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June 3, 2025, 9:43 amLast Updated on June 3, 2025 9:51 am by Jon Mosales | Published: June 3, 2025
When we talk about lost seasons, the Miami Dolphins are on the front lines as they finished 8-9 and transitioned from from an explosive team that could gash defenses in the air or on the ground to a one-dimensional squad that wasn’t really a threat anywhere on the field. The most staggering fall from grace came from the rushing game which finished 1st in rushing TDs and yards-per-rush cratering all the way to 23rd and 28th last season. It starts with the o-line which fell off a cliff and lost Terron Armstead to retirement. They couldn’t keep Tua Tagovailoa from getting another concussion and despite the ball out a the quickest rate in the league and they couldn’t run-block to save their lives, ranking 26th in both RBYBC/rush (0.73). It didn’t help that Raheem Mostert looked his age getting hurt in Week 1 and never got back on track and sophomore lightning bolt De’Von Achane isn’t exactly a bell cow when running between the tackles. Achane still had a great season (RB6), taking Alvin Kamara’s mantle as the best receiving back in the league while leading the pack in receiving yards/receptions/receiving TDs and also playing 17 games. A team that looked poised to be offensively unstoppable is now one season later without a direction or plan to stay afloat in the AFC East.
Like with most teams, the problems start at the QB position as Tua when healthy is solid, but now after only playing 11 games last season, has now only played more than 13 games once in his five-year career. The overall numbers aren’t great, but he still finished as the QB15, only one fantasy point-per-game behind Kyler Murray. Even at his best and with the offense running on all cylinders, the best finish he’s had is the QB9. The problem is the offense was not running efficiently and while we can spread the blame around, it’s hard to ignore the Cheetah sized Elephant in the corner. Tyreek Hill went from a top-five pick, fresh off a WR2 season tumbling all the way down to the WR21. He was arrested before Week 1, but that proved to be his best game of the season and it went downhill from there. Hill had nine games under 50 yards receiving and while he was dealing with an injured wrist and backup QB Tyler Huntley for portions of the season, he never looked right and could finally be hitting the WR age cliff which comes for everyone. This will be his age 31 season and his game has always been based on generational speed, but if that even slips a little bit, Hill’s best days could be behind him. The plan was to have Jaylen Waddle take over or at least be the Tee Higgins to Hill’s Ja’Marr Chase, but with b2b finishes outside the top-30 WRs, Waddle is officially more hype than substance. Waddle is still the same guy who broke the rookie record for receptions, but this Miami team screams stayaway at this juncture. Waddle either doesn’t have it in him to be WR1 or Hill is going to continue to dominate the TS (21.7% to 14.6%) to the point Waddle will need to find greener pastures in order to reach his ceiling.
Writer’s Season Win Prediction: 8-9
The Miami hierarchy of fantasy studs is ever-changing as Hill was locked as the alpha star that everyone else orbited around, but that is no longer the case. Achane is the engine of this team and he was the RB1 in FPPG when Tua was healthy. While peak-Tyreek could power an entire offense by stretching the field and getting open regardless of how many defenders were on him, it remains to be seen if you can build a top-10 offense around a pass-catching running back. His rookie mark of 7.8 YPC regressed to a still solid 4.6, but if the Dolphins had any semblance of an o-line, Achane would easily average 5.0 YPC and be able to consistently get into the second level and shift into his game-breaking third gear. The question is what do we do with Achane this season as there isn’t much room between his ceiling, ADP and potential production. Health will always be a problem as Achane is only 5-9 and weighs around 85 KG. The real crux of the issue is that Achane finished second in tackles for loss (38) and that is the stat that tells the story. Without the size to break through tackles, Achane needs a clean seam to explode through and too often he was stuck in neutral and on the ground before the play essentially even started. Achane is a perfect multi-tool weapon, but we’ve seen too many times that the o-line is what separates elite RBs from reaching that true superstar level and this season I see more of the same.
It feels almost insulting to go this long without mentioning the TE breakout of Jonnu Smith. Smith has been around the block and has always had the rep of the hyper-talented TE who can’t put it all together that gets attached to so many almost-stars. He posted career-highs with 884 yards and eight TDs and for many games he was the biggest threat on the field. He finished third in YAC for a TE with 540 yards and second in broken tackles (8). This doesn’t look like a fluke season and his numbers weren’t propped up by one crazy week. Instead it was a remarkably consistent season considering everything around him was in shambles, Smith had nine top-10 finishes and is a great bet against Hill or Waddle having bounce-back season. If you think Hill is going to retake his place on WR mountain, than don’t draft Smith, but if you think he’s on a steep downward trajectory, than Smith is the safest bet on the roster.
Player most likely to beat ADP: Jonnu Smith (ADP 80, TE6)
Of the five TEs going ahead of him, only Brock Bowers and Trey McBride are likely to finish with more counting stats. TDs are unpredictable, but red zone targets aren’t and Smith had 18 and was only three away from leading the league. I don’t have much faith in the Dolphins and while they do have plenty of intriguing parts, Smith seems to be the one with safest floor and bankable upside. This is going to be a pass-heavy offense and Smith could easily emerge as Tua’s favorite and most trusted target next season.
Player most likely to fade based on ADP: Tyreek Hill (ADP 31, WR14)
Two seasons ago, Hill has nine grabs for 40+ yards and last season he had one. That’s all I need to know because Hill’s game was special because he got behind the secondary no matter how hard they try to keep him in front. If he’s not doing that, he’s just another fast WR and I can find plenty of those who aren’t north of 30.
Late-round Flier that could blow up: Jaylen Wright (ADp 139, RB48)
If you are looking for the next Achane at a fraction of the cost, look no further. The Dolphins moved on from Raheeem Mostert and are mixing speed with speed. Wright didn’t have a great rookie season, but the o-line can take most of the blame, but he’s got the right stuff to excel in this offense. If something happens to Achane, Wright could give you 60% of what Achane does for 1/10th cost.
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I have been crazy about fantasy sports even before I knew what it was. Some people use stats as a tool and some use the eye test. I like to believe I have the perfect blend of both and that extra special spider sense that separates me from the herd. I have been nominated for one FSWA Football Article of the Year award and am just getting started. My only fear is that I will become too good at fantasy football and have to retire early like Michael Jordan. You won’t see me leave my house without at least one of my (four) dogs and if you are lucky enough, you will catch me cruising top-down with all four in tow.
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