The one thing I love the most about baseball is the underdog ALWAYS has a chance.

Alot fans of other sports will jokingly talk about how the best college team could beat the worst pro team and I often just roll my eyes.

But in baseball, yes. That is true.

The best college team, with a starter (presumably a major MLB prospect) that is on their game, can conceivably throw 9 innings of perfect baseball, while the offense can bunt a guy on, steal a base, have a passed ball get them to third and a sac fly to score the game’s only run.

Boom. College team wins.

That kind of unpredictability can only really happen in baseball.

So, when it comes to making bold proclamations, it is just more fun to do in baseball.

There is an element of luck and randomness that goes into every MLB player’s seasons. Just because someone hits the ball really hard, doesn’t mean they will hit 30 homers.

Just because someone doesn’t hit the ball hard, doesn’t mean they won’t hit 30 homers.

Just because a team spends a billion bucks doesn’t mean they’re going to win the World Series.

There are 162 games of flares, seeing eye grounders, ‘just a bit outsides’ and everything in between that accumulate in all kinds of different results that cannot be totally predicted with any degree of absolute certainty.

I love baseball. I always will.

With this love and willingness to embrace the unpredictable nature of the sport, I proudly make my bold predictions.

Josh Hader will save 50+ games for the Astros in 2025

I make this prediction with two things in mind.

First, Hader is an elite closer. He has a ton of swing and miss potential (whopping 20.5% SwStr% last year). His barrel rate has a odd/even year up and down nature to it. Starting with 2020’s 14.7% it goes:

• 14.7%
• 6.3%
• 11.5%
• 4.4%
• 10.2%

My expert math brain says he is due to limit barrels this year (hey, it’s baseball. this stuff is weird).

My expert math brain also sees a 2.38 SIERA backing up his 3.80 ERA.

Second, the Astros are going to play in more close games this year.

They lose Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman and replace them with Isaac Paredes, Christian Walker and Cam Smith.

Now Smith may just continue to slug like he has in spring training, but he is fighting an uphill battle on that front. I’m not a Cam Smith truther. I am rooting for him. He seems like a great dude.

He may prove me wrong and just go HAM. But odds are he is wildly inconsistent and shows signs of growing pains in the bigs.

This means Houston will be in more dog fights and will turn to their big dog in the ninth more often.

Boom.

50 saves.

Seiya Suzuki hits 35+ homers

Suzuki hits that ball hard.

The barrel rate has been 10.5% + every season and the hard-hit rate has been 48%+ the last two years.

He has solid bat-to-ball skills with a 77%+ contact rate in every MLB season.

But what he did last year was he started to lift the ball with a 16.2 degree launch angle.

He makes a ton of contact. That contact is hard. And he lifts the ball.

If he ends up staying healthy and getting to 630+ plate appearances, then 35 bombs are in the cards.

Yandy Diaz hits 26+ homers

He smacked 22 bombs in 2023 so this may not be my most BOLD prediction but given his history as a contact-first 1B with limited power, this is pretty bold.

But what he did in 2023 was have a barrel rate of 9.5%, just the second time he had a 9%+ barrel rate in his career.

The other season?

2019 when the barrel rate was 9.2% and he hit 14 in just 347 plate appearances.

Last year the barrel rate overall was 7.6% but the second half of 2024, he barreled it at 10.5% rate.

We have around 1.5 seasons of a nice barrel rate out of him, and he has a track record of a ton of hard contact.

All he has to do is keep barreling it with the same elite hard-hit rates, then he should have no problem getting to 26 homers.

Nick Gonzalez goes 15/15 with a .280 average

He wouldn’t be the first early round draft pick to take some extra loving and seasoning to finally put it all together in the bigs.

After many years of way-too-high K-rates, he has cut his K rate down to 16.2% last year while obtaining a 77.0% contact%, including a solid 82.6% Z-Contact%.

And with an xBA of .270, a .280 average isn’t too far-fetched.

The barrel rate was respectable at 7.9% and he got the launch angle up to 13.0 degrees. Not fantastic, but enough to support the notion he can get to 15 bombs.

And with a 93rd percentile sprint speed, sure. Give him 15 steals.

Mackenzie Gore will finish as a top 25 starter

He had a very up and down 2024, but the stuff is electric, and his final month of the season was insane.

Gore owned a 1.26 ERA (2.89 FIP) and a 31.8% K rate.

His April (3.19 ERA 29.0% K rate) and May (2.89 ERA, 29.3% K rate) were stellar as the dog-day months were…. ugly.

Overall, he ended last year with 3.53 FIP while allowing a ton of soft contact. It was just a 6.8% barrel rate against him last year with a 37.8% hard-hit rate.

He has an electric curveball that returned a 34.0% whiff rate and xStats against it that are elite (.237 xwOBA, .258 xSLG).

His fastball has a ton of life to it, as he needs to live more up in the zone with it as he has elite extension (7.0 inches, 89th percentile), velocity (96.0 MPH, 80th percentile) and induced vertical break (17.6 inches).

But the fastball got destroyed last year and his heat map shows he put the damn thing way too much in the heart of the plate last year. Doesn’t matter how good the pitch is, fastballs down the pipe are…. bad.

But there is no doubt the dude has the stuff.

And last year he had great bread on his season sandwich while the middle was uninspiring (I’m hungry as I write this…).

Jeremiah Estrada leads the Padres in Saves

First, let me explain why it is not going to be Robert Suarez.

There are some very concerning numbers from Suarez from 2024 that made him one of my big closer fades in for the 2025 draft season.

He had a really high 80.8% strand rate and a really low .256 BABIP.

The barrel rate of 7.7% and hard-hit rate of 40.4% are not horrible numbers, but when he allows a 40.7% fly ball rate… it is a bit too risky and makes me believe the 3.81 xFIP a bit more.

He also allows a ton of contact for a closer with a 77.5% contact% as he doesn’t have much K upside with just a 22.9% K rate, that was preceded by a 22.2% rate in 2023.

I like Jason Adam but his 1.95 ERA had an xERA of 3.14 and 3.10 SIERA backing it up and we are one season removed from a 12% barrel rate against him.

Jeremiah Estrada, in my humble opinion, is their best arm in the bullpen.

His 2.95 ERA was backed up with a 2.53 xERA, 2.07 FIP and 2.39 SIERA.

The barrel rate against him was 5.2% to go with a 37.0% hard-hit rate.

And he has ELITE swing-and-miss potential with his 18.2% SwStr% leading to his awesome 13.87 K/9.

Josh Jung receives AL MVP votes

I’ve got my Scarlette and black colored glasses on with this prediction (Wreck ‘Em Tech)

Jung was derailed in his sophomore campaign after getting hit by a pitch on April 1 last year.

His rookie campaign he hit 23 homers with a .266 batting average. He owned an 11.9% barrel rate and a 47.1% hard-hit rate.

It stands to reason that his return from his wrist injury in 2024 hurt his power potential but he still kept a solid 82.9% Z-con% while still barreling it at a 9.1% rate and an elite 38.2% launch-angle sweet spot%.

He now has had a full off season to recover, and I think we see those elite barrel and hard-hit rates come back.

Jung has the power to hit 30+ homers and hitting in the middle of a Ranger offense that should be improved, he should be able to get 100+ RBI while maintaining a solid average.

Yusei Kikuchi finishes as a top 25 starter

Kikuchi’s 2024 in Toronto was very unlucky, as evidenced by a 3.51 SIERA backing up his 4.75 ERA.

More sliders and a move to the Astros midseason helped him regress toward that lower SIERA as he had a 2.70 ERA in Houston, which was backed up by a 2.87 SIERA.

He struck out hitters at a 31.8% to go with a very nice 5.9% walk rate.

Kikuchi also allowed a 46.3% ground ball rate in Houston.

A ton of swings and misses, to be paired with a good amount of ground balls will take the sting out of the admittedly too hard-for-comfort hard-hit data.

All those strikeouts, ground balls and ERA estimators tell me he is poised for a great 2025. I have him rostered in multiple leagues, and I can’t wait.

Ivan Herrera ends the season as a top 10 catcher.

Yes, there is a small sample caveat here, but Herrera impressed nonetheless in 2024.

He hit .301 with five homers in 259 plate appearances.

First, the average is totally legit. Not only was the xBA a healthy .293, he made plenty of hard contact with a 41.9% hard-hit rate and 8.9% barrel rate.

He also maintained an awesome 27.0% line drive rate.

Not only did he hit a ton of hard liners, he made a ton of contact in general with 9.4% SwStr% with an 86.5% z-con%.

The elite batting average alone gets him in the top 12 conversation at catcher.

But just a slight improvement upon his 9.2 degree launch angle, he could be in line for 15-20 homers.

The biggest obstacle is the Cards affinity for Pedro Pages and his ability to throw out runners being far superior to Herrera.

But Herrera is above average at blocking and framing (per statcast), so he is no slouch behind the plate and he has a superior bat that will be sorely needed in a bit of a paltry lineup in St. Louis. Thus, I believe the playing time will be there for Herrera to achieve this prediction.

Spencer Schwellenbach will receive NL Cy Young votes

Not having a single share of Schwelly this year pains me to no end.

There wasn’t a single player that I had sniped off my queue more than him.

When I thought I’d be bold and take him in the fourth round, someone would take him in the third.

Oh well, it be like that sometimes.

But I will be admiring him from a far this year.

His rookie season could not have gone much better.

First, his ERA of 3.35 was more than supported by the underlying metrics:

• 3.44 xERA
• 3.29 FIP
• 3.42 SIERA

The contact was 2-ply:

• 41.6% GB%
• 4.7% barrel rate
• 87.6 MPH avgEV

He flashed great swing-and-miss potential with a 13.5% SwStr% so he is going to get strikeouts.

He limits walks with an elite 34.2% chase rate, leading to a 4.6% walk rate to go with his 25.4% K rate.

Schwellenbach is a stud in the making.