The world isn’t short on fantasy opinions and most of them aren’t backed up by anything other than false bravado and twitter highlight videos.  Brian Shade has been deep in the lab all offseason perfecting his own projection model to give everyone who uses SportsEthos Fantasy Football Guide the most significant edge for fantasy football that we have ever offered.  This is the real deal and by the end of the season, it will be born out how truly accurate this model is.  This is the best opportunity to get in on the ground floor and build the perfect fantasy team and leave the rest of your league wondering what happened.

To further explain the thought process behind the model.  Risk/upside is mediated by averages therefore someone who could have 200 or 100 points will be inline with a safe 150 with very little upside to go higher than 150.  It’s a great way to study crowded depth charts and get a better grasp of where the opportunities are likely to flow.  This is only the first preseason version and it will be updated before the season starts.  The only real caveat is that this is best used in positional comparisons, not overall considering QBs will be the highest point scorers, but not necessarily the most valuable players, especially in single-QB leagues.  The projected numbers are based on last year’s offensive data and a regression to the mean.  For rookies, yard-per-catch and yards-per-carry numbers are averages from last year with regression. Everyone else is last years numbers with regression based on offensive projected output.  Attacking fantasy with your gut can work, but flanking the rest of your league with data, gut and knowledge is surefire way to stay two steps ahead of the competition.

UPDATED THROUGH ITEMS POSTED: August 26, 9:54 a.m. ET

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