The WR Age Cliff – Buyer Beware

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  • Last Updated on July 30, 2025 2:14 pm by Jon Mosales | Published: July 30, 2025

    Age cliffs in football come fast and sometimes without warning.  The key is to be early. Know who to fade and when to know you’re holding on too long, hoping a player can find the fountain of youth and regain his past glory.  It’s not an exact science, but we can get pretty close to knowing when to pull chute and when to hold on for one last ride.  Age might be just a number, but when it comes to fantasy football, the sweet spot abandoning ship for WRs is around 31 years old.  It doesn’t matter the talent level, the name or the pedigree.  The math says once they hit that invisible age barrier, the odds are their production is going to fall off.  Let’s look at some trends and some players who have hit the cliff and more importantly the ones who are headed there.

     

    Lets first look at a pair former superstar WRs in Julio Jones and Amari Cooper and track their decline

    Julio Jones 

    2018 – WR 2 (Age 29), 2019 – WR2 – (Age 30), 2020 – WR 52 (Age 31)

    Amari Cooper

    2022, WR10, 2023 – WR20 (Age 29), 2024 – WR63 (Age 30)

    These two WRs weren’t on the same level, but you can see Jones was able to still thrive at age 30 while Cooper became unrosterable last season.  It’s not just the production that falls off, it’s their bodies as well as Jones played at least 15 games six seasons in a row and then never played that many again.  Cooper trailed off a little earlier than expected and even a trade to BUF from CLE couldn’t save his career.  You never know exactly when the floor will fall out, but there is nothing worse than drafting an aging WR and then starting him half the season while you foolish wait for him to get back on track.  That was what killed fantasy GMs last season with Tyreek Hill as you had to start him even without Tua Tagovailoa and then of course when he came back.  If you used a top-five pick on him last season, you probably didn’t make the playoffs.  Now everyone is telling you it was just a one-off and he’s still just as fast and explosive.  Don’t fall for it.

     

    Tyreek Hill 

    2022 – WR3, 2023 – WR2, 2024 – WR21, 2024 (Age 30), 2025 – (Age 31) ???

    Here is the thing.  When WRs get close to aging out, there will be a litany of excuses for why their production has tailed off.  Hill was dealing with a wrist injury all season and also had to deal with a backup QB who couldn’t get him the ball.  You could make the argument that last season was just a one-off and because he still has his speed, he will regain his place on WR Mount Rushmore, but I’m not too sure.  He only had three games over 100 yards and had almost half the yards from the season before.  Now his ADP has fallen off to the WR14, but that’s still a high price if the he continues to decline.  Why take that risk because even if he hasn’t lost a step, his body might no longer be able to withstand the rigors of an NFL season.  Give me Jaxon Smith-Njigba or Garrett Wilson over Hill every day of the week.

    Cooper Kupp

    2022 – WR 24, 2023 – WR41, 2024 – WR 40, (Age 31) 2025 – (Age 32) – ???

    Kupp is one of most diligent WRs in NFL history when it comes to taken care of his body, but he’s now played in 12 or less games in three straight seasons.  His ability to separate last season was non-existent and now he’s gone to a worse offense with a worse QB.  His ADP of WR47 might look juicy, but I don’t think he’s got anything left in the tank.  He still might be able to get some cheap TDs, but I’d rather shoot the moon on a rookie WR or up-and-comer like Josh Downs or Ricky Pearsall.

    Davante Adams

    2022 – WR2, 2023 – WR11, 2024 – WR14 (Age 31), 2025 – (Age 32) – ???

    A lot of people are still riding Adams off into the sunset as he still looked great last season, but the secret sauce was the insane volume as the Jets were one of the most pass-happy teams in the league.  We have seen the Rams support two fantasy WRs, but at their core they will target Puka Nacua first and Adams will have to eat leftovers.  He only caught 85 of 141 targets which tells me he was having issues getting open and now he’s on his third team in three seasons.  It all adds up to a stayaway especially because his ADP of a top-20 WR isn’t reflecting his age and possible decline.  Terry McLaurin, Marvin Harrison Jr. and DJ Moore are much safer options who still possess nice upside.  Adams is the perfect example of a WR who looks like they still have it, but is right over the invisible age cliff that comes for everyone.  I expect a huge downturn season where he looks more like Kupp by Week 8.

    Mike Evans

    2022 – WR16, 2023 – WR5, 2024 – WR9 (31), 2025 (Age 32) – ???

    Here is another WR that you can’t fade….or can you.  Evans is the model of consistency with 1000 yards and 10 TDs like clockwork.  There were signs of decline as he only had more than 65 yards in one game before he got hurt in Week 7.  Evans looks like he will get 1000 yards forever, but I am very confident he doesn’t hit the mark this season and his ADP of WR17 is lying to you.  The Buccs have a deep receiving core and while they will hesitate to move on from the former superstar, it will happen and it could simply be due to injury.  I know it seems improbable that these WRs will just fade into the abyss, but there is proven track record of it happening and you never want to bet against Father Time.  Throw in the fact that young Buccs ready to slide in, I will be grabbing Jalen McMillian and Emeka Egbuka way later and reaping the rewards.

    Calvin Ridley

    2022 – 0 Games, 2023, WR17, 2024 – WR27 (Age 30), 2025 – (Age 31) WR ???

    This one is tough because Ridley missed an entire season with a suspension, so maybe his age isn’t as big a factor, plus he hasn’t missed a game in two seasons.  His body appears to be holding up and he had 48% of TEN’s air yards with terrible QB play.  With a better o-line and a much better QB, there could be one last beast WR season akin to Adams last season.  Ridley is right on the cusp, but I feel there is value in his ADP of WR30.  He’s the sole alpha WR on the team and if Cam Ward is the real deal, there is a great chance he goes well over 1000 yards after barely eclipsing the mark the last two seasons.  I will target Ridley is the price is right, but the age scales are slowing starting to tip.

    Stefon Diggs

    2022 – WR4, 2023 – WR10, 2024 – WR67 (Age 31), 2025 – (Age 32) – ???

    I’m honestly shocked that his ADP isn’t reflecting his age and major knee injury rehab.  Diggs is on his third team in as many seasons and keeps getting a downgrade in situation.  On paper, it looks like he could be the WR1, but he’s going to need a ramp up and he’s not good enough to start or even hold onto for weeks on weeks.  Even if he miraculously is back to his former self, the injury risk combined with the age cliff makes him one of the least desirable WRs on the entire board.  Give me Jayden Reed or even Matthew Golden 10 times out of 10.  I could be wrong, but I won’t be and I wouldn’t take Diggs as the WR 70.

    Deandre Hopkins

    2022 – WR47, 2023 – WR22, 2024 – WR46 (Age 32), 2025 – (Age 33) – ???

    Hopkins has already shown that he’s done.  He’s the WR69 and again has been shuffled around the league recently.  The move to BAL looks promising, but he doesn’t have the burst anymore.  His YPC dropped almost three yards and he’s living off reputation.  This is an easy fade, but there’s a chance he has a few good weeks just because the BAL offense is so explosive.  I still would never draft him, but if Rashod Bateman gets hurt, there’s a chance he scraps some top-50 production for a stretch.

    Look, I’m not saying every older WR in the NFL is going to fall-off at the same time.  Sometimes exceptions to the rule happen, but the rule still stands.  The best approach isn’t to pick and choose, but just fade the entire lot and win on aggregate.  Fantasy football is a young man’s game and while there is risk targeting players without a track record, at least the trajectory on their careers is headed in the right direction.  In a similar way that rookie WRs became all the rage over the last couple of years, I think the reverse is going to be the law of the land by next season.  Be ahead of the curve and let the rest of your league make the mistakes.

     

    July 30, 2025, 2:13 pm