Major season is complete as Brian Harman authored one of the best putting performances in major championship history to victory and become the champion golfer of the year. Credit to Harman as he was able to build a substantial 5 stoke lead after Friday and hang on all weekend and hold off weekend charges from the likes of Cameron Young, Jon Rham, Rory McIlroy and Viktor Hovland. While the event did not bring the drama down the stretch that is typically craved for in majors thanks to the brilliance of Harman, it was fun to see the intricacies of Royal Liverpool and the different strategies that all the golfers deployed to get around the course.

This week we return to the United States for the 5^th edition of the 3M Open played at TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, MN. We only have this week and the Wyndham Championship next week for golfers to earn a spot in the FedExCup Playoffs by finishing in the top 70 of the FedExCup standings. Players have been accumulating points since last fall and it all comes down to these next two weeks for a lot of these guys.

This is a full 156 player field with the top 65 (and ties) advancing to the weekend.

We should expect to certainly see some more scoring compared to what we say at Royal Liverpool, but I wouldn’t consider this event a birdie fest. There is a lot of places where golfer’s rounds can go off the rails here with all of the water in play. Much like the moniker of Minnesota suggests “Land of 10,000 Lakes” TPC Twin Cities has the third most water danger holes with 13 of the 18 giving golf balls the opportunity of a wet landing. Expect a lot of birdies and a lot of double bogeys or worse to be carded this week.

The Course

TPC Twin Cities was designed by Arnold Palmer back in 2000 and until 2018, was a regular stop on the Champions Tour schedule.

Playing as a par-71 at 7,431 yards, TPC Twin Cities ranked as the 20^th easiest course on tour last season. In addition to all the water, golfers will need to contend with 4” Bluegrass roughs, although the fairways are fairly wide here. While the yardage is long on the scorecard, the course doesn’t play as long due to the high elevation in Minnesota.

TPC Twin Cities plays as a traditional par-71 with three par-5s, four par-3s and eleven par-4s. The par-4s have a variety of length to them as there are two that play under 400 yards and two that play over 500 yards. As is the case with most courses, the three par-5s typically play as the three of the four easiest holes on the course (each yielding birdies at least 30% of the time, with the 593-yard 12^th hole playing the easiest, surrendering a birdie at a nearly 50% rate). Each of the par-5s have an eagle rate over 2% as well.

Golfers will need to be dialed in with their long irons as nearly 50% of all approach shots come from over 150 yards. GIR rates are fairly high here despite the high amount of long approach shots, due to the generous sizes of the greens

Greens will be similar to what we have seen in the summer months with pure Bentgrass. The greens are typically pretty fast and with high temperatures forecasted this week, I expect them to bake out and get even faster.

Here is a link to a flyover of the course:

The Field

As is standard for the week after a major (especially one that is across the pond), the field this week is not the best of the best. However, I think this is a pretty solid field with a lot of quality depth.

11 of the top 50 in the OWGR are playing this week headlined by the spokesman for Cameron Young, Tony Finau, Hideki Matsuyama, Sungjae Im, and Justin Thomas who is fighting for a spot in the FedExCup Playoffs as well as a spot on the upcoming Ryder Cup squad.

As of this writing, note that Luke List, David Lingmerth, and Akshay Bhatia have withdrawn after originally being listed in the field.

Daniel Gale, Alex Gaugert, Noah Hofman, and Kaito Ohishi are your Monday qualifiers for the week.

Key Stats

Here are the key stats I am considering when building my lineups this week.

1. SG: Approach– Iron play is always on this list and forever will be. It is the most correlated long-term stat with success. With the omnipresent water lurking on nearly every hole, good approaches will be needed to stay dry.
2. SG: BS– Ball striking is a combination of off the tee and approach play, so adding in this to the stat model is a way to get overweight in both categories.
3. SG: OTT– Strong off the tee play is paramount for success here. Golfers don’t necessarily have to be a “bomber” (although that helps), but those who spray it off the tee will find a lot of penalty stokes.
4. Par 4 Scoring- With eleven total par 4s and four of the five toughest holes being par 4s, I am looking for golfers who aren’t going to give away strokes on these holes.
5. SG: P(Bentgrass)- While this certainly hasn’t been a birdie fest the last couple years, golfers will still need to make a good number of putts to find their way up the leaderboard. I will additionally look at those who do well on fast putting surfaces since the greens here are quick.

Follow me on Twitter @mlafem10 for additional thoughts as the week goes on and I’d be happy to help out with any lineup questions you have. Let’s make some money!

DFS Top Tier Play

Hideki Matsuyama

Salary: $10,000

Hideki has been remarkably consistent this year, but the narrative around him is that he is aboard the struggle bus. I’m not sure I really agree with that basis as he has finished inside the top 30 in eight of his past ten events (with the others being a MC and a 32^nd). The other side of that argument is that there is only one top ten in that span, and that came all the way back in March at THE PLAYERS (5^th). What has me excited about Hideki for this week is how dialed in he has been with his irons as of late. Matsuyama is typically an elite ball striker, but had been only above average with his iron play until recently. Not including The Open (no strokes gained data) he had gained 5.1, 4.1, 2.2, 8.6, 5.6 on approach before slightly losing in Detroit on his way to a missed cut. To go along with the strong ball striking, I am playing the motivational factor here as Hideki has not won the Sony Open in January of 2022 and ranks only 54^th in the FedExCup standings with two weeks to play. I am anticipating a focused Hideki this week who seems to have put the injuries in the past and continue to build of his strong 13^th place result from last week and hopefully contend in a weaker field event.

Others Considered: Tony Finau ($10,600), Stephan Jaeger ($9,100)

DFS Mid Tier Play

Mark Hubbard

Salary: $8,300

The last couple months have seen Hubbard play some high-end golf, including back-to-back top tens at the John Deere and Barracuda. Hubbard also has top tens to his name in Canada and at the Charles Schwab and it is these high-end finishes that has me excited to deploy him in my lineups. Hubbard has only lost on approach once since April, which was in Detroit, like Hideki, resulting in a missed cut. In addition to his iron play, Hubbard is one of the best in the field on par 4s (15^th over the last 24 rounds) and does his best work on the greens when it is Bentgrass surfaces like we have this week. Hubbard posses another accuracy off the tee that he shouldn’t find himself in too much trouble regarding the water at TPC Twin Cities and most importantly can score enough to finish near the top of the leaderboard, ranking 5^th in the field in birdies or better. The betting number wasn’t where I was hoping, but I will happily use him as an anchor in my lineups.

Others Considered: J.T. Poston ($8,400), Austin Eckroat ($7,500)

DFS Value Play

Brandon Wu

Salary: $7,300

The $7K range is back to being littered with options this week now that DraftKings went back to their regular pricing formula. What appeals to me about Wu (besides his low ownership projections, but that is the icing on top) his strong off the tee game. He is not very long, but he is accurate and as I have mentioned previously, that is important on this course. Brandon was able to navigate similar courses that had lots of water danger present with top 20 finishes at both THE PLAYERS and The Honda Classic. Wu also ranks inside the top 25 in par 4 scoring and birdies or better gained. For possibly the last guy or second to last guy in my lineup, he excels at a lot of the things I am looking for this week and feel good about clicking his name this week.

Others Considered: Michael Kim ($6,900), Ben Griffin ($7,100)

Betting Card

Hideki Matsuyama +1900

Sahith Theegala +4500

Taylor Pendrith +6000

Austin Eckroat +8000

Cameron Champ +8000

Ben Griffin +11000

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