The PGA Tour returns after a wild conclusion to the Charles Schwab Challenge saw Emiliano Grillo defeat Adam Schenk in a playoff to return to victory. This was Grillo’s second career PGA Tour victory with the first coming over seven years ago on what was his first career PGA Tour start. Grillo stood on the 18^th tee with a two-stroke advantage, but an errant tee shot into the ditch right of the fairway (in which running water carried the ball for an extended amount of time) caused Grillo to end his round with a double bogey. He was able to hold off Schenk on the second hole of the playoff.

This week the Tour heads to one of the more prestigious non-major events on the calendar with the Memorial Tournament. This event usually draws a strong field and that is especially the case this year as it is one of the elevated events. This will be the final prep for the U.S. Open in two weeks time for those not electing to take the trip up north for next week’s RBC Canadian Open.

This tournament has a rich history of champions including five-time winner Tiger Woods. In recent memory this course has been dominated by Jon Rahm and Patrick Cantlay. Jon Rahm won the 2020 edition and was well on his way to a repeat performance in 2021, but was informed he tested positive for Covid after walking off the 18^th green at the conclusion of the third round. Cantlay was the main benefactor of the forced Rahm W/D and defeated Collin Morikawa in a playoff. Cantlay also was the victor in 2019, while also recording a 4^th in 2018 and a 3rd place last year (which was won by Billy Horschel).

The Course

Muirfield Village Golf Club located in Dublin, OH is the site of this week’s event. Also known as “Jack’s Place” as the course was the creation of the great Jack Nicklaus. Nicklaus is from the area (Columbus, OH) and named the course to pay homage to the site of his first Open Championship victory at Muirfield links in Scotland. The course has hosted the event since 1976 and the winner is greeted on the 18^th green by the legend Nicklaus himself.

Muirfield recently had a renovation after the 2020 edition of the tournament that saw the course lengthened by 100 yards and new greens complexes installed. To date, the renovations have not seemed to have a major impact on the type of golfer that has contended here, but it has only been a two-year sample, so time will tell.

Muirfield is a tough and challenging par 72 that now plays slightly over 7,500 yards. Off the tee will require smart, precise shots from golfers as there is long, penal rough for those wayward with their tee shots. That being said the fairways are fairly wide by Tour standards and while it is a long course, accuracy off the tee will be more important than length.

The greens at Muirfield are once again Bentgrass greens that play fast. Around the green is penalizing for those that do not hit their green in regulation with more long rough to contend with. The combination of fast greens and long rough around the greens, makes getting up and down a difficult challenge for even the best scramblers on tour.

Here is a link to a flyover of the course:

The Field

As mentioned earlier, this event never had any difficulty attracting the top players in the game year in and year out. This year the tournament was designated as one of the elevated events, which ensured another top tier field. There still are some notables taking a pass on this week that include Max Homa, Tony Finau, Tommy Fleetwood, and Justin Rose.

Like last week, this is an invitational style event, so the field is limited to 120 players with the traditional cutline of T65 or better advancing to the weekend.

Key Stats

In addition to the stats listed below this week, I will look at course history as well. Per DataGolf, Muirfield is the 12^th most predictive annual course on Tour.

Here are the key stats I am considering when building my lineups this week.

1. SG: Approach– Iron play is always on this list and forever will be. It is the most correlated long-term stat with success. A dig into past top performers at this course show that approach play is far and away the biggest indicator of which golfers succeed here.
2. GIR Gained– I briefly touched on this earlier, but scrambling percentage at this course is much lower than the average Tour stop. This puts an extra emphasis on selecting golfers who have a knack for hitting greens.
3. Proximity 175+– As is the case with most long and difficult courses, a majority of approach shots will be made with long irons. There is no break on the par 3s here as well with all four of them playing over this yardage.
4. T2G- I want to look at some recent form whenever the Tour heads to a difficult venue. While yes, it is golf and weird things happen all the time, I want to look at golfers that have a complete game going right now.
5. Bogey Avoidance- Whenever the expected cut line is projected to be over par, I look to roster golfers who have the ability to grind out pars and keep from blowing up.

Follow me on Twitter @mlafem10 for additional thoughts as the week goes on and I’d be happy to help out with any lineup questions you have. Let’s make some money!

Round 1 Props

Thrive Contest Plays for Thursday’s Round 1 Action

Jon Rahm 69.5 Stokes: LESS (110 PTS)- Jon Rahm has experienced tremendous success at Muirfield (10^th, 1^st, 1^st*-led by 6 strokes after 3 rounds but was forced to w/d due to Covid). Didn’t have his best stuff at Oak Hill, but I expect Rahm to come out of the gates strong on Thursday. Has gone under this number in seven of his last eleven rounds and the weather (at the moment) doesn’t appear to be posing much of a threat.

Cam Young 4.5 Birdies: LESS (80 PTS)- This number seems a bit ambitious considering how difficult the course plays. Since his 7^th at the Masters, Young has been rather average with a 51^st at Harbour Town and a 59^th at the Wells Fargo, followed by a missed cut at Oak Hill. Bentgrass is his worst putting surface by quite a wide margin and I just don’t see it with Young this week or this number.

Sahith Theegala 2.5 Birdies: MORE (75 PTS)- Unlike the Cam Young number, this is much more reasonable. While Theegala makes me a little nervous with how wild he can be off the tee, there is no denying he has been playing great this year. 2/2 in made cuts at this event with a 32^nd in 2021 and a 5^th last year, Theegala has proven he can fill up the card with birdies (and bogeys). Sahith has eclipsed this number in 6/8 career rounds at Muirfield, so fire this one up with confidence.

Props Record YTD

37-17

DFS Top Tier Play

Rory McIlroy

Salary: $10,600

This looks like an interesting buy low spot for Rory. Missed cuts at the PLAYERS and the Masters paired with a very underwhelming performance at the Wells Fargo (somewhere he has dominated in his career) left a lot to be desired. A 7^th at the PGA Championship without his best stuff was a positive sign to me. Rory certainly has the off the tee and long iron game to compete at Muirfield. Sure, he doesn’t have the course history of a Rahm or Cantlay and doesn’t have the form of Scheffler coming in, but Rory still checks a lot of the boxes I am looking for this week. He’s first in the field in SG: Total on long, difficult courses, owns four career top ten finishes at this event, scores well on difficult par 4s, and Bentgrass his best putting surface. In tournaments, I am looking to catch Rory at lower ownership before everyone wants to play him next week as two-time defending champion in Canada.

Others Considered: Justin Thomas ($9,200), Jon Rahm ($11,000)

DFS Mid Tier Play

Hideki Matsuyama

Salary: $8,700

While this play won’t be sneaking up on anybody, I just love how Hideki sets up here. Matsuyama is one of the best iron players in the world (especially with his long irons) and does most of his best work in difficult scoring conditions. Obviously, the putter can get him into trouble as he lost five strokes putting here in 2020 and over nine (nine!) strokes putting here in 2021. Prior to losing over five strokes with the putter at the PGA Championship, Hideki was on a nice little roll, gaining with the flat stick in six of seven events. I am willing to bet on the tee-to-green game of Matsuyama and roll the dice that he is not catastrophically bad on the greens this week. I do expect him to garner some ownership this week along with Rickie Fowler and Corey Conners in this range, so for tournaments, just be careful who you include in your lineup with Hideki. If you are looking for a low owned pivot with upside in this range, Jordan Spieth has excellent course history and burned everyone last week at Colonial.

Others Considered: Jordan Spieth ($8,900), Keegan Bradley ($7,800)

DFS Value Play

Justin Suh

Salary: $6,900

There isn’t a whole lot of statistical data to back this play up. Suh is not going to pop in any models that you make, but sometimes you have to bet on talent and that is what I am electing to do here. Suh was part of the outstanding rookie class that included Viktor Hovland, Collin Morikawa, and the since LIV departed Matthew Wolff. While success hasn’t come as quickly for Suh as his peers, things are starting to point in the right direction for him. A 26^th at the PGA Championship was followed up by a 16^th at Colonial last week. He has also flashed upside with a 6th at the PLAYERS and a 5^th at the Nicklaus-designed Honda at PGA National. After the season started with three consecutive missed cuts in the fall, Suh has been a cut making machine having only missed one (Byron Nelson) in 17 starts since the rough start. His iron play has been improving as of late and rates in the top 30 of the field on difficult par 4s to go along with his strong putting prowess. I think Suh is likely to cost more than $6,900 in these types of fields in the near future, so I want to get in early.

Others Considered: Kurt Kitayama ($7,400), Joseph Bramlett ($6,900)

Betting Card

Justin Thomas +3000

Hideki Matsuyama +4500

Sahith Theegala +6000

Adam Scott +6500

Justin Suh +30000

Lineup Builder