Fantasy Football Draft Guide 2025: Which Sophomore QB has the most value?

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  • Last Updated on August 25, 2025 12:54 pm by Jon Mosales | Published: August 25, 2025

    There is nothing more promising than a rookie QB heading into his second season and this fantasy draft is littered with them.  The problem is that it’s not always linear and a great rookie season doesn’t mean the sophomore season will be even better and sometimes it’s actually worse.  Sometimes there are warning signs and sometimes it’s completely unpredictable, but either way we can make an analytical assumption based on ADP and expected value to determine which QBs can meet expectations and which can exceed them.  Let’s dive in.

    The Future King

    Jayden Daniels – Daniels had arguably the best rookie QB season of all time and that’s only part hyperbole.  The WAS QB didn’t take long to heat up, posting three top-five finishes in the first four weeks and completely transformed the Commanders from a sad sack organization to one brimming with potential.  He was the QB6 in FPPG and total FPs despite essentially missing two games and there were no holes in his game.  Among QBs, he ranked: 2nd in carries, 2nd in rush yards, 3rd in designed carries and 3rd in rush TDs, but is this sort of meteoric rise sustainable or did he peak early behind an 87% 4th down conversion rate.  The Commanders are bringing back essentially the same team with the exception of a Deebo Samuel insertion that has a high chance of not panning out.  Combine that with star WR Terry McLaurin demanding a new contract and not getting one, there is a lot of uncertainty surrounding Daniels.  The o-line is still a work in progress and while the addition of Laremy Tunsil will help, it’s still a middle-of-the-pack unit that over performed last season.  

    Daniels is going as the QB3 inside the top-35 and while he’s got legitimate QB1 upside, the price tag is steep with only one season under his belt.  With rushing QBs being in vogue, it’s not surprising that Daniels is being viewed in the upper echelon, but how replicable is his rookie season.  In his 15 full games, Daniels averaged 58.2 rushing yards per game, which would have led all quarterbacks last year by 4.4 yards per game and it’s hard to bank on that kind of production without an increased injury risk.  Josh Allen has kind of broken the mold as he never gets hurt, but even Lamar Jackson has only played more than 12 games twice in the last four seasons.  The best case for Daniels’ durability is for him to make a leap in the passing game that will lessen the burden on his legs to get first downs.  He had 260 more rushing yards than the 3rd place Jalen Hurts and if he has close to 150 rushing attempts again, I don’t see him lasting the season.  The 3500 passing yards and 25 passing TDs is where he needs to make up the difference and there is no reason to think he can’t get to 4000 yards 30.  They had the 6th highest rush/pass splits 48/52 and with his accuracy (6th highest), it’s a natural transition to keep him upright and healthy for the season.  Fulfilling that transition is harder than it looks as Daniels probably feels on top of the world right now and hasn’t had to overcome over adversity to make him adapt his playing style.  I love Daniels, but I won’t be pulling the trigger on him in fantasy in any of my leagues.

     


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    August 25, 2025, 12:54 pm