NFL Divisional Round Preview: Rams @ Eagles

  • Rams (+6.5) @ Eagles (-6.5)

    O/U 43.5

     

    Important notes for Rams: 

    As much as we could talk about how poor the last month has been for this receiving core, particularly from Cooper Kupp, it’s fair to say that The receivers just simply are not the key for this matchup for the Rams to pull out a win, considering the weather. What’s even more concerning for the Rams is that Stafford, at this point of his career, is pretty stationary and doesn’t move around the pocket as well as he used to early in his career, so with the snow, extra pressure from the Eagles defensive line is going to be a huge concern. Ultimately, it will be the Kyren Williams show. As exciting as his red zone and touchdown prowess is, he will need to be more effective throughout the entire field, not just in the run game but in the short pass game, as he is going to be the clear focus of this Rams offensive attack. 

    Important notes for Eagles: 

    For the Eagles note section, Let’s begin with that weather forecast Parts of the Philadelphia area are forecast to get between three and six inches of snow Sunday, according to AccuWeather and “Cloudy and colder with snow developing before lunchtime, high 34. Snow will develop southwest to northeast. This is a mostly all snow event for our area with some initial mixing possible near the coast. Expect several hours of steady snow with 1″/hour rates possible,” per Brittany Boyer of Action News. This is ultimately the most essential note of the game but it also really pertains to the Eagles, as Saquon Barkley has just simply been incredible this season. It looks like even resting him in Week 18 was even more of the right choice, as expecting 30 carries plus for him seems more likely than not. For more weather focus, make sure to check the up-to-date weather report from our man, Larry Vannozzi.

     The QBs

     Matthew Stafford is actually a real concern in this game. As we mentioned in the notes tab previously, he just doesn’t move around as well as he used to, and even though he has experience in snow games, such as the one against the Eagles in 2013 (If you haven’t watched that game, please go ahead and do so)   as expected with age, it just isn’t the same Matthew Stafford.  On the positive side, Stafford has been excellent in terms of total yardage this year. He finished the season with 3,762 total yards passing ( 13th best in the NFL) and a pretty solid QPR of 64.9 (12th in the NFL). Ironically, that exact QPR  is Stafford’s career number against the Eagles. While the total yardage won’t necessarily matter in terms of weather, it’s important to note that the short pass game will be key and getting the ball out as quickly as humanly possible. The story is interesting for Jalen Hurts. This Eagles team with receiver depth, including A.J. Brown,  DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert, are all super effective in short route concepts, even though it has undoubtedly not been perfect. Interestingly, this could create opportunities later in the game for some deep ball opportunities. Hurts scrambling ability also makes this offense very dangerous in this weather from a passing game standpoint. Hurts mainly is hitting above 70% on his short pass game compared to Matthew Stafford, who is hitting between 68-75% on his short pass game (Huge thank you to BaseballGG24 on Reddit for this information. Please note that this information is subject to change.) https://www.reddit.com/user/BaseballGG24/submitted/

    The RBs

    The running backs are the most fun aspect of this matchup. The last time Saquon Barkley played the Rams, he had one of the greatest days in the history of the Super Bowl Era as he rushed for 255 yards on 26 carries with two touchdowns and finished the night with 46.2 PPR fantasy points. While it’s unfair to expect a repeat performance on that fantastic day, it is worth noting that Barkley has hit above 25 carries five times this season, including the last time he hit the field in Week 17 against Dallas with 31.  So, as we said earlier in this article, it’s not necessarily a bizarre thought that he would finish with 30 carries on Sunday. In contrast, Kyen Williams Has only hit above that 25-carry mark twice in a back-to-back 29-carry performance against the Bills and 49ers in Week 14 and 15, respectively. The more concerning thing for the Rams is that he must be a considerable part of the short, quick passing game. Still, the most he’s hit in terms of receptions and Targets this season wasn’t week 8 against the Minnesota Vikings, going 5-of-7 for 19 yards and a touchdown that will have to be significantly improved on Sunday afternoon.  Of course, the big story for Williams is his incredible touchdown prowess, as he finished the season with 14 touchdowns (Tied 5th best in the NFL).

    The WRs

    While Puka Nacua and Smith have been pretty consistent this season, let’s focus more on how A.J. Brown and Cooper Kupp mirror each other statistically.  Bizarrely, A.J. Brown has only hit a maximum of eight targets throughout the regular season. It wasn’t much better last weekend against the Packers, as he only had one reception. Cooper Kupp hasn’t necessarily been that much better, and since Week 13, he’s only hit a maximum of eight targets himself. That matchup was against Buffalo when he went 5-of-8 for 92 yards and a touchdown in that offensive barrage. It’s fascinating how much they mirror each other statistically. Considering the weather conditions, imagining it will be any better is tough.

    The TEs

    The weather condition concern even goes for the tight ends. But it’s essential to know that the tight end is a safety valve in these situations, even more than usual. Dallas Goedert has been that this season when healthy. Unfortunately, Tyler Higbee has not had a clean bill of health this year as well but thankfully, it looks like he will play after a pretty scary situation on Monday night. Statistically, these two aren’t much to write home about, but again, seeing their value as historically tight ends find success in snowy weather.   

    Best Bet: Saquon Barkley 1+ rushing touchdowns, Kyren Williams 80+ rushing yards

    (Written By Brandon Furtado) 

    The weather is going to be awful in Philadelphia for this game. Both rushing attacks will have to show up in order for either team to have a chance to win. Barkley only has two rushing touchdowns in the last five weeks and both scores came against the Commanders. The last time he played the Rams, he broke records and had one of the greatest rushing games of all time, totaling 302 total yards and two rushing touchdowns. With the snowy weather, he should get a huge workload and find the end zone again.

    On the flip side, Williams needs to have a solid day if the Rams have any chance at winning. He hasn’t rushed for 80 or more yards the last two games, but rushed for 85 or more in the four games prior to that. Matt Stafford cannot afford to throw the ball that much in this game. The Rams o-line is going to have a tough time holding up against the number one defense in the league, so this bet may be a little tricky. Overall, expect them to pound the football with Williams quite a bit.