Fantasy Football: Second-Year WR Breakouts

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  • By raywlin

    Last Updated on May 11, 2023 12:28 pm by Dan Besbris | Published: August 15, 2022

    We are in the midst of an unprecedented streak of elite wide receiver quality coming out of the NFL Draft in consecutive years and making a big impact on fantasy. Simply look at most preseason fantasy rankings for 2022 and not only are two (Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase) of the consensus top three receivers from the past two draft classes, they’re even from the same school! Many of Chase’s fellow 2021 draft classmates have made record-breaking fantasy splashes already in their rookie season.

    Jaylen Waddle set a new single season rookie receptions record with 104 catches, Kadarius Toney broke Odell Beckham Jr’s Giants rookie record for most receiving yards in a game with 189 yards in his WR5 finish in Week 5, and Amon-Ra St. Brown set a new Lions franchise record for total receiving yards in a rookie season with 912 yards.

    Those three are set to continue feasting in their sophomore season, but who’s next? I’m defining “breakout” here as those pegged to significantly outperform their ADP (12-team PPR aggregated from FantasyPros). Most of the wideouts below can be had either late or free in drafts, so they’re almost guaranteed to return a positive ROI and should at the very least belong on your early season watch lists. Here’s a look at my picks for four other second-year biggest potential breakout candidates at the receiver position:

    Rashod Bateman, Ravens

    Consensus Rank: WR27, ADP: WR38, Avg Round: 8th

    Coming out of college at Minnesota, Bateman had all the individual pieces to be a fantasy star in the pros – athleticism, route-running, versatility to line up both outside and in the slot and great hands. But once it came to draft destination, Baltimore presented two main fantasy hurdles for Bateman: Marquise Brown and the Ravens’ run-heavy tendencies. Brown has since relocated via trade much closer to his Hollywood namesake in neighboring Arizona, while John Harbaugh’s offense actually ranked just outside of the Top 10 run-heaviest teams in 2021 after topping that list in 2020. Now, a big reason for the latter may have been the catastrophic losses of both budding star running back J.K. Dobbins and the perpetually underrated yet efficient veteran Gus Edwards to torn ACLs. In that 2020 run-heaviest season, the Ravens still gave Brown triple-digit targets and also hadn’t yet fully unlocked tight end Mark Andrews, who only saw 88 targets and nearly doubled that in his monster 2021 breakout to finish as TE1.

    The Ravens did nothing substantial in the draft nor free agency and trades to give any true target share competition to Bateman, so he enters 2022 with only third-year pros Devin Duvernay and James Proche (who have less than 100 career targets combined) on his tail. Pencil Bateman in for a minimum of 125 targets and the volume alone should give him a WR3 floor but with the potential for high-end WR2 status if he can use his size and hands to make a dent in the endzone.

    Rondale Moore, Cardinals

    Consensus Rank: WR56, ADP: WR63, Avg Round: 14th

    The speedy and shifty Moore becomes one of Hollywood Brown’s new teammates in the desert, and enters his second year with a lot of opportunity. Speaking of rookie receivers destroying records, Moore somewhat quietly led the entire league in catch percentage with a 84% clip (54 catches on 64 targets), the highest ever for a rookie at the position. Now that the Kyler Murray contract fiasco is over, Kliff Kingsbury will be gearing up his Air Raid offense to take a big step forward with new weapons like Brown and a year of experience under Moore’s belt.

    When news broke of DeAndre Hopkins’ six-game PED suspension, it was easy to see Moore as the biggest beneficiary. With the newly-acquired Brown occupying the outside Y-receiver spot and veteran A.J. Green in the X-receiver spot, Moore would have the slot all to himself. According to PFF, the former Purdue Boilermaker played 61% of his rookie snaps out of the slot, so he already has experience there. A recent report by AZ Central pointed to Kingsbury wanting Moore to be “more fully utilized across the offense” this season, so it’s hard to see a scenario where Moore doesn’t get unleashed as an explosive YAC weapon and realize some borderline WR3 fantasy potential in his sophomore campaign.

    Nico Collins, Texans

    Consensus Rank: 64, ADP: WR85, Avg Round: Undrafted

    With the unfortunate cloud of Deshaun Watson hanging over the Texans organization for much of last season, the surprisingly solid rookie performance by quarterback Davis Mills (2,664 yards passing, 16 TDs, 10 INT, 66% completion) seemed to reverberate much more quietly than the one from Mac Jones. The former Stanford Cardinal actually completed his passes at a higher rate than Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert and Josh Allen. Now, I’m not saying Mills is suddenly going to rub shoulders with those elite fantasy quarterbacks, but we can say that the quarterback situation in Houston can sustain fantasy relevant receivers. While Brandin Cooks quietly put together another fantasy season of 1,000+ yards receiving and six touchdowns (a mark he’s achieved now in five of his eight career seasons), Collins started to make some ripples of his own, turning 60 rookie targets into a respectable 446 receiving yards.

    The big-bodied, former third-rounder from Michigan got better as the season went on and by December, had clearly earned enough trust from Mills and the coaching staff to command double-digit targets for the first time in a career-high 69-yard game in Week 14, and capped off the season with a 67-yard performance on seven targets in Week 18. Recent training camp reports from ESPN indicate that the No. 2 receiver job is simply his to lose, and he fills a totally different role than Cooks. With a running attack still very much in rebuild mode, expect the Texans to continue to trust and develop Mills and lean on the passing game, which should lead to at least 90 targets and 12-team redraft PPR bench consideration for Collins.

    Terrace Marshall Jr., Panthers

    Consensus Rank: WR85, ADP: WR92, Avg Round: Undrafted

    While his college teammates (the aforementioned Jefferson and Chase) have set the fantasy wideout landscape on fire and helped dub LSU the unanimous “WRU”, Marshall is one Tiger whose pro impact remains dormant after a 30-target rookie year. The lack of early opportunity in his career belies the talent and potential of this former second-rounder who scored 13 TDs as a sophomore on a national championship team in 2019. Head coach Matt Rhule’s tenure with the Panthers has largely been defined by the colossal failure in the quarterback room, where they have repeatedly swung and missed and find themselves narrowing down between embattled incumbent Sam Darnold and former first overall draft pick Baker Mayfield.

    DJ Moore will continue to be the lead dog and Robbie Anderson will get his downfield looks, but with tight end not really part of the passing game yet in this offense, the WR3 role should get a healthy amount of targets. Christian McCaffrey obviously also commands a target share in this offense out of the backfield, but Rhule is in a make-or-break year for his job and he’ll likely pull out all the stops to score and win games, especially with a defense that will give up a lot of points. That will set Marshall up well to take a leap forward and deliver borderline WR4 results as a flex play with the upside for more.

    Bonus: Amari Rodgers, Packers

    ADP: WR93, Avg Round: Undrafted

    This one is a real wild card I wouldn’t consider to fit the same “breakout” criteria as the others, so I’ll offer it up as a bonus. Even though Marshall didn’t have many targets himself his rookie season, he at least has a pretty secure hold on the starting WR3 spot with only Rashard Higgins really behind him. Rodgers, meanwhile, only saw eight targets, but the reason I include him is how wide open the Packers wideout depth chart is post-Davante Adams. I like the odds of the former third-round pick from Clemson snagging a meaningful enough target share to warrant deep league consideration at some point this season. While his role wasn’t established last year, he got to learn behind a Packer veteran who has Aaron Rodgers’ trust in Randall Cobb. Packers News reported recently that Cobb has continued to mentor Rodgers (whose dad coached Cobb at Kentucky) and very interestingly pointed out that Adams himself struggled early in his career before really taking off.

    He comes from a robust fantasy receiver breeding ground at Clemson, and while he may not have the same kind of ceiling DeAndre Hopkins has, I could see him developing into a bigger Hunter Renfrow fantasy-wise if the chips fall in all the right places. The devil’s advocate view here includes some press chatter recently suggesting the Packers trade Rodgers. However, rookie receivers rarely pop immediately in Green Bay and I believe that with a year of experience and learning under his belt, he will endear himself to his MVP QB and head coach Matt LaFleur in Year 2. Keep him on watch lists in PPR and it could pay off handsomely.

    August 15, 2022, 3:43 pm