What was expected?

They Rangers were coming off a 2023 World Series championship that saw them go a perfect 11-0 on the road (2-4 at home) in the 2023 postseason. They finally beat their big brother from Houston (and apparently broke their ability to win playoff games at home) en route to their franchise’s first title. The expectation was for them to compete again.

They were one of the teams facing some financial uncertainty last off season with the Bally Sports TV deal being up in the air. They did see Jordan Montgomery, MItch Garver, Aroldis Chapman and other veteran depth pieces leave but overall, the core of the title team remained intact.

They brought in both Tyler Mahle and Michael Lorenzen to help fill the void left by Montgomery. Kirby Yates and David Robertson were signed to add depth to backend of the bullpen while various vets like Jose Urena and Travis Jankowski also gave the team some length on the roster.

The problem they faced going into the season was they would not have three key starters until at least mid season as Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer and newly acquired Mahle were all recovering from their each respective injuries.

This left the rotation in the hands of Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray, Andrew Heaney, Dane Dunning, Cody Bradford and Lorenzen.

The offense was poised to continue to be strong with core hitters Adolis Garcia, Corey Seager, Marcus Semien being joined by youngsters Evan Carter, Josh Jung and Wyatt Langford.

How did it go?

Not quite as planned.

They went 78-84, 10.5 games back of the Astros for third in the AL West.

Injuries certainly played a role, for sure. Josh Jung missed a good chunk of the season, as did Evan Carter (they both had under 200 plate appearances) and injuries hit the starters that were on the roster as only two starters (Heaney and Eovaldi) made more than 19 starts. Jon Gray (19), Dane Dunning (15) and Cody Bradford (13) were unable to provide the Rangers with the starting pitcher depth needed to bridge the gap to the returns of Scherzer, deGrom and Mahle.

However, Scherzer only made nine starts, deGrom and Mahle each made three as none of them made the kind of big time impact that would spark a turnaround.

The team was also plagued by general underperformance..

They ranked 25th in team ERA (4.37) and FIP (4.32) and allowed the sixth highest BB/9 at 3.34.

Offensively, they were 22nd in wRC+ at 95 and 23rd in wOBA at .300.

While the pitching can be attributed to not having their best pitchers for a vast majority of the season, the offensive struggles included sub-100 wRC+ seasons from Marcus Semien (99), Adolis Garcia (92), Ezequiel Duran (74), Jonah Heim (70) and Evan Carter (80).

Now, Carter did only have 162 plate appearances so we can talk ourselves into thinking it was just a small sample, but Duran had the second fewest of the bunch at 285 and Heim at 491. Garcia, Semien and Heim each had plenty of appearances.

At the end of the day, they needed more from their offense to support the short handed pitching staff

Fantasy Stud?

Kirby Yates had himself of a season y’all.

He finished as the second ranked reliever this season, per Fangraphs.

He was just seventh in saves this year thanks to the poor team context but he still registered 33. His elite 1.17 ERA and 0.83 WHIP definitely helped make up for the limited save chances as did the 85 strikeouts in 61.1 innings pitched.

We saw his strikeout rate go back up to 35.9% one season after returning from three injury plagued years with only 15 appearances between 2020 and 2022. But he was a dominant bullpen arm in 2018 and 2019 for the Padres where he earned strikeout rates of 36.0% and 41.6%. So it is awesome see Yates not only get that rate back up close to his levels from his days in San Diego but he also has two straight seasons of 60+ appearances. Hopefully this means he is fully healthy and should be ready to rock and roll for 2025.

Fantasy Dud?

Unfortunately for Rangers’ fans, there are a decent number of options to choose from but none were as disappointing as Adolis Garcia. He can’t blame his poor production on injuries (unless the knee issues that plagued him late in September were present for longer than it was reported).

He was drafted inside the top-130 in preseason drafts and was far from being a top-130 player.

The bright side is he did still hit 25 homers and drove in 85. He stole 11 bases so that’s cool.

But those numbers are far from the 39 he hit last year and his streak of 100+ RBI seasons ends at two.

The batting average dropped to .224, the slugging percentage was just .400 as he turned in a wOBA of .296 and wRC+ of 92.

Those last two numbers (wOBA, wRC+) are the worst he has posted since 2021. He also had a career-worst ISO of .176.

Hopefully he can find the magic that made him a feared member of a deep Rangers lineup but he should be much cheaper next draft season.

Fantasy Surprise?

Josh Smith came into the season off fantasy radars, except in deeper leagues with an ADP outside the top-350.

But he got an opportunity to fill in for the injured Josh Jung and finished as the 15th ranked third baseman (per Fangraphs) and 19th ranked shortstop.

Any time a player can provide legit fantasy viability for standard sized league managers off their wire and for deep league managers who took him as a flyer, then that warrants our attention.

He hit 13 homers and stole 11 bases. He hit a solid .258 with a .323 wOBA and 111 wRC+.

Smith should maintain eligibility at both shortstop and third base but he did not play much outfield this year, so it’ll just be the two positions for him in 2025.

Maybe he gets a chance to crack the Opening Day starting nine in the outfield but  he  still projects to be a utility bat off the bench with limited fantasy upside in 2025.

Even if he were to get an everyday role, there are some serious questions surrounding the validity of his production moving forward.

This brings me to….

Player Breakdowns:

Hitters

Corey Seager – SS

Per Fangraphs, Seager was the 12th-ranked fantasy shortstop this season after being drafted as the eighth one off the board.

Now if he had not lost the entire month of September, he probably returns close to his draft day value.

This was his third straight season with 30 homers, He consistently has good ISO numbers with six straight years with a .211 ISO or better (.234 this season).

In fact, he’s only had two seasons with an ISO below .200.

What is probably the best thing about what he has done is get 533+ plate appearances in three straight years after missing significant time between 2018-21 (2019 was the exception). and reports are the sports hernia he suffered to end his 2024 short will not prevent him from beginning Spring Training 100%.

The three straight years of consistently hitting 30+ homers comes off a consistent increase in launch angle with three straight years of 13.0 degrees or better. Previously, he only had one year above 13.0 and that was 2019. He has always had elite barrel rates, avgEV and hard-hit rates. The only thing missing has been the launch angle.

Going into next year, we have to believe that the team context is going to get better as this lineup was filled with bats that did not live up to their known potential.

Seager should still be considered a solid top-10 shortstop in 2025.

Adolis Garcia – OF

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