The PGA Tour concluded the Hawaii swing last week with another longshot winner in Grayson Murray at the Sony Open. This week we head to California for The American Express and it also marks the return of course rotations. There are three courses in play this week; The Nicklaus Course, La Quinta Country Club and The Stadium Course. Each golfer will get a crack at each course and then the top 65 and ties will return to The Stadium Course on Sunday to crown a champion. Some things to keep in mind for this event:

1. The Stadium Course is the only one with ShotLink data available, so it makes it tough exactly to model out course fits this week, but this course is the most important as it is played twice.
2. This is a Pro-Am event, making the rounds much slower paced than normal. That isn’t so much a concern, but the pin locations are typically easier as there are so many amateurs participating, making this event an absolute field day for the pros.

I will be keeping an eye on the weather as we get closer to lineup lock, so be sure to follow me on Twitter (X) @mlafem10 where I post additional information and am always available for questions that you might have.

Course Notes

Switching it up a little and going to make this section a little more digestible than a couple of paragraphs. Here are the key things to know about each of the courses.

Stadium Course

-Par: 72

-Yardage: 7,187

-Pete Dye design and was the 9^th easiest course on Tour last season

-While easy, there is danger with tons of bunkers (90 total) and can cause some big numbers as well as 7 holes with water danger. Good golf is rewarded here, but bad shots can be absolutely punished.

-Hardly any rough to speak of, more desert-style golf

-Small greens, Poa trivials, making for smoother putting surfaces. Nothing too tricky here putting wise

Nicklaus Course

-Par: 72

-Yardage: 7,147

-Jack Nicklaus design and was the 5^th easiest course on Tour last season

-Hardly any rough to speak of, more desert-style golf

-Slow greens, Poa trivials, making for smoother putting surfaces. Nothing too tricky here putting wise

La Quinta Country Club

-Par: 72

-Yardage: 7,060

-Frank and Lawrence Hughes design and was the 3rd^th easiest course on Tour last season

-Hardly any rough to speak of, more desert-style golf

-Small, slow greens, Poa trivials, making for smoother putting surfaces. Nothing too tricky here putting wise

Here is a look at the Pete Dye Stadium Course:

The Field

This week is the first real full-field event of the season with 156 players. The field is pretty strong featuring the likes of Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele and Patrick Cantlay. We also get the season debuts for Justin Thomas, Shane Lowry and the return of Daniel Berger who has been out for about 18 months due to a back injury.

No open qualifiers this week. Denny McCarthy and Seamus Power are the only withdrawals at the time of this writing with Bronson Burgoon and Erik Barnes replacing them.

Key Stats

Here are some of the key stats I am considering when building my lineups this week.

1. SG: Approach– Iron play is always on this list and forever will be. This course is an aim-and-fire-at-the-pin type of course. Especially with the Pro-Am nature of this event and the relative lack of rough to cause danger.
2. Short Courses- We know all three of these courses are on the shorter side of things. It is not super heavily weighted, but there are some guys who are noticeably better on shorter courses and it should be considered.
3. SG: P (Poa)– Three of the easiest ten courses on Tour, putting will be essential to keeping pace with the field this week. I focused on 5-10 and 10-15 feet specifically, as that is typically where players are putting from in scoring opportunities.
4. Pete Dye History- There is a certain style that goes into most Pete Dye designs. Some guys really excel at his courses and the setup really fits their eye. This is more of a tiebreaker type of stat, but is certainly worth looking at.
5. Birdies or Better Gained- You could also look at eagles gained as well, but that tends to be a little noisy. I also like to look at birdies or better gained in easy conditions, because that is what we are dealing with this week.

DFS Top Tier Play

Xander Schauffele

Salary: $10,900

There is a “big 3” in play this week with Scottie Scheffler, Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele being the class of this field and being priced as such. Scheffler is obviously the best of the best in this field, but his putting woes have shown to still be an issue and in an event like this, I’d rather pivot elsewhere. Cantlay and Xander have a very similar profile to me as they both excel on the West Coast; they crush easier courses as well as Pete Dye designs and they are phenomenal iron players who can putt. I am going to play the ownership game here and go with Xander as I think the only reason Cantlay is getting more ownership is he is slightly cheaper and has an immaculate course history, which I am not concerning myself with all that much this week. Xander had an excellent season statistically last year, even though he wasn’t able to close any tournaments out and was mired in the top 10 of most events (eight total and already one this season at The Sentry). Given the relative strength of this field, I want to be taking my shots up top because even though we have seen some incredible long shots pull out the victory here, the cream usually rises to the top and I expect Xander to be a major factor come Sunday.

Others Considered: Tom Kim ($9,900), Sungjae Im ($10,100)

DFS Mid-Tier Play

Stephan Jaeger

Salary: $7,900

17 cuts made in a row and 21 of his past 22 events. Now that I jinxed it, Jaeger has proven to be one of the most consistent players on tour over the last year or two. Yes, there is only one top ten in that span, but that is okay when he is priced at $7,900. I don’t like playing him much in weaker fields when he is one of the highest-priced options because of the lack of true winning upside (so far), but 9 of those 21 made cuts were finishes inside the top 25. Jaeger will struggle to accumulate a ton of ownership this week due to course history darlings Andrew Putnam, Adam Hadwin and Taylor Montgomery all in his price range. From a statistical standpoint, there is a lot to like about Jaeger at this event. He absolutely crushes par 5s (ranks sixth in the field on easy par 5s over the past 50 rounds) and with up to 16 available this week, Jaeger should be able to take advantage and make some noise. Part of the reason for his success on such holes is his exceptional long iron play where he ranks 13^th on approaches over 200 yards. We have seen Jaeger have his best results at birdie fest type events (9^th at Rocket Mortgage and 11^th at Byron Nelson last season) and with plenty of birdies out there this week, I like Jaeger to continue the cut streak and be an excellent candidate for some eagle opportunities and birdie streaks.

Others Considered: Andrew Putnam ($8,000), Shane Lowry ($8,700)

DFS Value Play

K.H. Lee

Salary: $7,400

Lee isn’t going to pop in any models as a great value due to the inconsistent nature of his game, but there are some promising signs that has me interested in Lee this week. Last week at the Sony Open, Lee was lights out with his irons, gaining over five strokes to the field in that department and over seven tee-to-green. Unfortunately for Lee, his putter was a letdown, muting his performance to a T-30 finish (although he was able to clinch all four rounds under 70 bonus). Outside of his two wins in Texas (which were both birdie fests), we have seen Lee do his best work on the West Coast recently with a strong 7^th place finish at the comparable Shriners Children’s Open at TPC Summerlin and a 14^th at the Fortinet over the fall swing. Not a soul is going to be playing Lee this week, so I like taking a chance on a guy showing good form with his irons and just hoping the putter can cooperate enough to take advantage who was shown winning upside in his career.

Others Considered: Matthew NeSmith ($6,700), Alejandro Tosti ($6,800)

Betting Card

Sungjae Im +2500

Tom Kim +3000

Andrew Putnam +8000

K.H. Lee +15000

Sam Ryder +20000

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