Looking Back to Look Forward

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  • By Jon Mosales

    Last Updated on August 13, 2025 1:49 pm by Jon Mosales | Published: August 13, 2025

    You won’t find many many people in the fantasy football space who are as focused on the past to predict the future because everyone just wants to throw advanced stats at the wall and see what sticks.  Every season there are trends and blueprints that get established and some of them seem obvious after the fact.  Everyone would win their league if they got to draft after the season or at least I hope they would, but how do we use last season’s draft to help us with the one coming.  That’s the real secret because if can master the past, we should have a better handle on the future.  I am going to build the perfect team through four rounds from last season and see if that can help me navigate this upcoming fantasy football season.

    I will go another four rounds later as those middle rounds can make or break your fantasy football season.

    1st round:

    The Bad: It’s a popular cliche to say “you can’t win your league in the first round, but you can lose it”, but it was never more true last season.  Breece Hall, Tyreek Hill and Christian McCaffrey were all first round picks and generally went top-five, but it was nearly impossible to win your league if you took the plunge.  CMC was already injured, so that was a red flag most of us willfully ignored, Hall only has the one season with an elite finish (RB2 in 2023), so it was a gamble and Hill is right at the age-cliff which comes for everyone.  CMC and Hill seem a little obvious now, but Hill looked truly elite two seasons ago and no one could see the decline coming last season, but it’s a warning not to chase superstars into their twilight.

    The Good: Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson and Amon-Ra St. Brown were the safest bets at WR and Jahmyr Gibbs, Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry and Bijan Robinson were the way to go at RB.  Breece Hall and CMC were the only busts at RB and Jonathan Taylor was the only so-so pick, but he was still the RB7 in FPPG.  The superstar RBs came through for fantasy GMs which hasn’t always been the case.

    The Perfect: Any team that went Chase early or Gibbs/Barkley late was a monster and those were the ideal picks in the first round.  Gibbs was only a sophomore, but the DET o-line and offense was clearly poised for greatness.  The player might not be as important as the situation as everyone in the first round is an insane athlete.  The CIN offense combined with their terrible defense made for the perfect fantasy cocktail.

    This season: Now, unless you are doing an auction draft, where you draft is going to be the determining factor for which player you can draft, but ADP is often a little overrated and you should get who you think is the best player, not who Yahoo/Sleeper/ESPN think is best.  The endgame is here is maximize the ceiling because if we get the RB1/WR1, it’s a massive boost.  The key though is not to chase ceiling at the expense of increased risk.  As great as ceiling is, the most important factor is minimizing risk and ensuring you still at minimum top-10 positional production.  Chase/Barkley are 1/2 in ADP, so it’s a miracle if they are there for you, but whose got the least risk while still maintaining upside.  It has to be St. Brown.  He’s finished as the WR3 in b2b seasons and has no real threats to usage and the DET offense should be amazing.  He’s not really sexy as he won’t be the WR1, but if we want a little more upside, we could draft Nico Collins.  The only problem is, he’s played 14/10/15/12 games in his career, so the injury risk is real if it’s only going to be a short term injury.  You should never think about missing before you shoot, but in fantasy, you have to play out all scenarios, but whether you want to chase ceiling or rely on floor is ultimately up to you.

    2nd round:

    The Bad: It’s crazy how much the wheels fell off in just the second round last season.  Marvin Harrison Jr. had all the hype in the world, but it didn’t really translate with a WR30 finish.  Travis Etienne was an abomination, finishing as the RB39 after being the RB3 the season before.  The red flags were there with a terrible o-line and a meager sub-four YPR, but it’s not like Tank Bigsby stole the job.  Cooper Kupp/Brandon Aiyuk/Isiah Pacheco and Chris Olave all suffered injuries, so it’s hard to really judge there.  Only Pacheco looks to have rebounded though and the rest carry MASSIVE question marks going into this season.


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    The Good: Puka Nacua and Mike Evans were great despite suffering injuries, so it’s hard to post-judge them, but this season the red flags carry over and both are DND for me.  Same goes for Davante Adams and Deebo Samuel, who are both headed for a steep decline this season.  Kyren Williams was reliable, but he’s not explosive at all and could lose his job at any moment despite just signing a big deal.  He’s probably headed to another top-10 season, but there are legitimate risks that the floor could fall out.  Josh Allen went late-second in many drafts and he was a stud as always, but he’s not worth it as BUF has clearly pivoted to a run-first, defense-first approach that limits Allen’s ability to attack downfield.

    The Perfect: I can’t believe I am saying this, but the only perfect pick in the entire 2nd round was Drake London.  Obviously Nico Collins was the breakout superstar, but he still got hurt and missed nearly five games with a hamstring injury.  London was great from the jump and only suffered because Kirk Cousins lost his fastball.  London looks to be even better this season and is approaching must-draft on ATL offense that is going to be extremely dangerous.  London is going around the mid-way point of the second round, but don’t expect him to fall for you.

    This season: There are no indications that the 2nd round is going to be a mess again, but it’s possible.  You know who is still in the 2nd round.  Drake London.  Michael Penix Jr. targeted London at insane amount (albeit over three games) and as long as Penix can stay healthy, London is a sure-fire superstar.  Also, I would highly recommend going elite TE, especially if you are going to wait on QB.  Brock Bowers, George Kittle and Trey McBride are exponentially more explosive and productive than the rest of the position (minus maybe Mark Andrews) and with the potential risk of drafting a dud at WR/RB, I will going TE in the second round every time.  If that doesn’t work for you or if both are gone, London is the best option and maybe still the best if both TEs are still there.  I don’t believe in going QB early with all the depth, but if you went Lamar Jackson, I wouldn’t judge you since he was a full fantasy tier better than every other QB last season.

    3rd Round

    The Bad: If you went early TE last season and drafted Travis Kelce or Sam LaPorta, you probably have second thoughts about going elite TE this season.  There weren’t as many outright busts as the second round, but many underperformed like Jaylen Waddle and Michael Pittman, but that’s as much on the QB as the WRs, if not more.  DK Metcalf and DJ Moore also weren’t great and it should be a real wake up call that you don’t just draft the WR, you essentially draft the QB as well.  Devonta Smith (WR17 in FPPG) was the only WR who didn’t have a down season and it still wasn’t great as PHI threw the least amount of passes in the league.

    The Good: Josh Jacobs really solidified the bad team to good team theory that Barkley crushed as Jacobs had one of the best seasons of his career going from a terrible team to a perennial playoff one. De’Von Achane was a beast as well, but that seems more like an outlier as the MIA o-line is terrible and his production is also tied to his QBs questionable health.  Pat Mahomes showed why he’s not a elite fantasy QB anymore and him and Kelce both falling off was somewhat predictable if you paid attention to the signs.

    The Perfect: Malik Nabers reinforced the need for drafting rookie WRs as he broke records and was truly elite despite the dumpster fire of QBs that were throwing him the ball.  Elite WRs still need reliable QBs, but transcendent superstars are QB proof.  Now, with Russell Wilson, his ADP has skyrocketed, but is there enough balance between the WR and his QB.  Maybe, maybe not.

    This season: There is plenty of talent with question marks again this season.  The clear-cut choices seem to be Chase Brown and Jaxon Smith-Njigba.  Both are ascending and while Brown has a smaller resume, he showcased his dual-threat dominance (Weeks 9-17 was RB4 in FPPG) and CIN is the exact kind of offense we want to invest in.  SEA is a different story as they changed QBs and OCs and will be going to a more run-heavy approach after being a top-five passing volume offense.  Part of fading Kupp this season is embracing JSN as he could vie for the league leader in targets.  In Weeks 9-18,JSN was the WR8 in fantasy points per game, ranking 11th in target share (25.4%), tenth in receiving yards per game (82.4), and ninth in yards per route run and first downs per route run.  The smart money is on fading the older WRs like Hill, Evans and Adams.  All three might not fall off, but I would be SHOCKED if 2/3 beat their ADP.  The 3rd round is almost more attractive than the 2nd as there is plenty of value if you are willing to buy the dip on Breece Hall and/or MHJ.  James Cook was one of my big winners last season, but we’ve seen too many times that players who skip training camp/preseason are under-prepared for the rigors of the regular season.

    4th Round

    The Bad:  There were plenty of land mines in this round, but some that were unexpected like Rashee Rice tearing his ACL early in the season.  Stefon Diggs was a natural fade as well as Anthony Richardson and Kyler Murray as this was not the range to target QBs.  Rachaad White proved that we shouldn’t trust the RB just because he starts as the season as the RB1.  This is a lesson that should be stapled to our foreheads as this season has plenty of situations where veterans are currently ahead of rookies, but for how long (Kyren Williams)?  Joe Mixon defied the odds going to a terrible o-line and having a great season, but he’s currently injured and I couldn’t hate him more this season.  Amari Cooper hit the age-cliff fast, but he’s just more proof that when it goes, it goes fast.  Pay attention to the older WRs.

    The Good: Mark Andrews shrugged off a slow start and might have even been dropped, but he rallied to lead all TEs in TDs (11).  With Isaiah Likely having foot surgery, I’m back on the Andrews bandwagon for one last ride.  James Connor was solid and really rejuvenated his career, but he’s right on the edge of decline and this season he will lose snaps to Trey Benson, as long as Benson proves he’s actually competent.  George Pickens and Zay Flowers were both solid, but not spectacular and now both are on two of the best passing offenses in the league, they are solid targets due to volume and opportunity.  They were WR24 and WR41, but Pickens gets the massive QB upgrade.  Flowers might be the WR1 on his team, but Pickens has legit WR1 upside if his attitude finally catches up to his talent.

    The Perfect:  Trey McBride might have gone nearly the entire season without a rec TD (still the TE2), but that’s not really his fault.  His ADP is around 30, so he won’t be there in the 4th, but I am supremely confident he is about to deliver one of the great fantasy seasons in TE history.  James Cook was the only player that was swinging leagues in this round and he’s the proof that TDs are really fluky season to season.  He had two rushing TDs two seasons ago and then 16 last season.

    This season:  This might be the last run of borderline elite RBs as Omarion Hampton is up for grabs as well as the other end of the age spectrum in James Connor.  Connor has the pedigree, but the end is coming whereas Hampton has young legs and is on a great team with a great o-line.  Chuba Hubbard is probably the unsexist pick here who has the best chance of a top-10 season.  He was the RB13 last season and the CAR offense is going to take a leap forward.  I would go Hubbard, Hampton, Connor if you want to go RB and you should go RB.  Alvin Kamara and David Montgomery are available and I am TERRIFIED about Kamara unless he gets traded and Montgomery is no longer going to be in a 50/50 timeshare.  Gibbs is too good, expect more 65-35 at best.

    This isn’t exactly a blueprint on how to navigate the first four rounds, but it’s a still a map that will prevent you from sabotaging your own fantasy team and careening into the rocks.  Fantasy football is just as much about who you don’t pick as who you do end up choosing.  The best team doesn’t always win, but the team that self-sabotaged their own draft will never win.

    August 13, 2025, 1:49 pm