QB Anthony Richardson, they should sleep easy. Joe Flacco was signed this past offseason as the Colts backup quarterback. Flacco may be old, but he absolutely slings it; just ask Amari Cooper. With Flacco as the Brown’s starter last season, Amari Cooper was the WR5 in weeks 13 – 17. Michael Pittman is in safe hands this season. Pittman is an incredibly safe pick given his projected target share, but he also has far more upside than is being considered if the Colts emerge as a premiere NFL offense in 2024.

Want to get access to Joshua’s article? You’ll need to have a SportsEthos NFL FantasyPass membership. Click here to learn more and sign up!
Premium Access Required